Member Info for Petr_

Unfortunately, I can´t put more powder now, as VANQ holdings is currently approx. 15% of my portfolio and increasing this ratio would be too risky :-/

Still sitting on it with my current average 1.35 pound/ share...

My 1st buy was done in 2018 for approx. 9 pound / share (before the conversion)

Fingers crossed for better tomorrows... we will see soon if new management has the capability of delivering or speaking only...

Strongly hope that there won´t be any "Market Update Ahead of Interim Results" this time...

I do even not remember when there were during the last 6 years the results above expectation...

hope this day will happen one day and the share price finds it´s bottom finally...

I don´t expect any significant news next week, but hope the reversal in the trend to be started...

Wondering, if the today´s trading update will be so extensive as the one in January... ? ;-)

GLTA!

After the optimistic vision shared yesterday,

does it mean, that the major risk (for those who have average higher 100p) except the claims issue, would be the hostile takeover bid?

Someone mentioned the question was raised to the management... any statement from management on the topic?

1/ transparency, structure

2/ clear objectives definition

3/ clear guidance

-> have much more confidence in turn around now

If it continous, todays close could be above 52p?

According to the 5 days chart, based on technical analysis, SP is for the time being moving in the UP channel, which started on value 43.5 on 18.3 ~ 3 p.m. ....

let´s see, for how long :-)

On the other way round, the more it is down, the less generated PTB would be enough for the share price recovery...

it shall be easier to grow from the small customer base / small profits, from the low market share than the other way round?

WDYT?

Let´s consider, after the recovery in 2026, the PBT would be e.g. 60M (much lower value then in some of past years) -> what would be the corresponding share price compared to the current level?

Above 1 pound?

-> those, who purchased in past for higher cost and would manage to average down close to one, there might be the change for the recovery for them within the next 2 years.

But again, there is no guarantee of any turn around / rebound for sure...

Between the price 70p and current price, there did not come ANY single NEW information.

=> what would then be justifying the delta of current 25p / share...

In the end, only facts will be, what matters...

This is short sighted view.

The sense of investing is the LONG TERM VIEW / FORECAST, not just the current P/E.

All what is missing is the current risk estimation monetization.

Once such information is known / available, market can set the adequate cost.

At the moment, it is all about FUD / weak hands.

Good information, Yankies.

Btw. if I work with the correct data, Vanquis has approx. 260 M shares.

During the last week, I see the volume of traded shares approx 25-30 M,

so approx. 10% (not sure how many of them might be traded more times...)

But this indicates, that 90% of the shares were not traded during the last week,

so up to 90% of investors still might be convinced of NON SELLING?

Regards

P.

Let´s have a look on the Vanquis share price chart

2 situations:

1/ 21.2.2020: from 466.1 the huge drop which bottomed on 15.5.2020 on 150 and then recovery came up to 360 7.1.2022

2/ 21.7.2023: from 182 the huge drop which bottomed on 25.8.2023 on 103 and then recovery came up to 133 on 16.2.2024

In the 1st case, it took 3 months to reach the bottom and in the 2nd case it took 1 month

=> to reach the bottom, might take much longer than 1 week

After the first drop, the recovery more than 100% came in approx. 18 months.

What I want to say with this:

1/ 1 DAY or 1 WEEK in the horizon of investor is NOTHING

2/ In the end, it will be FACTs what matters and not FUD / opinions

3/ Anything can happen, you either trust into the recovery or not

4/ You shall only invest what you can afford to lose and do not act in emotions or let influence yourself by the content you read on the Share Discussion, as long as there is not any CONFIRMED FACT presented there

5/ Market behavior is frequently not rational or in extremes

In the current situation, there might be the catalyst the upcoming event, but let´s see...

Cruusoe, my first one was in 2018, right after the big drop, around 900.

I´ve been averaging down to the current 140. (I wished to have that average 3 years ago :-) )

If it goes lower, I will take the risk and buy even more with intention to average down below 100

Remark:

I do not understand all those who write things like "this will go to 20" or "this will bounce back this week to 70",

as from my point of view NO ONE can predict the exact market behavior in concrete days / weeks.

If those individuals rather wrote "IMHO, based on this or that assumption I think the price might ....", I would consider them more seriously.

Like Mary wrote... this is investing, you can either lose everything or multiply your invest... everyone has his own strategy / time horizont ...

GLTA

Based on the profit warning document the dividends in the amount close to last year will be earliest in 2026 (paid for the year 2025)...

as mentioned there, for 2023 and for 2024 there will be max. 1p divi

P.

Took some more today to average down,

still keeping some more munition if price keep going down...

on this cost, 1p divi is almost 2%, better than nothing :-)

This is really sad, indeed, another disappointment,

on this price level, it makes no sense any longer even considering a selling...

At least, they issued the profit warning in advance, this is probably the only positive news compared to the old management.

Another 1-2 years of waiting, if the change in the trend ever happens ...

Let´s see the CPI data in US in 30 mins, this might influence the market sentiment for the next few days.

In general, positive is that the likelihood of "soft landing" seems to be quite high

-> in such a case, with combination of (hopefully) improving performance of Vanquis, hope to see the SP soon on the levels 130 +

Agreed, but I as there is January, I´d appreciate their forecast for 2024 in term of

A/ customer numbers Y/Y growth

B/ amounts receivable Y/Y growth from customers

C/ FY 2024 PBT guidance

Otherwise, to which KPIs/ objectives they will measure their performance for this year?

Very brief update published on the web sites, that is all? On the lower range of the guidance.

See no positive impuls for the moment.

Seems we´ll have to wait minimum another 2 months for potential impuls?