RE: Podcast13 Jun 2022 17:55
BBB the half year financial report is due the end of this month. It will only show the amount of Run-Of-Mine unwashed coal sold and shipped out by truck and not the sale of washed coal shipped out by train due to the delay in signing off the rail track repairs and Southern Rail's problem of supplying all the mining community (not just BENS CREEK) with trains this quarter. As such the revenue, that started 2 months earlier than planned by shipping out the ROM in January, has only covered OPEX costs. The HWM has only recently been brought into a double shift/double coal extraction workload so again, that will not be reflected in the half year report.
Unfortunately. once the report comes out, a few may try to use it to pull the price down. So best to be aware now that profits will not appear in it. However in 6 months time the end of year report will show HWM extracting on double shift some 80KT ROM, washed to give approx 40KT HiVolB per month plus around 5KT Hi VolA from the deep mine. It will, hopefully, also show commencement of 2nd HWM ramping up to double shift to produce a further 40KT washed coal. The independent resource report is due this week iirc to give a better realisation of how much coal is within the acreage and determine the Life-Of-Mine. We expect it to be higher than that of the Admission Documents and as mentioned already, it is probably factored in to current investor's considerations of sp value, which makes today's drop a top-up opportunity. I certainly did.
To be upfront, I may have appeared to be ramping this stock over the last few months as I thought we were already in profit, but as the trains have only just started running and the 2nd HWM not due to start until late July/August I can't see my prediction of £1.55 coming true by Christmas. My spreadsheet has moved it all 2 months forward to February 2023 (sorry mum), but that is double today's price!
Only my thoughts on the matter, not advise to buy or sell. Like everyone says, DYOR & GL. And apologies for yet another verbose paragraph.