RE: Hard decisions to be made27 Sep 2019 12:40
“I don’t think CF timing of talking to the Times last week about “ PIs bought on bad advice .. etc” was helpful at all and I tend to think he’s paving the way for the inevitable liquidation. ”
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Hi, LoM. Whilst I have some sympathy with your thinking, I am afraid I don’t concur with your conclusions.
I’m not going to wax lyrical about Chris (sometwatlikekoh will only latch on to it), however, I’m more inclined to think that with his back up against the wall, the last thing a battler wants to hear is tales of woe from those who have, by all common consensus, over stretched themselves and taken on an unwise amount of risk. The Times headline that “Sirius Minerals investors were misled” has a slightly different nuance when you actually read what he did say, which was “I read stories where people seem to have over-invested or probably not taken the right advice. I feel very bad for those situations, but we have been clear about the opportunities and also the risks.”
And whether people want to admit that or not, it is true. Of course people got caught up in the excitement - it remains an exciting proposition - and I did too, however, that is not the same as being “misled”. Among other risks and warnings, every single annual report contains the following warning concerning the whole premise of investment - namely, the commodity itself.
There is a risk that fertilizer prices, including potash and polyhalite, could fall to levels at which it would not be economically viable to develop the Project. Such conditions would materially and adversely affect production, earnings and the financial position and could result in the cessation of mining activities that become uneconomic or could result in the economics of the Project not being sufficient to enable the Group to raise the next stage of funding to take the Project to production, halt or delay the development of new areas to mine, and reduce funds available for proving reserves, resulting in the depletion of reserves. There is no assurance that, even as commercial quantities of polyhalite ore are produced, a profitable market will exist for it.”
We all know small print is tedious, however, we overlook it at our own risk. And if we do choose to do so, it’s a bit rich to expect someone battling to save the livelihoods of 1000’s of staff and keep his dream alive to be anything other than polite and say little more than about it than he already has.
Regards,
per ardua ad astra