Member Info for Petr_

Putup,

your (KBW) argumentation is very rational and is based on the concrete calculation model.

As you said

A/ any model is based on assumptions which can vary in time

(therefore there is very often difference between analyst estimate and the real SP)

B/ market SP value depends as well a lot on macroeconomical factors

-> I mentioned what is my targeted (= wished) SP for 2026, as I believe, the current team can overachieve the forecast / is conservative

(e.g. now they already achieved 3% ROTE -> could be higher in S2..., and they increase the guidance for 2.6 to higher 2.6)

For sure, my view might be too optimistic and the model is more realistic.

There is fore sure even the variant the macro environment will worsen or plan won´t be executed and SP can drop to 50p or less...

On market, anything is possible.

But indeed, I acknowledge our exchange, as we are able to put concrete arguments / assumptions on the table and do not only shoot values like 4x from now in 18 months etc.

Understand,

but do not forget that market values the future expected value, not the current one...

-> it is about the building the trust into the recovery plan, the closer we are to 2027, the higher the confidence will be.

And in 2026 (next year), there will start to be the projection for 2028+

-> not excluded the SP will move higher than forecast (several months ago, forecast was 85p while the SP went to 105p ...)

Sometimes, shares appear overvalued, while sometimes undervalued...

thus, I for the case of keeping trajectory or overperforming, am optimistic and believe we will see 200p in 2026 (but to not exclude corrections...)

IMHO, the metric used by PUTUP is the correct one for this sector.

I always want to understand the P/E ratio (+ forward P/E ratio, or PEG ratio) and for this sector, I´d say 8-10 is rational.

My target SP for end of 2026 is 200p, considering the recovery will be on track.

I am please by the continuous recovery, yesterday, I broke even after several years (my avg. 110p)

I went from -40k pounds to current +7k pounds, having to keep holding and averaging down for 8 years (!).

Won´t sell any of my almost 60k shares anytime soon.

I see the SP north of 1.8 pounds for mid teens ROTE (meaning 50+ mio pounds net profit in 2027) by P/E of 8-10.

Considering the current momentum and implementation of he Gate way and risk mitigation w/ motor finance, I personally hope in the overachieving of this objective leading to even higher SP!

GLTA

One big lesson confirmed: patience and trust is a KEY!

Wouldn´t say so.

The growth was too fast, the correction was imminent.

I guess it will retrace back to 75-80 before the next leg up...

Really pleased by the action and glad I bought more to average down when SP was below 50p.

Breakeven point (105p) is much closer now, after years!

And hope more to come in the next years!

Clear, thank you for your advice!

Let´s hope CEO delivers!

From the report:

tangible book value per share = 1.48 pound / share in Dec 2024

=> 0.8 * 1.48 = 1.2 pound per share

Does it mean the fair price shall be now around 1.2 pound per share?

To calculate P/B for 2026, we´d need to understand the estimated Tangible Book Value per share in 2026?

I found in their report, that the tangible book equity is 370mio pounds.

-> mid teens ROTE (15%) shall correspond to 55 mio Eur net profit.

With the float of 250 mio shares , the EPS would be 0.22 pound.

=> for forward P/E ~ 8 -> 8*0.22 = 160p (=> conservatively, if quartal by quartal the objectives are met, we shall approach to that value in 2026)

If the growth of the tangible equity is foreseen and investors are convinced about growth prospects and would be willing to pay in forward P/E higher multiple than 8, this would imply to even higher SP target....

do you agree?

What could be the share price in 2027, if the projections of management would be met?

(Let´s consider the realistic P/E of 8-10) and mid teens (e.g. 14-15%) ROTE...

Which share price would that justify?

Based on my understanding, no dividend for 2024 and no dividend for 2025...

Seems the market sees the light on the end of the tunnel... nice recovery today....

(+) the Group returned to gross customer interest earning balance growth in 4Q24

(+) Gateway transformation -> additional 20-30mio€ savings expected as of mid 2026

(-) drifting in the mid teens ROTE objective about 1 year

=> if they can resolve / mitigate the impact of the complaint issues , could be now laid good foundations for the years to come

For sure was hoping in stronger update, but at least not -50% SP drop as in some of the previous updates...

Still mildly optimistic regarding the turn possibility around in the next 1-2 years.

Frankly, I do not expect big things.

I would just like to see improved trend compared to the last period (which I do not remember when it happened last time) and that they are on track with the plan introduced one year ago.

Would be satisfied with the slow up trend from now...

GLTA!

67 down to 50, is there anything I missed what is explaining that action?

Concerns from upcoming results?

Any new regulations?

Overall market sentiment?

IMHO: If someone considered to buy this company, they would try doing it, when share was at 0.38p level.

They could offer e.g. 0.7p premium price.

Why they would be waiting till the market capitalization pops up 50%?

The higher the SP will be, the lower probability for the take over shall be there...

Patience is KEY

GL

P.

Ok, thanks for your reply!

Nice move today.

Putup,

can you

1/ share the "Reeves news" link please?

2/ share the information about "company gets sold"? Is it just your speculation or do you have any facts for that?

Thx

P.

Answer from IR:

"We will not be producing a 4Q trading update this year, but we will be releasing our FY24 results on 13 March."