Member Info for Penguins

Ells,

UKOG has been executing growth plans for the last 7 years.

You say don't look at the past but what has changed - just because you have 'invested' doesn't mean that the projects they chose years ago - even Turkey is now over 2 years - have suddenly got better- they appear instead to be following a plan of throwing good money after bad rather than anynew strategy.

Ells,

can you please show what you estimate what UKOG's cash value is - and what it consists of - it certainly isn't the cash in bank.

They have a NPV, decided by the company, not independantly, for HH-1, of less than £4mm, it's debateable whether even that can be included - they tweeted they were planning HH seismic in early July - never mentioned again - will everything have to wait until they have the cash for more seismic - the Basur-3 well showing how wrong interprtations can be with insufficient, old, seismic.

Their contingent resources for Basur Resan have been shredded by the new mapping, and no target until, or if, the phase 2 seismic confirms the poorly controlled lead, and they are waiting for someone else to pay for a well at Loxley - in an area that has problems with depth conversion because of statics problems - the Basur-3 well was meant to be less risky than Loxley......

The only way in the next few years they can monetise the Portland gas storage project is sell it on after they have planning for it approved, and the HH geothermal seems to be forgotten.

As for cash it appears the first raise this year was getting spent as it was meant for acquisition and processing the phase 2 Basur seismic, yet the second included helping deliver the processing - and anyway it's predicated for Turkish activity and of course keeping the company going.

Ells,

We can all repeat posts, but you're heading to have posted 20% of (undeleted) UKOG posts in the last 30 days (315 out of about 1700) with your claptrap about trading, charts, other posters and 0.08p yesterday. Seems pretty desperate for someone so assured about charting,.

problem is at the moment they haven't farmed out, in the pre-planned farmout, Loxley.

Turkey - prior to the phase 2 seismic they didn't have a viable target - and we don't know how reliable what they propose will be.

The Portland project is still not definitely going ahead - gas storage projects, like any infrastructure project, require a long period of payback or are otherwise uncommercial - otherwise huge government subsidies required

HH - the Kimmeridge must be risky otherwise they would have sidetracked HH-1 and got on with drilling some of the additional wells - they also suggested on twitter that they would shoot seismic for HH, presumably needed - then forgotten.

As for the millions in the bank - that's committed to Turkey - probably because they can't control the expenditure proposed by AME - and keeping th lights on. They'll need more to do anything else - and almost certainly to complete the well in Turkey - using the phrase 'help deliver', not 'fully funded', which means nothing anyway.

Mirasol,

They do have hot water coming out of the well/s - probably enough, and hot enough, to keep a large greenhouse warm - but hardly a geothermal bonanza / hub(?).

UKOG would still need to dispose of the water and it wouldn't be needed in the Summer. The issue then is it wouldn't be very high value using HH-1 but couldn't use HH-2z ('overwhelming' water production) for hot water production because they'd have to pay to dispose of lots of water - NSTA wouldn't let them use HH-1, and I suspect the disposal costs would be more than any value of the hot water.

Upfront infrastructure costs would almost certainly destroy any NPValue to UKOG for almost any scenario except perhaps another failed well!.

There also is a time limit on Loxley which maybe ocelot has 'forgotten', December 31st 2023 though I'm sure the NSTA would extend the drilling deadline.

PS ells - this is called discussion. Not screaming greenie at other posters or claiming what a fantastic trader one is - and as you like links here's one that links to the tweeter you linked - seems to have gone over to the realistic side. In case the link doesn't work I've added one of 1CTREK's tweets from July 2020:-

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=(UKOG)%20(%401CTREK)&src=typed_query&f=live

'Hatcham@1CTREK
This suggests HH is a dead duck. Why would you gamble millions in Turkey lol? When all permissions are in place to drill a further 4 wells. It appears HH, BB, Brockham and Lidsey all Dusters. Anyone investing in #Ukog is insane'

Your problem ells is claiming that posting realistically about UKOG = greenie.

Often the difference between a tweeter (and poster) being positive or negative about UKOG is time - and for different reasons that includes your new BFF.

Strangely I've not had a Damascene conversion about UKOG, I've always been suspicious of the claims made by UKOG (and explained why) ever since the billions of barrels supposedly recoverable from the Kimmeridge - and it isn't because I'm a greenie, Nimby, xr, stop oil, loss making investor, Ruth, etc.

You mean this tweet:-

'Replying to @Adrianwfire
-A good guideline is the desperation of serial deramper, and known greenie Penguins,on LSE, a poster who averages just over 20 posts a month, has 89 in the last 30 days?? All on UKOG! You can smell the panic8:29 PM Aug 7, 2018'

SP was then just under 2p - or about 30 times today's price. I wasn't negative enough.

So your point is - that UKOG is a pyramid scheme with promoters like Adrian and this tweeter?

Seems I was right to be negative about HH - the long term ewt was just under way and there was all sorts of rubbish being posted and tweeted.

Of course unlike you who changes account when you get rumbled I have only ever had this account and don't 'do' twitter- and stand by my posting record.

Ells,

jeez, put another record on. All you seem to do on a discussion board is praise your own trading skills and make completely unfounded (and rubbish) accusations about other posters.

Meanwhile the SP has dropped from your entry over 0.09p in July to today's SP - which incidentally didn't close at 0.08p as you predicted only yesterday (mabe you messed up 'modifying' your chart) - I expect you were really hoping for the trading experts 'I wouldn't want to be out over the weekend' unfortunately a bit of a worn out ruse for UKOG as too often Monday morning doesn't bring fantastic news - probably more often 'bad' news.

But this trading and charting you spend so much time telling of your 'expertise' here's one of your 'useful' bits of information (price 0.088p on 30 Aug 2022 13:48).

'RE: 12h09 v 12h37
I get paid by buying @ 52 week lows'

Well - maybe that works if you understand the share, not the chart, and it is the last 52 week low.

But here's someone who doesn't use charts opinion on 27 July - 'placing day'

'You may see a quick fall to 0.08. I think 0.06 may be a bit too far (atm).'

and this from our resident charting expert on 28 July- presumably following the 52 week low maxim:-

'Funds secured for working capital. 52 week lows. Double bottom. This is a buy in my eyes.'

Anyway - you keep 'believing'.

problem is at the moment they haven't farmed out, in the pre-planned farmout, Loxley.

Turkey - prior to the phase 2 seismic they didn't have a viable target - and we don't know how reliable what they propose will be.

The Portland project is still not definitely going ahead - gas storage projects, like any infrastructure project, require a long period of payback or are otherwise uncommercial - otherwise huge government subsidies required

HH - the Kimmeridge must be risky otherwise they would have sidetracked HH-1 and got on with drilling some of the additional wells - they also suggested on twitter that they would shoot seismic for HH, presumably needed - then forgotten.

As for the millions in the bank - that's committed to Turkey - probably because they can't control the expenditure proposed by AME - and keeping th lights on. They'll need more to do anything else - and almost certainly to complete the well in Turkey - using the phrase 'help deliver', not 'fully funded', which means nothing anyway. Here's a recent example of raising again for something apparently fully funded from a raise 6 weeks before.

27/07/22:- 'The placing's proceeds will be sufficient to acquire and process the further planned, but previously unbudgeted, Phase 2 seismic'
12/09/22:- to help deliver the Company's previously stated near term goals of completing the Phase 2 Turkey seismic programm

I wonder who Ells is addressing, rather than who he thinks he's addressing?

'There you are green eco 6000 de-ramping post activists'

I see most of those posting he claims are past investors and have lost a lot of money, and most of those are complaining that SS isn't producing enough oil or keeps choosing duff projects and point out that UKOG seems incapable of progressing anything at anything other than snail's pace.

Surely 'greens' wouldn't invest heavily in an oil company, nor complain they should spend their money more wisely, nor want UKOG to accelerate progress?

I suppose he and his new BFF have to claim thta the reason that posters who have complained for years about the company is because they are 'green' activists - not because they've seen through the company's BS for years and have explained why - saying someone has been posting negatively for years is admitting how accurate they have been, usually made by those that have been posting positively whilst the SP has gone inexorably lower.

Wizard,

'It seems slightly better news with the produced water % falling'

Not sure it's that positive - it isn't even back to the water cut levels seen before last years workover (33% vs <30%)

More likely due to the well being shut in for a month enabling some pressure build up holding the water from the fractures back slightly better. The gas / barrel of oil was significantly lower than June's - and down to levels seen before last year's workover - probably also an effect of the months shut-in allowing pressure to bild up.

Let's see what September's figures are before getting too excited about August's.

Oh dear looks like someone is panicking that talk of tankers and mysterious onjects on twitter isn't working. Now pairing with our 'professional' trader who does charts and stuff (but very little about UKOG) - though seems pretty simple stuff, anyone can find a 52 week low - it's knowing if it's the last that counts.

Ells,

'When UKOG hit >10p did they produce billions of barrels of oil'

Mabe not but they claimed they might - guess those that sold at a profit knew it wasn't likely.

Maybe some of those are still negative about UKOG. Knowing there's no fundamental value underlying rises is much more useful than a 'triple bottom' or other chartist fantasy.

So often charts show the SP eternally rising 'soon' because they've contrived line/s though selected, not unique, points, or related to one of the moving averages.......... sometimes they get lucky, guess right, or even initiate a P&D based on other 'believers', and then news emerges that appears positive - the SP rises but then drops back, not rise inexorably - certainly the experience with UKOG.

The question is how low will it go before that news arrives.

One thing for sure is no news that will affect the fundamentals is likely for some time - a drill at Loxley or Basur is unlikely until H1 2023, or even HH-2z conversion later this year - though I'm not sure that the HH-2z conversion would actually achieve an NPV for Horse Hill anywhere near the current market cap.

Pboo,

It's called research about what this thread was discussing - production in July - and I quote both UKOG RNS and tweets as well as FOTH's tweets

Unless it can be verified elsewhere I'm cautious about believing any commentary on twitter including about HH - and for HH specifically unless it's accompanied by a picture or video that clearly shows what's being claimed.

Too often assumptions or suggestions are made about what is happening that prove to be incorrect even when something is photographed or videod (the flare being an example)- putting it politely you yourself have highlighted shortfalls in the reporting.

I'm pretty sure the only HH production bopd UKOG have mentioned since start of production was the over 300bopd produced initially (28/4/2020), with infrequent mentions of decline and water production since without details.

Of course speculation is rife when UKOG leave it to the NSTA to divulge production levels without any discussion as to what is happening (and will happen - rather than vague 'plans' and preparations). It also allows some the opportunity to try and manipulate the market.

FOTH reported the pump was off HH-1 on July 4. Interesting that production in July (189bbls) approximated to a bit more than 3 days production as seen in June (55bopd).

'Adrian the Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1
Jul 4
#ukog Pumps off the HH1 well head.
Going for a closer look.
FOTH'

and then on the 6 July UKOG reported on twitter the job was completed:-

'UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM
Jul 6
HORSE HILL UPDATE: New downhole pump and polished rod being installed. Job completed safely and in double-quick time.'

Then in August UKOG RNS'd that the only work on HH-1 was installing the pump - any work on HH-2z, assuming any was done, shouldn't prevent production from HH-1 (though without a CTU or workover rig HH-2z work would be limited) - they continued testing HH-1 when HH-2/2z was being drilled and tested in 2019.

'Following the Environment Agency's full Horse Hill production consent in May this year, a new Unico pump has recently been installed in the HH-1 oil producer. The prior pump is being refurbished as an additional spare. Preparatory work towards converting HH-2z into a produced saline water reinjector continues'

FOTH reported a tanker leaving the site on 14 July and the pump was working well - but when here as 'shakerandmover' claimed FOTH must have assumed that the pump was working on HH-1 because of the tanker (and bizarrely in October on twitter claimed a surface pump was on HH-2z) but in August:-

'Adrian the Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1
Aug 8
#UKOG #Horsehill is back up and running again with the first Tanker out @N66BKP
. After weeks of work being carried. That big new pump is doing its job !)
Viva!
Adrian'

The question is what were they doing for the rest of the month?

Was there a problem with the installed new pump, was there more unmentioned work on the well - or was there HSE COMAH site work being carried out that required halting production.

Ells,

you've not bee here long enough to have witnessed the 'tanker trick' in action. The number of times that those watching the site have reported multiple tankers in a day and then posters claim that represents daily production - think the best was 4 tankers meaning production was over 800bopd.

Previous work on HH-1 in September 2020:-

'the intervention's objective was to optimise oil flow by reperforating the full Portland oil producing section, inserting a new production tubing string and thus enabling the downhole pump to be placed at a deeper level'

- didn't improve production - nor did replacing the pump with a 'bigger' one in May 2020, with plenty of posters claiming that production would improve as it was a 1,000 bopd capacity pump.

Assuming all they did to HH-1 was change the pump (what they RNS'd) it seems unlikely production has been significantly improved - I guess we'll see when NSTA publish figures for September, October and November.

Ocelot,

The downward price movement as you put it was probably because there were a lot of shares available cheaply as the placees of the placing/s dumped their stock Apparently those market experts took the view there wasn't much chance of selling all of them for what they paid or more.

Whilst you are insistent that the past performance of the management and their choice of projects, coupled with poor communication of the risks rather than over stating the rewards shouldn' feature in an assessment of likely future outcomes - perhaps the market is not so blinkered.

Just waiting for news about HH, Loxley and Turkey - all of which have been promised to be transformational in the past - is probably wise with poor results so far at HH and Turkey, and a pre-planned farmout that despite the posts and tweets suggesting it would happen quickly (because no other farm out was ever planned before being marketed?) Is now heading for well over 3 months in gestation.

Previous plans for these projects had HH-2z converted ages ago, Basur producing in 2021 and Loxley site being prepared about now. Whatever news and plans are finally released to the expectant hordes timeliness and results, based on previous performance, are unlikely to be met unless UKOG changes its MO and stops over promising and under performing.

Seems currently not overpromising means saying nothing at all.

Courtesy of ocelot - from the RNS of 16/09 - with additions:

'... acquisition of the Phase 2 seismic programme over its Turkey Resan licence (UKOG 50% interest) has now been successfully completed and the field crew demobilised. The programme, consisting of four new 2D seismic lines over the possible updip western extent of the Basur-1 oil discovery and Prospect B to the south, was delivered ahead of schedule and under budget.'

However despite being 'under budget' you might have noticed that despite the July raise claiming to fully fund the acquisition and processing ('The placing's proceeds will be sufficient to acquire and process the further planned, but previously unbudgeted, Phase 2 seismic') the recent (September) raise was 'to help deliver the Company's previously stated near term goals of completing the Phase 2 Turkey seismic programme'....and of course to help deliver the well.

'Once the seismic has been processed, final versions received in house, interpreted and a new top reservoir map made, the Company will provide a further update of the results.'

Hopefully it might somehow confirm the extension to Basur-1 that we squeezed in between the earlier dip lines, or maybe Lead B will somehow be closed - failing that we might conjure up something based on whatever is leaking oil to the surface - if not we'll have to head towards Basur-1 from the Basur-3 site.

'The Company will then focus firmly upon the delivery of a new Basur appraisal well, now anticipated to be able to add near-term oil production to the Company in H1 2023.'

Let's hope you've forgotten that was more or less what we promised for Basur-3 - though for 2021, and at least we had the decency to add 'in the success case. Basur-3 was the first appraisal of Basur-1 'discovery' which we forgot to previously mention produced water after 6 hours. Please don't refer to the map on twitter, which shows that the phase 1 seismic showed that the closure at Basur-1 is small, in case we go back to plan 'B' of effectively a drill to beside Basur-1, but a P&D on an oil show is almost guaranteed. Depending on how big we've managed to make it we might issue some OIP figures as the closure after the phase 1 seismic was considerably less than previously indicated (yes - we never showed a proper map) for Basur-Resan.

Still at least at HH UKOG are still running the tanker trick ably helped by twitter - with a new twist - the unknown wrapped item, and not forgetting the 'pre planned' farm out of Loxley that meant it would happen quickly - announced in July.

What is needed is some 'real' news with an intention to do something not just vaue preparing to do something without a timetable (Loxley farm out, HH-2z conversion, even Turkey drill) - these mini-pumps fizzle out without news - but may be an opportunity to trade.

Ells,

'Lots of instant green boxes after “Presentation” thread'

Usual BS about other poster's rather than the content of the presentation, or anything about the company.

Have you filtered Ian who's 12, ocelot and here's hoping who 'instantly replied amongst others last night - an of course yourself amongst others who responded 'instantly' this morning.

But this presentation reminds me of the ridiculous Ernst & Young Kimmeridge report 5 years ago - based on what UKOG told EY was going to happen - billions I tell ya - that predictably didn't.

It's a noble aim but not going to help for many many years and quite possibly uncommercial because of uncertainty over what happens over the next decade with UK gas consumption, paybacck happens over decades with that sort of utility infrastructure project..

A few pretty slides, the Company 'supporting' the government's aims and a quote from Kwasi Kwarteng warmly supporting the project does not mean it's on the government's list of national infrastructure projects - the UK gov certainly won't be stumping up the billion probably needed to do it.

If only they had got on and sorted out, or ditched, the projects they should be capable of doing with the money raised in the last few years without the 'sideshow' projects (geothermal, solar, US etc) mentioned seemingly just to distract from the poor performance / likely outcomes of the O&G E&P projects they are operating or partnering.

What a ridiculous post.

You can't seem to decide whether those that have predicted how poor UKOG projects are greens trying to bring the SP down - in which case, though doubt it's because of posting on this board, we've won, or we are disgruntled investors - in which case we've got a valid argument that the company is rubbish.

I'm neither - I trade, like you, but I refuse to lie about my opinion of what UKOG tell investors and how poor the projects are. Researched knowledge has stood me in good stead so far. If the SP rises on news unless it's backed up with rapid action and good results be sure the SP will drop. But of course you know that and will be out on the first decent P&D.

Ocelot,

when you filter almost every other poster, then post an opinion about the posts/posters that you don't read there is no context - just bias

You're getting abusive.

Making unsubstantiated and ridiculous claims about another poster (emojis indeed, practicallly terrorism!!!!)

I can see why you need to delete your account every now and then. You made a classic bullies claim that you were being unfairly targeted.

Might I suggest that you get targeted because of your own actions judging by your current posting.

Linking to lifetime banned Adrian who managed over 100 posts in 2 days just on this board is hardly 'proof' of anything except your own desperation.

He has become very bitter towards posters that understand UKOG's activities better than him even though he visits HH. In vain attempts to show his visiting gains him extra knowledge he is liable to make claims the are simply not true - and then resorts to unprovable insults on twitter - when he's not posting the same here.

PS trying to stop another poster posting is against the rules- though I'm pretty sure that being better at predicting the direction of travel of the SP than you isn't a valid reason.

'm. restrict or inhibit any other user from using the boards'

I'm not sure of your logic - but serious 'investors' - a pump and dumper and a poster who has been positive about UKOG since 10p and confessed to knowing nothing about O&G E&P - I see expert's got brave and showed up.

As for UKOG either I'm accused of being repetitive or not saying anything - make your mind (if you have one left) up.

Currently UKOG has permission in the UK to drill Loxley, convert HH-2z to an injection well and drill at least 4 more wells at Horse Hill.

Yet they want to drill in Turkey where they have and intend to continue spending the cash recently raised but they don't currently have a prospect to drill, and haven't produced new volumetrics for the most recent mapping - which has a considerably smaller area of closure than previously indicated. They also raised to 'help deliver' the well, not fully fund it - so a raise probably on the cards even if not before drilliing starts.

Seems hope that 'something turns up' in Turkey is more attractive than doing anyting at HH where HH-2z conversion has been on the cards for a couple of years which will require a workover rig or CTU - unfunded, though they don't seem to be in a hurry to do it. The hesitency to do the HH-2z conversion, since being granted EA permission in May having had a couple of years to plan and prepare since the decision to do it, suggests it might not have the positive effect many expect - as for the extra wells again UKOG in no hurry to do anything. Any more news about the pump Adrian claims he saw on HH-2z in July during the HH-1 workover when it's a horizontal and has a downhole electric pump (ESP).

Then there's BB - silence - seems site pp renewal is to delay site restoration.

Loxley - if a farminee is found there's a possibility the well won't be fully carried, and the farminee may be in more of a hurry than UKOG - more funds would be needed for that. UKOG claimed Basur-3 was probably less risky than Loxley - so please don't mention Basur-3 was a failure.

Suggestions that Turkey would fund work in the UK forgets that the 'plan' was if Basur was successful any profit would be used to drill more appraisal wells. Same will be true for any future wells there.

BTW, Adrian no one is 'scared' of you - but you are a nuisance (which presumably is your 'aim') all you do is throw around accusations that are wholly your own opinion - something that has been shown fairly often to be worth nothing - and filling up the board with meaningless posts you know (and ensure) will disappear.

If anything your posting this weekend trying to suppress discussion suggests that you've over invested and worried the SP may drop further. 100 posts in 24 hours illustrates how unhinged you've become.

Adrian,

When you repeatedly choose to lie about me of course I might reply. But everyone knows you just make stuff up as you don't know who anyone on this board apart from your 'mates' (except when they're not) - and you also make stuff up about what you supposedly see at HH - and it's interesting that you claim that N66 doesn't tip you off - seems remarkable that you happen to be at the site when it's such a rare occurrance - and if it isn't true - welcome to being lied about.