Twelve little words...21 Sep 2019 18:00
“I’m the custodian of this project and I have to deliver it.”
I’ve been an investor in Sirius Minerals for a decade. 10 long years of opportunity cost as time slips away like the sand in an egg timer...
But enough of that *******s. Reckon there’s been one tale of woe too many here of late. And whilst I have much sympathy for those who - for whatever reason - have decided that here is where their journey ends, the fact remains that this is by far the end of the road for Sirius Minerals.
Yes, shareholders are currently staring into the abyss. Some, quite literally (hello boys and girls!). However, to my mind if we are to conclude that we have reached the end of the road - then we must also admit that there is no other option open to us. And yet, clearly, that is not the case. From a strategic investor, to tailoring build finance to individual elements and the potential of IPA re-engagement, clearly other options remain. And all the while that is so, how can we possibly say it is over?
I first bought into Sirius believing we’d hit KCL in North Dakota. Unfortunately that never happened. “The potash stops at the border”, apparently. So, when Chris Fraser backed his York Potash truck into a reverse takeover of Sirius back in 2011 - despite initial scepticism - I was soon enthusiastic for the potential of polyhalite. Having previously studied for an RHS diploma (never sat the exams), Carl Sprengal’s ‘limiting factor’ theories (which went on to become known as ‘Liebig’s Law’) resonated with me, and this was reinforced by my own observations from years of allotmenteering.
So, after first meeting Chris and discovering his singleminded determination to make Sirius the “new potash powerhouse’, and with an appreciation of the science behind his reasoning, it wasn’t long before I determined to hitch my cart to his wagon; concluding that it would not be too long before he would drive it to fruition. I made that decision and was comfortable with it. Of course I anticipated that on the part of industry there’d be a a reluctance to change, or a reticence to try something new, however, I also believed that if the price point for K remained competitive, then across an array of scenarios, Poly4 would be able to facilitate an advantageous fertilisation regime that would see farmers enjoying bumper yields. That in itself would soon ensure a significant adoption the product. After all (on the whole) farmers are invariably a canny lot, and if a cheaper product can offer comparative results (or sometimes better!), it would not take long for them to climb aboard and start buying. Never did it occur to me that they wouldn’t get the chance.
Recent developments would suggest that our product is inferior - but is that entirely accurate curate? Only a fool or the unresearched would refuse to acknowledge that polyhalite only has ~ 30% of the K in KCL, however...