RE: Results date27 Aug 2023 17:33
Note by Liberum:-
Boohoo is targeting a return to double digit revenue growth and 6-8% EBITDA margin in the medium term, but this is well below historic run rate of 20-25% growth and 9-10% EBITDA margin as cost pressures, heightened competition and structural changes in the market (amongst others higher returns rate) have dented the group’s long-term prospects.
Boohoo has not gained much share of the UK online clothing market in the last three years and has clearly lost massive ground to Shein in the US and to online marketplaces in Rest of Europe.
Given the ground already lost to Shein and their plans to open further local distribution centres in the US, we think boohoo will struggle to reinvigorate growth back to historic levels even after the opening of their new DC, although we would expect a return to growth at a cost though.
On profitability though, a number of headwinds, in particular sea and air freight, are now turning into tailwinds.
More importantly, this will see a return of the group’s test and repeat model which is so crucial to driving stock turn.
Efforts to reduce overheads should support margins, but some of these will need to be reinvested into pricing, marketing, and improving the consumer delivery and returns offer to reinvigorate growth.
Our forecast of negative FCF till FY’25E, diminished prospects in its key markets and lack of visibility on the scalability of its newer brands, we believe there is better value elsewhere.