Member Info for Penguins

Doesn't realise that JRM and co will probably be kicked out in 2 years time (or even earlier) but explorers certainly will take into consideration what could change with a change of government. These are long term investments with quite possibly short term authorisation.

As for all the drunken whining childish posts - who cares they'll be gone soon enough, not worth wasting time responding.

ocelot,

So much for understanding what you are posting.

You are continually repeating a skewed range as the numbers you quote are using only the mid / mean case and high case - the full range includes a low case - and those figures are gross, not just resources in UKOG acreage - also forgot to mention that even SS (never knowingly not overly positive) gave a probability of success of 60 to 70% - and before drilling Basur-3 put this in the July 2020 RNS about Basur - Resan:-

'......the Company believes the Licence's discovered and "missed pay" opportunities are as good as, if not better than its similar Loxley and Arreton appraisal projects in the UK'

How realistic is Loxley's potential. UKOG hasn't submitted their technical work to any external scrutiny and as you point out it doesn't reflect a 'true' value.

Just like HH before production ridiculous calculations of 'value' based on what appear to highly selective numbers quoted by UKOG from an unpublished study.

Ells,

No surprise those that were ridiculously ramping on twitter, including multiple accounts of Adrian's, his associates and some others banned from here don't like my posts and try to suggest, like you, that I'm a Green etc.

Hardly proof though is it.

Much more interesting when you go back far enough to comments about what I posted
about activities that have reached a conclusion (rather than the greenie BS) - essentially because nothing has been successful and all those that were ramping BB, HH and Basur have been, by definition, wrong.

Here's an open goal for you - explain in detail exactly what your figures are to justify 'The share is trading @ cash value' - you don't seem to want to justify this good news except with this waffle 'All the assets including the licences to unexplored regions are worthy of a poxy 16 million market cap'

To help - this is UKOGs valuation of their producing well at HH in the last annual report:-

'The Directors determined that the net present value of the HH-1 well was £3.63 million'

BTW - I think it's you that's been posting negative news about energy.....

But I see you're still peddling the activist nonsense - if you think that someone who has considered the projects poor since 2015 invests for the long term rather than gamble on the pumps followed by the inevitable dumps then you are deluded.

Rather than the sensible trader you claim to be you're now postng like a desperately ramping embittered locked in lth claiming anyone you don't agree with is an 'activist' of some description, spamming the board and posting any old rubbish - but little about UKOG, and certainly no detail. It says a lot about you though calling another poster a 'two faced twat'.

Though I can see why you need to have your posting history deleted every now and then, given your arrogance about your trading abilities - but you bought in because UKOG was at 'an all time low' above the placing price when others were saying it would drop below the placing price - even Adrian, who apparently you follow in his various guises on twitter, knew that.

It's not anybody on this board that has caused the SP to drop - though some have given good reasons why it might - UKOG has capably done that by failure after failure and raise after raise - what does that say about the posters that have continually posted about how great the projects are.

Ells,

'"maybe every little helps but don't think it would qualify as 'critical' energy infrastructure even if it was proved"

says who? someone on a forum. nah I prefer to listen to the government.'

when did the government mention Loxley....or is it your opinion you're listening to? If so what's the threshold for a 'critical infrastructure project' - I doubt it's an unproven gas field.

and you still haven't fleshed out your 'trading at cash value' - saying 'All the assets including the licences to unexplored regions are worthy of a poxy 16 million market cap' isn't exactly 'fleshing it out'.

and UKOG isn't producing electricity to the grid or gas - so while of general interest all these doom and gloom cut and pastes about how tough things may get this winter, in part because the government you want to listen to didn't fund gas storage amongst other things, are irrelevant to UKOG - an O&G E&P company that barely produces more oil than water.

Ibug

not sure that the total offshore gas production is only 2,400 tonnes a month.

Total UK production Q2 2022 was 9,609 million cumetres (government figure from energy trends). Weight per cubic metre is 0.83kilo so per month is 3,203,000,000 cubic metres x 0.83kg = 2,658,490,000kg = 2,658,490tonnes - almost all of which comes from offshore.

Ian,

you need to consider the scale of the problem and the solution needed. Only shale gas has the possibility of producing enough gas to make a difference onshore, even that not for years. Loxley, in the context of UK gas production is insignificant - even if it's successful to the extent claimed by UKOG - by no means guaranteed. SS claimed in appeal documents if successful (60 to 70% probability of success) production could be 4 to 5BCF / year = 0.375BCF / month (4.5BCF/year) = ca 10.6 million cubic metres per month. UK production Q2 2022 averaged 3,203 million cubic metres per month (as above). Loxley would equal approx 0.33% of current UK production,

Ells,

maybe every little helps but don't think it would qualify as 'critical' energy infrastructure even if it was proved

Earlofaim,

Don't believe everything that UKOG claim. Has a nasty habit of being a gross exaggeration - estimates millions of barrels recoverable from a well turns out to be zero when the well is drilled.

There has been little justification for their figures for Loxley, they certainly don't seem to have addressed the problems identified by Xodus in the 2018 CPR and since then avoided scrutiny while appearing to have an independent assessment of resources by getting Xodus to produce a 'volumetric study'.

By the way it isn't billions of barrels of oil equivalent. It's millions and the BCF recoverable at this stage appears to be high risk until a well is drilled and the map proved (or otherwise) by testing, pi in UKOG have had several lessons in risk vs reward - all risk, no reward..

The only independent bit is UKOG got Xodus to calculate volumes from UKOG's map - they didn't submit it to any scrutiny by Xodus who wouldn't calculate volumes in the 2018 CPR.

A bit like marking your own homework and getting the teacher to add up the ticks.

Maybe that's what happened for the Xodus sales brochure ( sorry that should read 'report') for Resan/Basur for AME.

and then quote in a letter to the local MP a skewed range.

Surprising that the pre-planned farm out hasn't been consummated yet given those numbers - I suppose it's all those suitors fighting for the opportunity - then maybe farminees don't just take what UKOG claim as 'gospel' - unlike certain pi.

Ocelot,

Just a reminder that you keep quoting the mean and high gross (includes volumes not in the UKOG licence) case for what was described by Xodus as technically recoverable gas ( not contingent resources) in Loxley - SS using mid / mean volume as the low value rather than the low case an example in the letter to Hunt of how UKOG bias the figures.

The 43BCF is the gross mid/ mean case - have a look at the numbers in the latest annual report - 2C 5.5boe = 31.9BCF net to UKOG with a mean of 5.9boe = 34.2BCF.

As for £4 a therm - is that today's price or the price, if Loxley is successful to the extent UKOG claim, when it's producing - and when is that?

At least do a minimum of research on figures you use - ocelot's claim of mid point is between the 2C and 3C case using a unjustified figure !say) for price - doen't look like the market quite believes as much as you do.

Ian12,

'You will never be happy in your life all the time you judge others'

Your whole post was judging others.

It was mainly Adrian trying to infer that SS not buying his September punishment for being CEO was 'good' news - but as for SS he didn't buy in September - looks like he 'forgot' - maybe he was holidaying in the Caribbean.

HH1AN2,

has anything UKOG have done ever gone right? According to certain posters it will always be the next one that will - forgetting that UKOG beng a micro-oiler can't secure high quality acreage - scratching around picking up acreage others have discarded and 'bigging' it up - they have to be very 'lucky' for it to go right - the risks are high, unfortunately UKOG only do positives.

Posters like yourself, 'regulars', have continually over the years criticised others for supposedly talking the share down - you do realise that it wasn't talking the share down it was identifying the more likely outcomes of the projects or were BB, HH-2z, Basur-3 successful, or HH-1 producing hundreds of barrels of oil.

I know - the next one will be, just be patient.

Maybe you should criticise those that have claimed everything will be OK, every project will be enormously successful (transformational, of national importance) when in reality they aren't - and they sold their shares at any opportunist pump and dump spike - not sure who that reminds me of - the fact the SP eventually drops after, and always has, proves the market isn't fooled even if pi are.

Ian12,

being held up? Loxley PP in place. HH planning permission in place, EA permission in place.

Ells,

UKOG has raised and spent over £80,000,000 - why should the government subsidise failure?

Ocelot,

Although UKOG said that the seismic acquisition came in under budget maybe they ran out of cash for the processing as although the July placing was said to be for 'The placing's proceeds will be sufficient to acquire and process the further planned, but previously unbudgeted, Phase 2 seismic'

the August one also included this as what it was for:- 'help deliver the Company's previously stated near term goals of completing the Phase 2 Turkey seismic programme'

Maybe the undefined 'general working capital purposes' are eating up more cash than expected and not enough left for processing?

As for funds there's currently further uncertainty as to Loxley expenditure - whether the farm out will happen and if it does how much the carry will be - and of course the conversion of HH-2z to an injector which unexpectedly has not happened yet as it is expected to reduce OPEX and maybe even improve production.

Sandalwood,

you may be surprised to know everybody on the board (except ocelot) knows exactly what you do - and it isn't hold on to shares when the SP spikes despite your cheerleading of the projects before and during them - sort of demonstrates you don't believe in them either.

Sandalwood,

You miss the point that buying under the DDSPP is not a signal of any kind - not buying could be interpreted as such which some are now proving.

As for his delaying buying this also from the first purchase by SS under the DDSPP RNS:- 'Mr Sanderson entered the DDSPP in December 2021 and has committed to purchase approximately 7% of his net monthly salary in Ordinary Shares each month for 12 months with the final purchase expected to occur on 18th November 2022'

So the company expected the purchase date to be similar to the first - and Cynderlad that RNS would suggest the company expects mid November to be the last purchase).

meanwhile I missed this before:-

'Full ask is being paid on very little volume BTW'

I found 3 out of 40 trades - buys are at about 0.0767p vs full ask of 0.078p.

But sells seem to be near the 0.076p quoted (0.0761p).

'I think we are looking at a trend reversal upwards. This should bounce hard imo.'

Hardly, did you just buy in - like this bloke on twitter:-

Adrian@davethedrill1
Sep 30
#ukog bought some. It's oversold and far to cheap.

Seems you have similar views as well about 'bounce hard':-

'Adrian@davethedrill1
Oct 2
#ukog is oversold and at an all time low. News will see this bounce hard. It always does'

and coincidentally this morning worrying about SS:-

'#UKOG No director dealing RNS for last month. Sounds like SS is privy to some inside information and is delaying his monthly share buy until after the price sensitive information'

As for ' Clearly you are not a fan' seems you have a similar opinion (though mine was a joke as any resignation would have to be conveyed to the market mmediately):-

'If its because SS has handed in his letter of resignation is see the share price trebling immediately that news is released'

Adrian isn't a fan of SS either.............

Sandalwood,

'It would only be insider dealing if SS has stopped his monthly share purchase if he has some negative inside information'

Wrong.

He would be acting on insider knowledge either way - whether he gained or lost out of it.

So according to you not buying because of 'good' news isn't acting on insider knowledge when it is, but not buying because of 'bad' news isn't.

The whole purpose of the rules on DDSPP is to avoid purchases being interpreted as being a good or bad signal.

Otherwise according to you any time SS buys under the DDSPP we must assume there's no good news imminent.

There is a very good reason the CEO has not bought his monthly amount of shares and we will no doubt find out soon why not imo.

Probably forgot - such a paltry sum - if it's deliberate because of a positive announcement (or negative) coming along then the accusation that he's acting on insider information could definitely be levelled against him.

If he'd bought when he should have done in the middle of the month (first purchase 16th of the month) any announcement made now would be a long time after.

Just read the RNS instead of desperate ramping:-

'Upon entering into the DDSPP in an open period the director will be committed to make the monthly purchase of shares under the programme in what otherwise may be a close period. Entering into the DDSPP will not preclude the director from buying additional shares in the Company during open periods. The director will be able to enter a new DDSPP upon completion of an existing programme.

The market will be notified of the share purchases under the DDSPP on the next trading day via a PDMR: Director's dealing notification. Further details will be issued in due course.'

Stockraiser,

The director share purchase scheme is set up so that share purchases can be made by directors regardless of what is happening eg insider knowledge.

Why SS hasn't purchased, or not RNS'd the purchase, is odd but disregards an agreement he has entered into with UKOG to buy shares every month for a year.

Perhaps he's handed in his notice - the only good reason I could think of.

Ells,

any chance of fleshing out:- 'Still trading around cash value'. What cash value of £16mm would that be?

also 'risk / reward favourable' - not sure that the risks have been fully (or even slightly) explained by UKOG. Bland statements about Basur / Resan being 'better' than Loxley and Arreton (before the failure of Basur-3). Prioritising Basur-4 over Loxley, which looks like it will only progress if the pre-planned farm out is taken up, and no any activity at HH except maintenance - exactly what preparation for HH-2z is ongoing as mentioned in August - does not suggest anything is low risk.

Of course a P&D on news of the Loxley farm out, or confirmation of the lead in Basur, or plans to proceed with the water injection could supply a exit - but as for the results...........who's going to hold through the spikes, though I expect many will predict ridiculous SPs to encourage buying.

There's still agood chance of a further placing later this year if HH-2z conversion goes ahead or the pre-planned farm out doesn't provide a full carry of the Loxley drill, or they've spent too much of the recent raise on the other projects / 'working capital' so need more to drill Basur-4.

Ian,

Which all time lows have you bought at? It hasn't exactly been a rare event recently.

Anyway hasn't the SP risen so it's no longer at an all time low....today, just nearly. He should have bought when he's supposed to have done last week, ot maybe he forgot to issue an RNS?

At least he'll be averaging down - having spent £9000 up to now his average is about 0.11p with a current sale value of about £6154. Only nearly £3000 down.

At least he's now getting the full UKOG experience and not just a nice juicy paycheck every month.