Well... that was a helluva week, huh? Brutal. No doubt about it. And no doubt made all the more discomfiting for many here by the more unsavoury, churlish and knife-twisting remarks that accompanied it.
Investors still holding will have endured their very own private Alamo as they’ve struggled to reconcile where we currently find ourselves when held against those hopes, dreams and expectations that were for many - and continue to be for some - held dear. Only we can decide when to let go of that we hold high hopes for, and each individual’s decision to call it a day or otherwise , is an entirely subjective decision predicated entirely upon their own personal to circumstances.
For my part, I remain a shareholder. And I hope others might find something in the words of Robert Bly:
“It is not our job to remain whole.
We came to lose our leaves
Like the trees,
and be born again,
Drawing up from the great roots.”
Best wishes,
per ardua ad astra
“I don’t think CF timing of talking to the Times last week about “ PIs bought on bad advice .. etc” was helpful at all and I tend to think he’s paving the way for the inevitable liquidation. ”
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Hi, LoM. Whilst I have some sympathy with your thinking, I am afraid I don’t concur with your conclusions.
I’m not going to wax lyrical about Chris (sometwatlikekoh will only latch on to it), however, I’m more inclined to think that with his back up against the wall, the last thing a battler wants to hear is tales of woe from those who have, by all common consensus, over stretched themselves and taken on an unwise amount of risk. The Times headline that “Sirius Minerals investors were misled” has a slightly different nuance when you actually read what he did say, which was “I read stories where people seem to have over-invested or probably not taken the right advice. I feel very bad for those situations, but we have been clear about the opportunities and also the risks.”
And whether people want to admit that or not, it is true. Of course people got caught up in the excitement - it remains an exciting proposition - and I did too, however, that is not the same as being “misled”. Among other risks and warnings, every single annual report contains the following warning concerning the whole premise of investment - namely, the commodity itself.
There is a risk that fertilizer prices, including potash and polyhalite, could fall to levels at which it would not be economically viable to develop the Project. Such conditions would materially and adversely affect production, earnings and the financial position and could result in the cessation of mining activities that become uneconomic or could result in the economics of the Project not being sufficient to enable the Group to raise the next stage of funding to take the Project to production, halt or delay the development of new areas to mine, and reduce funds available for proving reserves, resulting in the depletion of reserves. There is no assurance that, even as commercial quantities of polyhalite ore are produced, a profitable market will exist for it.”
We all know small print is tedious, however, we overlook it at our own risk. And if we do choose to do so, it’s a bit rich to expect someone battling to save the livelihoods of 1000’s of staff and keep his dream alive to be anything other than polite and say little more than about it than he already has.
Regards,
per ardua ad astra
Do you wish to be taken seriously?
per ardua ad astra
Don’t obfuscate. Do miracles exist? You’ve asserted not. And yet...
Perhaps you’d be good enough to square the circle.
per ardua ad astra
“Miracles don't happen I'm afraid”
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I’ve been repeatedly advised they do.
Bread? Fish? Enough to feed everyone?
Even 5000. Apparently.
per ardu ad astra
“Sirius could be coming back to market in 3-6 months with a debt offering that doesn't include exposure to the highest risk component (shaft), has the backing of a strategic investor and has a significantly lower overall gearing ratio due to strategic equity investment and lower overall capex bill”
—- -
Cynical brokers.
Anyone that pays a shred of attention to the propaganda house brokers spout needs their head testing.
You wanna know about the attendant risk with the shafts? I’d love to. Some of us might be forgiven for thinking we’d paid for ‘em already:
“Launch of Comprehensive Stage 1 Financing Solution”
“The Stage 1 Financing is currently expected to generate net proceeds of approximately US$1.1 billion, plus an additional US$0.1 billion in financing costs, for a total of approximately US$1.2 billion in Stage 1 Financing, and is intended to fund the direct costs of all site preparation, mine shaft excavations, tunnel caverns and a proportion of the indirect costs, project management and owner costs as well as provide certain contingency funds for the Project. The funds from the Stage 1 Financing are expected to be spent within approximately the first three years after commencement of construction.”
per ardua ad astra
“People pay for what they do, and still more, for what they have allowed themselves to become. And they pay for it simply: by the lives they lead.” - Edith Wharton
per ardua ad astra
With the limited technology I have to hand, it would seem that the start of the fall coincided with a trade of 3,260,299 at 3.96 which would suggest it was a sell. At first view, that trade - in isolation as it was - wouldn’t immediately appear to driven by some insider knowledge doing the rounds. The trend then continued, because, as someone pointed out earlier 3.x is a price that offers strong long term support and getting there is almost self fullfilling now (In my most fevered imagination I never thought we’d see it, but, here we are!).
If you’ve already reconciled your position and see yourself here to the endgame, whatever that may be, then today’s movement is little but noise. The noise created by people in the market doing what they do: buying and selling — and all driven by fear and greed. Speaking of which, there will be those who might well have done very well by taking a polar view to that espoused by 1000s of investors here. Good luck to them. How many of you didn’t think they were being clever? They took a chance and it paid off. Some of the rubbing your nose in it bulcacca that comes with it can be both juvenile, puerile and sometimes churlish, but hey, do you really care? Ask yourself if you care any more than you might about their short positions when the RNS drops announcing a clear route forward.
I’ve been lambasted in the past for appearing “haughty”, “sanctimonious”, or dismissive. More often than not because I’ve exhorted people to wisen up. The market is a bear pit - a cesspit, if you like, and it takes no prisoners. And you only make your losses more painful when you allow the understandable - if not diplomatic - celebrations of today’s winners to get under your skin.
per ardua ad astra
Oh, I absolutely agree with you, Dog Star. There’s far too many amateur investors lambasting Chris Fraser when, in seemingly significant numbers, many have failed to appreciate the market clearly believes that the lowest sales prices our TorPs will command still leaves a somewhat substantial level of risk to repayment.
It seems to me that alongside construction and tactical reviews, the best thing we can do is keep proving up the product. Results will collect supporters. However intractable people might be.
Regards,
per ardua ad astra
“Forget roads, why not mine real potash rather than that quarter strength stuff”
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Said the diesel mechanic to the hybrid engineer?
per ardua ad astra
A ‘group’ of pricks? No. I believe the collective noun would more accurately be levelled, a ‘stupefaction’ of pricks. Do you see?
per ardua ad astra
Great isn’t it, Scotty? What a charmer! His grandchildren will be so proud.
And five equally self-absorbed t*ssers agreed. Possibly all wondering why anyone else should see them as beneath contempt.
Perhaps the Daily Mail will deliver them a new opinion tomorrow? Cue a slew of judges as the ‘enemies of the people’ type frothing.
Hope you’re well.
per ardua ad astra
“Easy bagger” he says - whilst stopping me in my tracks as I’m arrested by his depth of analysis and the quality of his discernment.
“Opened a short yesterday” he says. Whilst seemingly identifying himself up as the short selling equivalent of the proverbial shoe-shine boy.
Hope your truth doesn’t hurt too much anyway. Sorry.
per ardua ad astra
Careful, eddie. You’ll have people suggesting that you’re channeling a cogent example of an apparently unrepresentative stereotype.
per ardua ad astra
If it has - and unlike many here I am reticent to ascribe cause and effect without real evidence - I would suggest that as a consequence of the Supreme Court’s unanimous, unqualified and damning verdict against a prime minister who is unwilling to be held to account, yet more Brexit uncertainty will prevail. It is only idealogues and idiots that continue to refuse to acknowledge Brexit and the attendanct harm plummeting foreign direct investment is having on companies such as ours.
Rest assured the only Brexit we will see on Halloween will be a spectre.
per ardua ad astra
“contributing to its demise”
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Good morning, Alan. Could you please elaborate on the process by which this might have occurred?
Many thanks,
per ardua ad astra
“Decided today that's it as the risk is nowhere near 50-50 in investors favour”
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When has it ever been 50-50 in anyone’s favour?
per ardua ad astra
“we are still in the top 15 shorted companies currently”
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An ostensibly compelling statistic, yet, when you allow for Highbridge’s 2.15% and Polygon’s 0.72% - both of whom I recall are only hedging their long conv. exposure from ST1 - then at 3.66%, that would put our traditional short positions somewhere on a par with the likes of Tate & Lyle, Capita or, even ASOS. That doesn’t seem too alarming, does it?
First impressions aren’t always the correct ones.
Regards,
per ardua ad astra
Suck it up, princess and straighten your tiara. I’m just thankful I only get to ‘enjoy’ your presence online. God forbid I’d ever find myself in a situation and having to count on you if the muck and bullets really did start to fly.
per ardua ad astra
“after a little while nobody will remember a few fools who lost fortunes”
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Hardly. Not with your abject handwringing and persistent griping burning into the memory.
per ardua ad astra