Member Info for Penguins

Ells,

Adrian - who incidentally you keep linking tweets to, keeps sneaking onto this board (fake accounts here), and insults posters from his twitter account, hence being commented about here.

But only in Adrian's mind does he keep proving posters wrong - usually inventing something supposedly posted and then claiming he's 'proved' it wrong.

still repeating things you can't justify, making up fantasy stories about other posters as if you know their portfolio and strategies.

You keep telling us what a great trader you are but now appear to be waiting to buy at 0.6p?

'I own 0.09, 0.068 and will own more around 0.06'

Not sure your chart at 0.9p ish showed you that great strategy but high and average down

Perhaps all the idiots here who don't use charts but common sense had an inkling it would go (much) lower - even Adrian held off buying for a while. Not because they're (or even Adrian) green, activists, or even shorters or CFD holders (though it seems impossible to do that as an amateur) but because they know the company - even Adrian in his more lucid moments knows that PR by UKOG is abysmal.

Yes there may well be a P&D on some 'news', we all know that, but success on risky ventures is elusive as UKOG have ably demonstrated and an infrastructure / utilities project like Portland will take years (decades) to monetise unless they sell the project on - which I suspect is their aim after gaining planning permission.

Goreman,

how much of that is left?

wrt oil sales as nobody knows what the cost of water disposal is, and what the OPEX is as UKOG quoted a per barrel cost when UKOG were expecting 300bopd - per barrel of fixed costs could have risen 5 times - what is left will be considerably reduced from your guess. The fact they keep raising (and include 'general working capital' as an item) suggests there isn't that much left.

as you're just copying 'old' posts here' my take (again).

Usual waffle

'Millions in the bank (2 successive placings this year) - How many millions? First raise appeared to be spent - second raise only for Turkey and keeping lights on.

'Permit to drill further wells on the Kimmeridge @ Horse Hill (increased flow rates expected in Q4 2022 and beyond, lots of oil tankers seen on site early November)' - How many tankers? No mention by UKOG of increased flow rate, permission to drill wells in Kimmeridge - but didn't even drill sidetrack HH-1z 'expected' in 2019 - big issues with Kimmeridge

Water re-injector proposal to reduce waste costs @ Horse Hill - need cash to do this - had permission for months

Proposed Turkey Basur-Resan drill by Q1/Q2 2023 (seismic data currently being analysed) - first well despite being less risky than Loxley drilled in wrong place. No target yet - map on phase one seismic had odd closure inbetween dip lines, closure significantly smaller than previously indicated = OIP volumes reduced.

Farm-out of Loxley gas project (more £££ in the bank) - no, hopefully if they get their costs covered if they farm it out but lose equity = less £££ spent they don't have anyway.

Pre-planned farmout been 'available' for months - no mention of progressby UKOG so far.

Significant infrastructure projects are not government fundedand then there is past performance whether you like i and geothermal at HH will be low key if it happens as not a 'hot spot'.

plenty of opportunity for P&D's on 'news'. But whether any of these will happen or be successful - who knows - I suppose many don't care.

Here's a few either no longer proceeding or missing in action many claimed to be saviours of the company and worthy of multiple P&D's :-

Markwells Wood
Baxters Copse
Arreton-3
Godshill-1
Holmwood / A24
BB-1y
Resan-6
HH-1z
HH-3
HH-4
HH Gas to wire - money was even raised (supposedly) to buy the generators
Solar
Geothermal
USA

and for the 'unsuccessful list:

BB
HH-2
Basur-3
and just about successful, barely economic (saved by the OP) HH-1.

This is why many are still bearish - seen so many claimed to be huge projects turn to dust on less evidence of possible failure.

Ells

Don't lie about what others have posted unless you have proof. BTW Bear in mind that linking to anything tweeted by @davethedrill1 is definitely not proof of anything except your desperation.

But what is your evidence that production will improve because of the new pump - UKOG haven't claimed it would.

Production did improve after the well was shut in for a month and water cut dropped - but that is most likely because the reservoir pressure improved allowing higher production with less water short term. We'll see what production following August is eventually from the NSTA as UKOG keep shtum about it.

So ocelot is a trader - alternatively is making the big mistake of not trading at all. Though as ocelot rarely posts anything except 'positive' things, especially during P&D's right through to when the dump happnes - so when is ocelot's trading taking place - when posting the SP will go higher.

'some of the naysayers don't trade all, otherwise they would not make some very basic mistakes in their posts.'.

But as ocelot filters all these 'naysayers' - that's those that have disagreed when ocelot is posting relentlessly how great things are while the SP has dropped from 10p - how can ocelot know what they are saying.

To save another post - Adrian - 'maybe if you didn't address posters with insults' 'they' would engage - but when you do sneak on here all you do is post unjustified insults relentlessly at other posters just because you'd prefer honest opinions suppressed - you certainly don't engage when your views are challenged.

But wrt oil sales as nobody knows what the cost of water disposal is, and what the OPEX is as UKOG quoted a per barrel cost when UKOG were expecting 300bopd, what is left will be considerably reduced from your guess. The fact they keep raising (and include 'general working capital' as an item) suggests there isn't that much left.

Ells,

you keep on menitioning 'cash value' whilst avoiding what it consists of so can you please show what you estimate UKOG's cash value to be - and what it consists of - it certainly isn't the cash in bank.

They have a NPV, decided by the company, not independantly, for HH-1, of less than £4mm, it's debateable whether even that can be included - they tweeted they were planning HH seismic in early July - never mentioned again - will everything have to wait until they have the cash for more seismic - the Basur-3 well showing how wrong interpretations can be with insufficient, and old, seismic.

Their contingent resources for Basur Resan have been shredded by the new mapping, and no target until, or if, the phase 2 seismic confirms the poorly controlled lead, and they are waiting for someone else to pay for a well at Loxley - in an area that has problems with depth conversion because of statics problems - the Basur-3 well was meant to be less risky than Loxley......

The only way in the next few years they can monetise the Portland gas storage project is sell it on after they have planning for it approved, and the HH geothermal seems to be forgotten.

As for acual cash it appears the first raise this year was getting spent as it was meant for acquisition and processing the phase 2 Basur seismic, yet the second included helping deliver the processing - and anyway it's all destined for Turkish activity - and of course keeping the company going.

You keep saying millions - how many, and how many do they need just to keep going - there's all that activity on HH Adrian keeps banging on about to pay for.

ells,

did you by another share you 'knew' would rise because you 'knew' UKOG would drop - or did you hope they would do the opposite of each other so a rise in UKOG would offset the drop in the other share.

Perhaps you should have put all your investment in the other share?

Trader76,

Looking at your history you like director's purchases don't you - the difference with SS is that most of the other company directors you quote buy in tens of thousands of pounds each time - not the £1000 monthly that was forced upon him and even then delayed six months - it was 'expected' (a favourite UKOG weasel word) to start in July 2020.

Though it seems director purchases didn't stop those companies you've quoted SP dropping like SS's - I expect, like SS, they have a comfortable salary to help with the pain.

ocelot,

as long as you keep lapping up UKOG's PR it's obviously worth them taking the time to write it.

If only they were as good executing their plans as writing about them.

Here's what they wrote in a 2017 Corporate Presentation subtitled:- 'Future Onshore Energy for Britain'

'Develop and control the KL oil play
• Demonstrate KL commerciality: Move Horse Hill-1
KL into production by end 2018
• - HH-1 production tests in 2017
- HH-1/1z production wellbores in 2018
- KL production target >1000 bopd by end 2018
• Replicate HH-1 within wider basin “sweet-spot”
- BB-1 in 2017, approvals granted
- H-1 in 2017, approvals granted
- GB-3 in 2018, site selected
• Consolidate and increase licence holdings
• Bring HH Portland to production by end 2018'

Last information slide:-

'Future peak oil production could provide approximately
4% - 27% of UK daily oil demand over the life of the project
Gross Value Added to the UK economy could range from
£7.1 billion to £52.6 billion
Generates a peak of 8,000 to 49,000 jobs in the UK
Lifetime tax revenues of between £2.1 billion to £18.1 billion'

.....................and then they drilled Broadford Bridge.

ells,

proof!!!!!!!

from a twitter account and you think that his 'opinion' is proof'.

You might as well link to Grimms fairy tales.

Perhaps you could find a prediction (when he's not deramping) that he's made that has come true rather than his fantasy that everyone he disagrees with is a swampy etc.

Even earlier today he tweeted false information about the number of barrels in a Ton - '1 ton of oil is 17 barells of oil' - except it was a 'Ton Register' a specific nautical volume measurement not a weight.

and note he never offers any evidence to back up many of the claims he makes about posters.

So if you want to continue to be deceived by Adrian filter those he hates because they point out the BS in his tweeting (and posts when he sneaks back on here).

Ocelot,

there could be many reasons why there's no news despite the farmout being pre-planned - whatever that means.

Perhaps there's no discussions for there to be rumours about, or they won't offer a full carry - which financially is a problem for UKOG as all cash is committed to Turkey.

Many were bullish that the farmout being pre-planned was pre-determined and would be announced quickly following the July RNS - 4 months ago.

BTW - they are looking for a partner to share the cost (or pay 100%) of a well to find out if there is a field to develop. Any suggestion there's a field waiting to be appraised is like many UKOG pronouncements dependent on their unscrutenised view being correct

as you're just copying 'old' posts here' my take (again).

Usual waffle

'Millions in the bank (2 successive placings this year) - How many millions? First raise appeared to be spent - second raise only for Turkey and keeping lights on.

'Permit to drill further wells on the Kimmeridge @ Horse Hill (increased flow rates expected in Q4 2022 and beyond, lots of oil tankers seen on site early November)' - How many tankers? No mention by UKOG of increased flow rate, permission to drill wells in Kimmeridge - but didn't even drill sidetrack HH-1z 'expected' in 2019 - big issues with Kimmeridge

Water re-injector proposal to reduce waste costs @ Horse Hill - need cash to do this - had permission for months

Proposed Turkey Basur-Resan drill by Q1/Q2 2023 (seismic data currently being analysed) - first well despite being less risky than Loxley drilled in wrong place. No target yet - map on phase one seismic had odd closure inbetween dip lines, closure significantly smaller than previously indicated = OIP volumes reduced.

Farm-out of Loxley gas project (more £££ in the bank) - no, hopefully if they get their costs covered if they farm it out but lose equity = less £££ spent they don't have anyway.

Pre-planned farmout been 'available' for months - no mention of progressby UKOG so far.

Significant infrastructure projects are not government fundedand then there is past performance whether you like i and geothermal at HH will be low key if it happens as not a 'hot spot'.

plenty of opportunity for P&D's on 'news'. But whether any of these will happen or be successful - who knows - I suppose many don't care.

Here's a few either no longer proceeding or missing in action many claimed to be saviours of the company and worthy of multiple P&D's :-

Markwells Wood
Baxters Copse
Arreton-3
Godshill-1
Holmwood / A24
BB-1y
Resan-6
HH-1z
HH-3
HH-4
HH Gas to wire - money was even raised (supposedly) to buy the generators
Solar
Geothermal
USA

and for the 'unsuccessful list:

BB
HH-2
Basur-3
and just about successful, barely economic (saved by the OP) HH-1.

This is why many are still bearish - seen so many claimed to be huge projects turn to dust on less evidence of possible failure.

Nookie,

One day there will be a RNS that will 'encourage' the market and the SP will rise.

You may be lucky.

But there have been numerous posters and experts that have prematurely predicted said RNS and despite being so wrong return to the board daily to say everyone ellse is wrong and are anti everything, including the market, and / or they don't understand charts or terms like 'cash value', 'triple bottom', or the most important buy signal- new all time low SP.

This afternoon, tomorrow, next week there may be an RNS about Loxley, Basur or HH but you can be pretty sure it won't mention risks just rewards that have so far failed to materialise so that when posters mention risk vs reward what they mean is they have no idea of the risks but believe every word of UKOG's reward - it's happened every time so far, and worked so why change now?

Adrian is trying to deceive his followers by finding an obsolete term (ton register) which is actually 100 cubic feet of storage on a ship - not a weight measurement at all.

The NSTA figures are for a tonne or 1000kg. To convert to barrels you need to take into account the sg of oil as a barrel is a volumetric measurement, not weight.

The easiest figure released by NSTA to use is therefore cubic metres - there are 6.2898 barrels in a cubic metre of oil.

Must be desperate pulling a stunt like that suggesting HH is producing much more oil than it is. - though even multiplying the production leaves it a fraction of what was claimed by UKOG.

ocelot,

plenty of opportunity for P&D's on 'news'. But whether any of these will happen or be successful - who knows - I suppose many don't care.

Here's a few either no longer proceeding or missing in action:-

Markwells Wood
Baxters Copse
Arreton-2
Arreton-3
Holmwood / A24
BB-1y
Resan-6
HH-1z
HH-3
HH-4
HH Gas to wire - money was even raised (supposedly) to buy the generators
Solar
Geothermal
USA

Your list is either new 'ideas' or at least they are still mentioned.

and for the 'unsuccessful list:

BB
HH-2
Basur-3
and just about succesful, barely economic (saved by the OP) HH-1.

Then there was this complete BS:_

rian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1Jan 15
#UKOG
OK Let's see who is full of ****e.

I'm calling Ibug out on
@LondonSouthEast . Let's see who's nearest. December /January. #Horsehill production is 108 bopd.

Ibug and [penguin icon] says HH is down to 49 bopd and declining. Bull****!
Game on!
FOTH'

it wasn't 108bopd - which Adrian claimed - and neither I nor Ibug said it would be 49bopd (Adrian's never produced anything to prove either of us did - though if it was true we were nearest as it was around 60bopd.

So much for tanker watching and claims of improved production...........

Just part of Adrian's ramping catalogue - which includes unidentified 'things on site', or 'work on site' etc.

but you tweeted there was a pump on HH-1 on 14 July. Then you tweeted last month that the pump was on HH-2z - which HH-2z doesn't need - and couldn't accomodate a surface pump.

UKOG did tweet the work was completed on 6 July.

and UKOG have not stated that any particular work was happening on HH-2z:-

'Following the Environment Agency's full Horse Hill production consent in May this year, a new Unico pump has recently been installed in the HH-1 oil producer. The prior pump is being refurbished as an additional spare. Preparatory work towards converting HH-2z into a produced saline water reinjector continues.'

You may have forgotten that you hinted that water injection preparatory work was ongoing last year when UKOG was doing first phase of COMAH regulations work.

eg.:- 'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1
Sep 15, 2021
£7k and £3k are my top ups ???? #ukog EA permit is a game changer. No more expensive waste water to tanker away. Pingo and the green meanies don't like the truth. But all good.'

Then when it was pointed out it wasn't HH-2z work you claimed that posters had said there was no work going on yet I posted this on 2 September:-

'R,

one day maybe when we're told something is happening at HH something will happen that actually improves the amount of oil produced.

You and the others have, on occasion, been just plain wrong analysing what you've seen - is that why we're now treated to the I've seen something, but I'm not saying what game, it avoids getting it wrong.

and no I'm not going down to the site - if UKOG are preparing for the HH-2z conversion maybe they've been given the nod permission is on it's way- but looking at posts and tweets it isn't unexpected.

or it could be to do with this (from Interim Results RNS June 2021):-

'We are carrying out modifications at the site to comply with The Control of Major Accident Hazards regulations (lower tier), as well as other regulations. Liaison continues with the Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency ("EA") to ensure the Horse Hill site satisfies these regulations.''

Pointless arguing with you because your main arguments are things you just make up - and can be proved to be:-

https://twitter.com/davethedrill1/status/1439884364884680704

Ocelot,

To save rime here's the bit about the Portlland project:-

'A giant, onshore gas storage facility could easily be developed, using existing salt caves which are ideal and natural. It would be the biggest hydrogen storage site in the UK. Offshore, in the English Channel, a new wind farm would produce the hydrogen to be stored'

Unfortunately there are no salt 'caves'. If there were any they wouldn't be natural, and it won't be easy to develop as the unnatural salt 'caves' take years to leach out. There isn't an offshore wind farm and the usability domestically of hydrogen is still being tested

To repeat the words 'easily developed' in their twitter feed for a project that won't be easily developed by a company that has serially illustrated the gulf between plans and execution is ridiculous when the outlay will be huge with probably no chance without government support of being economically viable.

Just another distraction, costing relatively large sums for a company that appears to have no cash to spend on it's core UK business of extracting oil and gas.

I noticed that they missed off the bit that showed how poorly the article had been researched:-

'using existing salt caves which are ideal and natural'

Firstly no salt 'caverns' and they won't be 'natural'.

So when that obvious mistake is included what else is complete fabrication - they're suggesting it could be put into use soon when it won't be - 'easily developed' - complete BS.

Shame on UKOG for tweeting it.

Ells,

this is an O&G E&P company. Exploring in heavily explored Basins the answers mostly lie 'in the past' exploration. Even if they use skewed numbers they are based on information 'from the past' and feed into how successful any venture might be. How do you think they ascertain risk? - and researching the available data gives a far more accurate indication of future success than a share chart - it may not predict P&D's but it certainly says sell on them rather than believe the 10p by Xmas, of even 0.08p by the weekend - which incidentally didn't happen.

One thing that uses data from the past exclusively that really doesn't influence the future is SP charts - unless you guess when a 'good' RNS will drop or you are an instigator of a group of P&D merchants selling that a conjunction of lines drawn through selected points, or averages means the ventures will be successful.

There have been multiple chartist (even self proclaimed experts) predicting a golden future without the subsequent fall back that certainly in UKOG's case has always happened as evidenced by the current SP.