Member Info for Penguins

Vernonya,

2050 is erm 28 years away? Nothing apart from paying for it and sensible use will avert anything this winter.

It's climate change - some pla ss hotter, some colder.....

The article seems confused as to whether it's about fracking or not with the picture described as the fracking site - yet they quote GL's comment “We wouldn’t even dream of trying to frack south of the Watford gap,” Lucan told an investors conference earlier this month. “And I think anybody who does try has a screw loose.”

As I've said previously it just seems the protestors want to attach shale and fracking to any exploration or production in the Weald to stir up the residents - eg the 'Shale Trail' walk which Adrian has said is happening today'

As for the 4'4 billion of barrels recoverable this is OIP and there are comments in the body of the report suggesting that the oil in the shales may not be producible eg on P61:-

'However, in the study area the strong relationship between TOC and S1 (Figure 39) and the low ratio of ‘free oil’ relative to TOC (the ‘oil saturation index’, see above) could also point to the fact that most of the ‘free oil’ is bound within the kerogen and is not likely to be producible (see further discussion in Appendix A).'

and this from the conclusion:-

'This range of figures is an estimate of total oil in-place, because a reliable estimate of recoverable shale oil cannot be made at this time (see Section 2.3). Only with shale oil exploration drilling and testing over an extended period, and optimization of the extraction process, will it be possible to determine whether this identified shale oil prospectivity can be exploited commercially.'

Note that the report was specific to the shales - not production from the micrites which was acknowledged as a possibility in 2014 in the summary P12:-

'Hybrid conventional/shale oil plays with low-porosity and impermeable rocks juxtaposed against mature shales may also represent a favourable exploration target in the Weald Basin; these have also proven successful in the North America (e.g. the Bakken oil system). The oil resources potentially present in these plays are not included in the in-place oil volumes in this report.'

Still posting your fantasies about UKOG - when has UKOG ever rushed, they still have multiple conditions to address in the PP, and it's 2 months since the 'pre-plannd' farm out of Loxley was announced with no news. But they've prioritised Basur, where they only had leads having destroyed the accumulation they were appraising with the Basur-3 well, over Loxley - what does that say about how great Loxley is?

and still posting your fantasies about other posters.

Everyone knows you're a trader who will sell the moment the SP goes up - nothing wrong with that, but coming on here swamping the board with your fantasies about how great UKOG is, and complete fabrications about other posters every time you buy in is what gets you banned again and again.

It shows who and what you are.

Bornagain,

Nutech gave some warnings, but seem to have assumed that the Kimmeridge was similar to American shales - and the reports published were summaries - in the second more thorough summary there was a caveat pointing out that their methodology does not differentiate between light movable oil and other hydrocarbon phases present (the mocked BGS report at least tried).

UKOG only released a summary of the Schlumberger Horse Hill Kimmeridge report - that had 2 pages of caveats.

The published Xodus reports for HH and the CPR were fairly conservative, but UKOG often RNS what now appear to be maximum or most optimistic cases from reports they haven't released - eg the claims like the 1080bopd from the horizontal - every now and then I point out that UKOG have been very selective in what they claim in RNS - and those claims are then repeated ad nauseum on this board and then extrapolated - until they are ultimately proved wrong.

It may be that the full reports were not quite as positive as UKOG's excerpts - bear this in mind when UKOG quotes a report rather than release the whole thing.

Ocelot,

I suspect that the reverand doesn't know more than Angus or UKOG - but it's a good way of stirring up locals to claim that UKOG or Angus will be fracking the Kimmeridge.

This of course is completely wrong 'two active local sites of shale oil extraction' - neither site is producing even from the micrite layers in the Kimmeridge.

Usual ridiculous posting about 'green activists' or government permissions as if they will make any difference to the geology that dictates ultimately how successful any venture will be.

The reality is that an explorer like UKOG with limited means ends up with low prospectivity acreage and scratches around RNSing the most positive outcome possible from the data they have. Investing long term on the basis of RNS is a high risk strategy that has certainly failed in the case of UKOG. Claiming it's bad luck, as some do, fails to acknowledge the reality of the licences and the selectivity of information the company chooses to tell its owners (pi). Sure fire wells end up suspended for years (BB-1z, HH-2z, Basur-3) and activities that are claimed to improve performance (HH-1 reperforation, new 'bigger' pump) don't, or seem delayed indefinitely (water injection and new wells at HH) but none of these because of 'activists'.

Even the delay to Loxley is because of councillors and then legal challenges taking an inordinately long time because of the system not site invasions or xr.

Now that's delayed because UKOG choose to fund Turkey (where there are only leads awaiting seismic processing and interpretation) over Loxley, an apparently low risk gas appraisal that now needs someone else to fund it (or at least some part).

Rampers eh,

With the SP dropping they resort to insults and ridiculous claims - just on this thead:-

'Ian they report every message'
'There clan is full of bull**** ian. Same old green freaks that wan’t like in a cave'
'Green freaks or one flew over the cuckoo’s nest'
'Great to see that you get enormous pleasure out of Ukog failing, obviously a Green Activist!'

Desperate........anyone they don't agree with is a 'green' yet they've been consistently wrong about the SP.

..... and Ells, btw your posts are so ridiculous and quite often unintelligible I don't report them because there's gems like this 20 days ago (SP was 0.12p):-

'08 Sep 2022 09:17
If the stock was going lower than 52 week lows then fair enough, but we have an energy crisis “evolving” and you are still bearish. What on earth!?'

and you wonder why posters are 'bearish' - 12 September placing followed by a sequence of ever lower lows.

Let's hope there is some good news coming as the slide just makes your posting more desperate but UKOG has an uncanny knack of making things worse.

What's needed is a positive update (if not a definite farminee) on the Loxley farm out as Basur processing then interpretation might take a while - then quite possibly a placing to fund Loxley (if they don'y get a full carry) and HH-2z conversion, although that's been possible since early May with preparations still ongoing in August. According to some injection an easy cheap certainty to improve production and save cash on water disposal - does make you wonder why they haven't prioritised that?

IGas - that's twice today - just bought in??

Ocelot,

Didn't you claim that the pre-planned farmout could have been touted round possible farminees during the time UKOG were waiting for the appeal decision as they expected it to go their way - so it would be a quick process. Now 2 months passed sin e 20/7, no activity on the planning conditions and no further mention of progressing the farm out.

There's also no way a farminee would also carry development costs - just the cost of the Loxley well or part of it, or even just their share depending on the deal.

Ocelot,

Based on what GL said can we assume if ANGS don't farm in to Loxley isn't an attractive asset, or can we just assume he was talking BS?

Ells

'Could be propaganda used by Russia to start war.'

You linked to tweeter who is pro Russia without any comment (apart from wow) until now.

'Could be propaganda - it is, You are part of the problem.

HH1AN2

In the July RNS the Q4 raise would be for 'its share of the Basur appraisal well and for working capital purposes to help fund its other significant projects'

The September raise was 'to help deliver the Company's previously stated near term goals of completing the Phase 2 Turkey seismic programme and the subsequent drilling of a new appraisal well in the Basur oil discovery, anticipated to be able to add near-term oil production to the Company in H1 2023'

So even if the seismic acquisition was completed under budget it looks like the September raise would be for 'completing' it - processing presumably - and the well, nothing about funding UKOG's 'other significant projects'.

So if Loxley isn't fully covered by the pre-planned farmout or UKOG get round to converting HH-2z then there will be more fund raising needed - don't depend on any funds heading to the UK from Turkey - if the Basur well is successful any cash will be retained to drill further wells.

ells,

Energy security in the UK won't be significantly helped by 'Loxley's pre-planned farm-out programme or by Basur-Resan' even if Loxley is successful. As for funding from the shale wealth fund (your national infrastructure investment?) when's that RNS, 2030? and it won't be on an infrastructure list until it's proved to exist.

'Any developing news and this will soar. BUST THROUGH .15 AND IT'S CLEAR FOR A BULL CYCLE.'

Last 'developing news' was fracking, it rose and then dropped back to new lows with UKOG raising on the P&D - heard it all before, and seen plenty of 'charts' where the projected line rises endlessly - can't imagine why the previous ones we've been shown over the years haven't worked, the SP seemingly not aware it's meant to go up and stay up.

maqsood,

you have no idea what everyonehas bought and sold for - but we do know that ells bought at about 0.09p - and seems not ot have sold on the last mini P&D.

But the placees couldn't help getting it partly right because they forward sold on the mini P&D prior to the placing.

What newspapers got what wrong?

I can't speak for anyone else but I've never told anyone to sell or buy - I've made it quite clear that the SP does not necessarily reflect the likely outcome of the projects when it rises on supposed good news - but what I have done is flagged that the price during P&Ds usually (and always has eventually) drops back down - and explain what my opinions are based on.

What's your excuse - ramping to sell - not because the company has a great future but because you've bought at an all time low and just hope for a rise because it's a well known fact all time lows are followed by a rise - except when they aren't.

As for this BS from ocelot:-

'It's true, it's the presence of so many derampers on the board which helps to suggest the rebound potential of the stock.'

I'm busy at the moment to find a quote but ocelot regularly says it - have a look at the SP chart for confirmation (that it isn't true)

while I'm mentioning ocelot:-

As Ibug pointed out earlier - this from ocelot:-

'RE: Spin this! 31 Aug 2022 09:14
After yesterday's sharp decline, the price of natural gas is currently recovering.
The front month has shifted to October which is now 571.74p, up 9%'

vs this just now on ICE:-

CONTRACT OCT22 LAST 262.200 TIME(GMT) 9/27/2022 11:41 AM

Bear this in mind when ocelot rejoices at future contract prices (as on ANGS today - 421.18p is the current price of the November contract).

Ells, and it seems Maqsood,

your 'macro' economics are irrelevant to UKOG - especially if it's about gas. UKOG has no sales gas production and might never have any. Even if Loxley is farmed out soon it will be a while before it csn be drilled - then tested if successful - then drilled again to confirm volumes etc - then development plans need to be made (if it's economic) - then approved more wells drilled and infastructure built including connection to the grid.

I suspect demand is dropping as those on so called capped rates, and even those with fixed prices reduce their consumption as it's a national emergency - whilst the government hasn't protected it's citizens by ensuring sufficient gas storage and supply we can all help with demand.

Meanwhile in the fantasy world of the Daily Mail:-

'.........shale could become one of Britain's biggest sources of energy in just 15 years'

sounds like a UKOG RNS........'could', 'just 15 years' but what has that to do with your 'nord stream shutdown is good news for domestic suppliers…' - it certainly doesn't seem to be good news for consumers. Maybe you mean good news for producers, domestic or otherwise?

and there's ocelot banging on about Balcombe which was tested by Angus 5 years after being drilled by Cuadrilla (not when first drilled). The chilling thing was that it was thought that '... the Company’s testing team believes a small high-pressure water zone was intersected in the horizontal section of the well which will require isolation in the future' - echoes of HH-2z - though in the Kimmeridge in Balcombe, not the Portland.

Yep, apologies,

I forget about Avington (not producing) and Horndean - 10% of about 100bopd & 30bwpd (June 2022) - probably why.

and........

Maqsood,

Turkey is UKOG's priority - having drilled the first well there in the wrong place.

Loxley is 100% but they are trying to farm it out - but UKOG has no licences with IGas.

Horsehill - waiting since early May for anything but 'preparations' for HH-2z conversion mentioned in August.

What fracking assets 'might' come into the portfolio?

Looks like a rollover to me, with 10 seconds between them and 0.0001p on the price.

When buys are going through at 0.081 - is someone buying at 0.0824/5 when it's obvious there's big sellers at 0.08p (eg 2 trades totalling nearly 29mm shares at 0.08p) - though quite cheap on the spread - sell for 0.0824p buy for 0.825p (£30 + deal costs)

Whilst if both were buys it isn't a huge amount, except relative to today's volume (as ocelot has pointed out), the SP hasn't shifted up significantly.

The list in the government's 'Growth Plan 2022' for O&G is this:-

Oil and Gas
124. Murlach Oil Field Development - NS - 25.9mmbbls & 25mmcf
125. Cambo Phase 1 Field Development - WOS - 175mmbbls
126. Talbot Field Development- NS - 18.1 mmboe (O&G)
127. Affleck Redevelopment - NS
128. Victory Field Development - WOS - 179BCF

These are 'infrastructure projects which will be accelerated as fast as possible, aiming to get the vast majority starting construction by the end of 2023'

But 'Presence on this list does not guarantee, where applicable, funding, planning consent or
approval for other regulatory or permitting processes'

However 'the list is non-exhaustive of all projects which may benefit from acceleration'

All offshore and except Cambo and Victory are extensions or redevelopment of existing fields or infrastructure. Nothing onshore and no guarantees of avoidance of regulations, planning etc. anyway.

For UKOG specifically for Loxley not even a drop in a bucket as there is no proof that Loxley exists or is as large as they claim until they drill a successful well in their licence - and recent examples elsewhere suggest that it takes years to monetise post discovery, and valuations by pi are wildly optimistic even with CPR support to resources / reserves.

Not sure, like so many news items linked here, that it has any relevance for UKOG at all.

James,

Perhaps you need to think about what you post:-

'110 posts in last 30 days and 93 all negative on ukog'

'guys get in at an historical all time low even below the last placing'

So I've been 'negative' about UKOG leading up to a 'historical all time low'

Meanwhile in the last month ells has 298 posts on this board all positive or complaining about 'negative' posters.

who to believe eh?

The spike on the supposed fracking in the Weald has already happened - and as predicted the SP then dropped - and that wasn't because just a few posters on this board mention it won't work / won't happen.

HH1AN2,

don't you realise that posts pointing out how poor the licences / leads /prospects are is not being negative - it's being realistic. If say HH was producing 3,500bopd, or HH-1 362 bopd, or HH-1 had been dual completed, or HH-2z had been successful, or BB had been successful, or Basur-3 had been successful - then saying they would fail or not produce huge amounts of oil would have been negative to the outcome'

What does that make those that have been unremittingly positive and claiming anyone that disagrees is a 'greenness' [sic].

Just looking at your profile it's difficult to find any of the companies you've ramped recently that have increased in value.

...and someone with 5 posts in half an hour is hardly taking the moral high ground on posting quantities.

As for working as a group - ells appears just as you start making accusations about other posters - which ells specialises in - as well as buying at an all time low - that rapidly wasn't, maybe you can swap notes.

HH1AN2,

Economics will dictate whether any oil 'there' will come out. Even when oil was over $100 UKOG didn't progress any activities on the Kimmeridge despite all the claims made during the ewt, and the selected released flow rates.

The Kimmeridge at HH is too shallow, not overpressured and already fractured, the last two being reasons why it isn't a good candidate for fracking - and both 'issues' would have been known to companies involved in Weald oil exploration and a reason they confidently said they would not frack.

James,

I can understand that you'd prefer posters not explaining the reasons for an opinion - if you think they're negative opinions put forward why the opinion is wrong not accusations based on your bias based on just buying in at an 'all time low' and hoping for the best.

Ells,

'Penguins you have been exposed in your clan… it’s time to hang up your boots and move on. Your negative spew for years and years has been exposed.'

Yep, exposed for what I am, a realist it certainly hasn't been 'negative spew for years'.....as looking at the share chart for UKOG perhaps those that have been so unrelenting positive can't have been right at all?

Maybe you could point out a 'negative spew' post for a project that reached a successful conclusion to support your claim?

Ocelot,

Soooooo......if I've got this right......

If barchart say anything over 50% Buy it's a buy signal, and when they say 100% Sell it's a buy signal.

A bit like it's good news when UKOG don't RNS a placing, and it's good news when they do - as it's 'out of the way'.

Or has this board finally turned into the mad hatter 's tea party where posters who have been continually right are wrong, and those that have been continually wrong are right? and those that understand and research extensively what UKOG are involved in and point out the issues are wrong and those that know little about what UKOG are involved in and just repeat the 'positives' are right.

Mad hatters tea party alright - who's the mad hatter and the mad March hare though?