Member Info for Pelle

Romaron, yeah its running more and more frequently last 1-2 years.
They say no shortage of electricity in Sweden but why is price then 10-20 higher today then other years?
And the big bakery got no to increase capacity with 50% due to electricity could not be guaranteed.

This will just get worse over next years

Hitman, that is net debt reduction.

HBR 10 times marketcap but only double FCF estimate 2022.
Will be happy to have a chat with mr Oil again end next year

Lets hope HBR can do another 4% next year at best.
Might also drop back to 300p.
Quite sure Enquest will outperform HBR next year again

Romaron, i don’t see any price for June 2023 in that link

June 2023 is 67 now.
Give or take I guess floor could be set 57 and ceiling 77.
Or they could widen or narrow the spread between floor and ceiling

https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-contracts

No Romaron,
The hedge for Nov 2021 + 11 months equals 9m barrels and that’s approx 60% production and this hedge is fixed and won’t move.
Most of the 2022 was done around half a year ago if I remember correctly.

The hedge is costless itself.
You have a floor price but downside is that if oil price go to 100 you still only get 76 for 60% production

Hedging

§ c.2 MMbbls have been hedged with an average ceiling price of c.$74/bbl for the last two months of 2021

§ For 2022, EnQuest has hedged a total of c.7 MMbbls predominantly with costless collars, with an average floor price of c.$61/bbl and an average ceiling price of c.$76/bbl. For 2023, the Group has hedged a total of c.2 MMbbls with an average floor price of c.$56/bbl and an average ceiling price of c.$74/bbl. Golden Eagle production is currently benefitting from the current strong oil price

Romaron, my understanding is that the hedge is cost free. And no impact within the range 61-76 usd.
60% volume hedged.
So if oil price average 100 next year.
0,6x76 = 45,6
0,4x100=40
They get 85,6 and this number I would use in my file

Hitman, around 700m with 55 at 77,5 oil

Romaron, 3b tax credits might last 5-10 years or so.
Unless we get bored to death before…

While other companies presented 5 years plans to return investments to shareholders AB gave nothing about future…

Jan, I have not given up.
Just need 239 usd average in Dec.
Stranger things have happened

Hello Romaron,
I think these cubas and helikon got a lot more information then us. Barclays must also got detailed information on for example Magnus production growth 2023. This Barclays analysis was not for retail owners, not sure how the Swedish guy got it.

Doubt cubas and Helikon would invest without seeing a 3-5 year Enquest plan what can be achieved on different oil price assumptions.

Good signs for the future

What additional information do you guys think Enquest give to cobus?

They already hedge 60% on 12 months horizon.
That horizon is about double compared to normal.
To stretch it even further you get lower prices and not much upside.
I think this is very fine what been done

Good work AB with GE.

https://tenor.com/view/anderson-paak-bubblin-money-pool-diving-gif-12149393

Londoner, I with you:-)
If it was two loads 1,2m barrels over two months and Enquest only have the 26% it’s not worth mentioning.
The field produce 2m + over that time.

75m knock down on final cash price on the deal most thought it sounded little.

I think they saved those 60-120 days / 1,2m barrels production in the tanks to avoid the tax.
For suncour I don’t see it would matter.
But for Enquest it’s maybe around 17-35m usd extra FCF on the zero tax position.

It might also been agreed ones they knew they running behind schedule closing the deal.

Therapist and Londoner
are you saying these two GE loads are 2x600k and only for Enquest?

Hello Tigar,

I used production numbers Nov-Dec so they reach 45k target full year and get end debt 1240m.
They will have a good margin on both targets.
Usually they have strongest FCF months end year.
Last year 100m Nov-Dec.

This SP brings eyes on open offer discounted price 19p with oil at 70-75. Sold out the open offer.
Now oil 80+ and saved 5 months on investment timeline and get opportunity buy below 19p.

In big picture nothing really changed for Enquest.
Except that the energy crisis arrived.

Amazing!

Here they talk about 15% FCF yield on the bigger oil companies as attractive.

Enquest is 100% + FCF yield

https://www.dagensps.se/investerardygnet/frestande-prognoser-rea-pa-aktier-i-oljebolag/

I have updated file and production Aug-Oct 40k.
July - Oct I get FCF 100m and they used 125m to finance GE.

With GE onboard and 100% Magnus FCF to Enquest until April it makes a huge difference Nov forward.
It’s maybe around 15k extra barrels.
I have 49k total production Nov - Dec split 45/53.
This should give 60m FCF per month forward at these oil prices including hedge realised price 76.

I can understand AB filling his pants with shares