Member Info for Penguins

Johno

you've not been here long have you - every placing has been accompanied by selling regardless of any forward selling ban. There's obviously strategies for doing so - and does UKOG care?

During the CLN cash raises obvious last sales were often made before the date the shares were meant to be admitted to trading following days of large sales.

The agreement is included in the RNS - but whether or not there's any restrictions it's pretty clear what's going on - I'm not going to plough through it.

Ells,

'August 16th 0.85 print gives me confidence. City boys this is your signal.'

you mean the mistake, immediately rectified 32seconds later and then entered 3 seconds later correctly @ 0.085p:-

10 0.85 500000 O 0.085 0.087 08:13:46 500,000
11 0.85 500000 O 0.085 0.087 08:14:18 500,000
12 0.085 500000 O 0.085 0.087 08:14:21 500,000

How many times have posters put 0.85 when they mean to put 0.085.

If you are basing your trading strategy on a mistake it explains a lot of your posts.

Johno,

have you missed the RNS about UKOG raising £3mm by issuing 3,428,571,425 shares sothat's at least 205,714,285 gone - 6% of the placing - a long way to go yet and the buyers tend to drop off when they realise that the supply is (virtually) endless. Shares in issue nearly 3 for everyone in the world (just over 21 billion).

'does make you wonder who has bought all those shares? PI's ?'

Yep pi - if a major investor wanted any shares they would have participated in the placing, not paid over the odds.

galider,

you've filtered on D+1 - Saturday's is only listed as D+2 presumably because nobody enters the figures on Sunday.

The Saturday figure is listed by multiple posters including me

Hamsters,

the three figures are calorific value which can vary (not sure of the what CV - but similar to the ones in my gas bill) and Energy in kWh (kWh the biggest number). The calculation from energy to kWh possibly requires a variable not listed as converting from one to the other is not precise.

D+1 0.0537mscm (ca 1.9mmscf) is Sunday's total (11/09) and D+2 0.1229mscm (ca 4.134mmscf) Saturday's (10/09)

Probably shut down for half a day for tweaking.

Earlier someone posed that the hedge for September had been reduced - the only mention of the hedge 'rolling forward' I've seen is 'a portion' of Q3 hedge - with no specifics in July. Whilst at the end of July it was likely they rolled forward July and August's hedge 'reducing' September's seems unlikely. Seemingly there was no change on 25 August (RNS) - and this excerpt suggests up to end August hedge was rolled forward:-

'The Company will make nominations..........which we strongly believe will occur before the end of August thereby meeting the current deadline under the Company’s revised hedge arrangements as notified on 29 July 2022.'

If production returns to over 4mmscf/d and just rises to the minimum steady state of 5.5mmscf/d quoted by Angus then the September hedge will easily be met and exceeded.

As the next dedision point was after the seismic and it's uncertain whether they've even started acquiring it that's another of you assumptions (and stockraiser's) that looks unlikely.

'Sooooo... it looks like they've reached that decision early - expect next RNS to be extremely positive ;-)'

The worry is they've decided that the leads aren't even worth acquiring more seismic over, though they haven't said that (yet?) so to get at least an oil show they're going to drill to be adjacent to Basur-1 from the Basur-3 well site - a well they say would be difficult to drill.

According to UKOG's mapping this would only prove a tiny reserve - and could rapidly produce water (Basur-1 after 500bbls of oil). Before Basur-3 UKOG claimed Basur/ Resan was a single entity but now say the Resan area is problematic because of fractures acting as conduits for water.

In reality I suspect it's opportunistic - see rise in SP - place - repeat. How often does a UKOG plan or claim make it to the next RNS

Assuming everyone has huge losses is as dumb as saying the company has a strong balance sheet.

That would be true if every day the company wasn't spending a lot more than it earns.

Strong isn't limping along until it can drill a well it doesn't even know where it will be placed because the huge Basur Resan 'proved' OIP has disappeared somehow and must have taken most of the 2C resources with it. Though don't expect that to be updated for a while - whilst UKOG can't RNS fast enough every minor improvement in resources.

Now they need new seismic to ind a target - which was originally mentioned in June.

Every previous well since HH-1 they've raised again either while drilling, testing or between the two - seemingly, looking at the dates, when they realise things aren't going to plan.

Does raising on the fracking P&D suggest they don't see any good news on the horizon - surely they could have waited until the seismic was shot - or has that cash gone already?

Luckily there's so many traders they catch out with thier placings there's always a ready bunch of posters and tweeters desperate to recover their losses prepared to post and tweet any old c**p to sell their shares to the next trader hoping.

How's it going Ells?

Desperate to save your 'investment' at 0.09p last time?

Just because you got mugged, presumably with the same BS you're now posting, while others were warning the SP would drop below the placing price - and it did.

As long as the idiots keep buying at 'bargain' prices after placings (and then forget to sell on a pump) UKOG will keep growing its unhappy band of lth - trapped by ever more dilution.

Even if pi aren't going to profit from fracking looks like the company's staff and board have.

Seems your charting didn't predict the cash raise RNS - and now with no justification you're claiming this latest placing will last UKOG until the end of 2023 and commercial oil production in Q1 2023.

In Turkey they haven't even acquired the phase 2 seismic to find out if any of the leads survive scrutiny (no doubt one will - but will they show a map and the seismic) and they've raised money to drill one of them. Unfortunately UKOG seem to run out of cash raised to drill during drilling and / or testing (when the SP has risen a bit) but before they mention it's a failure (cf Basur-3 - £5mm, HH-2z - £2mm, BB - £10mm).

Nothing about the pre-planned farmout of Loxley - apparently the second largest onshore gas field that is so good they won't drill it unless someone else pays. UKOG will need to raise if they can't find a farminee to pay 100%.

HH - no further news on the preparation for the conversion of HH-2z, nor the new seismic that was proposed by twitter but then never mentioned again.

But let's spend more cash in Turkey.

Instead of posting meaningless messages 'They don't like it up em captain' why not post your evidence for posting:-

'Last message a lot of old stories mostly negativity from greens, that's all changed now , so c'mon Frack frack frack , opps talking penguin'

Seems a lot of evidence why the Kimmeridge won't be fracked - what's yours.

Any statement from UKOG saying they are going to frack?

Any statement from the government changing the permitted depth of fracking?

Maybe a revised 'Weald Shale Report'?

Maybe there's a well in commercial production from the naturally fractured micrites - even the already present fractures don't deliver?

Thought not.

Ocelot,

'The government ..... has already made it clear it will be taking a different approach to the energy industry'

great - what exactly of the government's different approach is going to change that will change what UKOG do this year as the full plans aren't published. It's certainly unlikely to affect what's in your next sentence:-

'We await news, in particular, of Loxley's pre-planned farm-out programme and of Basur-Resan'

Basur is in Turkey and where UKOG want to spend any cash raised, and the Loxley well already has permission, as does Horse Hill for multiple wells. Perhaps there will be an RNS about how the 'pre-planned farm out' - or 'farm out' as most would have called it - is going.

The government seemed to be proposing a gas purchasing authority - perhaps permission to frack should be linked to a compulsion to sell the gas to this authority with a 'fair' profits clause.

oops,

...........until 13:01pm yesterday.

Just did. Yesterday's wasn't listed - but Friday's wasn't listed until 3:01pm yesterday.

It's a bit clunky so I seem to have to 'clear selection' and re-enter Saltfleetby into the search box each time.

worked for me

GL

Ocelot,

Do you have some environmental activist acquaintances that express a desire to import oil or gas. As far as I'm concerned (I can't speak for anyone else here) I agree the UK should exploit its O&G resources - but also expand renewables which it turns out, while they're working, are cheaper to generate electricity than gas currently - though their production can also be an environmental disaster.

I've regularly posted the Bowland Shale gas fracking tests should have continued (because the jury is out if it will work) - but conversely that all the technical information about the Kimmeridge is much more negative - and as for non-fracking results, as far as UKOG or anyone else has published them, or acted on them, they seem to be poor.

Nowhere do I suggest UKOG shouldn't drill the wells they have permission for - just that in my opinion the chance of success is not as great as UKOG and hence posters here claim (hence UKOG reluctance to do, rather than 'plan' or 'progress') - and I explain why. As activities progress I try to understand how they are really progressing vs the ever positive RNS, or lack of.

We await further news about Turkey, Loxley and HH and no doubt UKOG will predict fantastic outcomes as they have previously - whilst many posters may want to accept and repeat everything UKOG RNS at face value I'll be researching their claims (often erroneously thought to be 'facts') - and reporting my findings here whether ocelot, Ells, Adrian etc like it, or not.

Ells,

Instead of worrying about lines on charts - that only work if the chartist is believed (briefly) or they guess correctly when an RNS turns up - try and find out about the projects - and that doesn't mean only read UKOG RNS.

Just parroting UKOG claims certainly hasn't helped ocelot's ability to predict the future.

Following Basur-3 there's no prospect currently at Basur though hopefully the proposed phase 2 seismic survey will confirm its existance (or not) - the Basur-3 well and then the phase 1 seismic effectively destroyed the original Basur closure.

Horse Hill - it seems the testing destroyed the prospectivity of Kimmeridge, and drilling HH-2z seems to have unnerved UKOG with regard to further work on the Portland.

What is inexplicable (unless you are wary of UKOG's interpretations) is that UKOG seem to favour Turkey, that has no firm prospeect, over Loxley or Horse Hill. The claim is it would be quicker to monetise in Turkey, if successful, though in E Sadak - an adjacent lookalike field - wells have similar productivity to Horse Hill and possibly higher decline with only 50% to UKOG. Whilst lead times to revenues at Loxley will be long as it's gas, the same doesn't apply to HH where they have planning for multiple wells and could quickly ramp up production.

Ooooo,

more 'no sh*t Sherlock' insights into investing - from investing by a dummy 101 - who 2 weeks ago didn't understand 'ceiling' and 'floor':-

'Penguins he keeps us informed on a global scale… it does have an impact… a floor around .09 is being formed… keep to your negative mindset'

it was a ceiling - have a look 31 August - highest trades 0.09p.

As for UJO - UKOG don't do loans - they prefer to dilute but perhaps if you did a bit of research you might find a significant difference between Europa and UKOG - UKOG isn't a partner in Wressle but UJO is.

'In Johnson's government, Rees-Mogg was responsible for Brexit opportunities and reducing the weight of EU regulations.
Let's see what he can now do with the UK's home-grown breaks on growth in the energy industry.'

Based on past performance quite likely a complete failure - asking Sun readers for suggestions for EU (actually UK) regulations to get rid of a notable low - and in his 'efficiency' role equally a complete waste of space.

as for 'that he didn't let his negativity get in the way of a money-making opportunity' should actually be 'positivity' (see below) and didn't sell at what ended up as the top.

Ells

Do you really think you're the first and only trader who's spotted that after a pump or a placing there's a dump and the price drops - then eventually they'll be another P&D. You may have rushed in early to buy at 0.094p when many were saying it would drop below the placing price, and it did.

I suspect many others are sitting even prettier having paid 10% less...........or perhaps sold out at around 0.12p (40% gain) - and even bought back in for 10% less if expecting another P&D coming along soon.

But do you think anybody believes your claim to be a lth? that is unless you're caught out by a bad RNS dropping the SP.

Guess who posted this on VAL (big clue):-

'“Go away” and let the pumpers trap people @ 30p 40p 50p 60p. That’s a loss of 40/80% !! Must feel great to lose money for the sake of keeping someone you don’t know happy. Take generous profits... the AIM will take them away as quick as you say “Oh well, I’ll just hold now”. Then **** hits the fan and you become the negative bagholder for life.'

Ocelot illustrates an interesting conundrum that those who have consistently predicted UKOG's shortcomings, and, explained why, are supposedly 'environmental activists'.

Doesn't say much for ocelots (or many other rampers) understanding or knowledge either of what he has invested in - or other posters.

You might notice that I've been posting relatively positively on ANGS where good progress is being made - though not perhaps as positively as some.

Ells,

Unless ocelot has 'traded' despite claiming to be a lth for many years I expect, and judging by ever more desperate posting, he's also a 'big loser' - possibly the biggest loser of all and prepared to try and persuade others to join in from 2p down:-

'ocelot
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 19,617
Price: 2.39
No Opinion
bankable cash flow 10 Sep 2018 18:04
today's news means UKOG is heading towards significant bankable cash flow, which, in turn, should open up new sources of finance for the company.'

Not to mention pushing zak mir's 0.9p by end May last year during a P&D.

Certainly lost any credibility supporting Adrian's frequent visits to this board.

So far according to NG numbers (that tie in with what Angus RNS'd) SFB has produced about 18mmscf 2nd to 8th September. We await 9th September production figures. Assuming they produced 0.5mmscf/d (and rising) from 30 August to 2 September then that totals 20.5mmscf.

Angus haven't indicated what hedge remained for Q3 - but if it was just September's that would be 103.47mmscf. On that basis there are 83mmscf remaining to deliver in 21 days so Angus would need to start delivering 4mmscf a day soon and build towards October's hedged volume of 5.19mmscf/d.

Angus are confident they can reach the current 'capacity' of 4.6mmscf/d and soon reach a minimum steady state of 5.5mmsf/d.

More assumptions - the hedge going forward in September is 4mmscf/d. Over the next ten days they produce 40mmscfd and are at that point producing a steady 5.5mmscf/d then that would give sales gas of 15mmscf or 150,000therms (@100cuft per therm).

For Q4 assuming regularly exceeding the hedge (depending on month 5.19 to 5.37mmscf/d) by 0.5mmscf/d that would give approximately 45mmscf (450,000therms) or a similar 150,000therms per month available for sale gas.

In addition to any sales gas there's the condensate (50bpd).

2023 Q1 and Q2 requires even more assumptions about the rolled forward hedge but spreading July and August's 207mmscf over the 2 quarters gives a daily extra 1mmscf/d meaning an average during Q1 and Q2 2023 of about 6.4mmscf/d.

There was no mention of the sidetrack, assuming the 2 wells can be ramped up to exceed this production level in 2023 might it be delayed to avoid further complications and expense.

I would be cautious about the 2 'rates' quoted for B2 and A4 and assuming they could be produced at that level for any length of time. Once Angus have flow and pressure data from the wells they will be better placed to predict future stable long term flows. The production profile in the CPR is based on 3 wells.

Still a lot of unknowns allowing a large range of opinions but the threat of not achieving the hedged volumes long term has subsided.

Whilst Angus may only update production infrequently NG provide daily figures so progress towards the expected production level/s can be seen and if they start exceeding the hedge by large amounts that would massively improve revenues during the early months of production assuming they sell at market price, as would further production from the sidetrack.

To save (my) time I'll answer as I did last week (to Joey):-

'You'll notice almost every reference is shale gas, not shale oil.

as for shale oil this is a conclusion in the BGS Weald Report - a comprehensive report about the shales in the Weald, this is from the report page 4:-

'There is a high degree of uncertainty in these figures. Indeed, there is a chance that there may be little or no ‘free oil’, given that the ‘oil saturation index’ is considerably less than 100 (see Jarvie 2012b) and what oil there is could be located entirely within the kerogen particles and would thus require heating/retorting to extract it. In these circumstances, the resource could no longer be categorised in terms of ‘shale oil’

Quite technical but pretty clear that fracking might not work at all on the basis of quality of the shale, not even considering the difficulties because it is already fractured.'

and (socotec):-

'have you read the BGS report? The Nutech 'billions of barrels' report seems to be somewhat discredited 7 years on - maybe their methodology was more suited to shales where fracking was already working?'

and (lemonjuice):-

'Rather than quote what the BGS hasn't said, like lemomnjuice, there's this paragraph from page 52 of the Weald Report about all the clays in the Weald, Kimmeridge, Oxford, Corallian and the three Lias layers, of which the Kimmeridge is by far the best quality:-

'Even corrected potential oil yields are generally poor when compared to the shale oil plays of the USA (Figures 39b & c, Table 10). It should be noted that yields comparable to those proposed for the Weald Basin, even for the averaged Kimmeridge Clay, might be considered non-commercial in the USA.'

Apart from Nutech nobody has proposed that any oil is likely to be produced from these lower grade shales, and so far the only oil produced has been from the fractured micrites of the Kimmeridge, and even these haven't been put into commercial production.'

Adrian keeps lemonleaf off this board.

Adrian was banned for life (finally for posts on the ANGS board as 'freeasabird' after multiple temporary bans - but thinks silly things like 'rules' don't apply to hom.