RE: I don't care what anybody says24 Dec 2015 16:56
I've got to correct you hotshot, in that (in the 1000 posts I had removed - and partly because of this theme) I'd actually started to think there was a real chance that we'd lose and I was feeling so uneasy about it that I sold all but 20% of my holding (which I later increased slightly, unfortunately).
The posts got quite vicious at around that time - as this is the type of thing that message boards do not like to hear - , and I was also to blame for biting back.
But, I had thoroughly been through the accounts/annual reports and some interesting past cases again - and had started to see our chronological case as a couple of bad years for Oxus (2006 etc) at the hands of the Uzbeks, costing only a few millions -(the chairman even states the loss figures attributable to this in the Annual Reports) . But they picked up from - but then were whacked by the financial crisis - when RBS pulled out as funders a direct result.
Oxus' BOD . back in 2009/10, had quite a bad rep on iii message boards, and I'm one of the few who regarded poster davidUzbek as genuine. He's shot down - but he was right about Oxus. My subsequent phone call with him a few weeks ago strengthened my concerns (he was out there and knows the personnel involved).
I'd started to see this case as about a 30-50% chance of outright loss - but with a good chance of getting my money back. And since I was in profit here from derisking,, I saw it as a fair, if not great gamble.
Greed got the better of me and I lately put some profits back - which I'd hoped to get out on a New Year's Eve Spike!! Timing eh??
I also then was more freaked out by the Statistics that 80% of claimants lose or get less than 20% of their claim - which meant to me, that there a 4 in 5 chance we'd get next to B*gger all after legals.
I thought we'd lose Khandiza (which I stated in posts earler this year -taken off now) - and there was an interesting recent development in Churchill Mining where the Arbitrators slammed their ex-lawyers for claiming for a high sum - but then saying "but we'll also have restitution value back as a fall back"..it sounds like tokenism
That set alarm bells ringing for how arbitrators see that chancing.. I think Oxus were chancing it with Khandiza and threw it in there as part of the pot rather than a fervent belief of injustice.
Anyway, I ended with a 25%ish profit on my overall investment when it was about 50% a few weeks ago,. I'm still kicking myself like I lost money beause it feels that way to me, as I didn't keep to my own beliefs fully.
I realise there are many more in a worse situation who have lost money, and it does all leave a very hollow feeling...still sinking in.
I had my doubts about "Hero" Captain Shead and about Vice Skipper Wilkins, but I'll keep counsel on those thoughts..Is he anyone's "hero" now?