Member Info for Pelle

Svensson, i think your too low in FCF 4-500m.
59k
200m capex
Oil 80

I get 780m.
I posted Barclays analys before and they had close to 500m FCF at 60 oil.
59k assume 9k to BP and Malaysia.
50k equal 18m barrels
20 usd on top 60 you have another 360m.
So they say 860m.

Just saying 4-500m is way too low if these prices hold

Romaron, 30% production equal 6m barrels been hedged at min max 61-75 if I remember correct.
Another 30% I expect been hedged during last 2 months I expect slightly better then first 30%. Let’s say we average 85 oil next year I think we get Enquest total price close to 80.

If oil average 65 we get around 65

After next update we can model it very easy

KO, funds will not bend the rules because Enquest give dividend.
But with for example with 1-2p dividend per quarter I expect retail to value it up very fast.

Good morning E,
Very good post, interesting see BP shell undervalued 40-50%. That just confirms Barclays 80p valuation at 80 oil. It’s undervalued 70-80% something. Lol

It’s one thing that European funds can’t invest, but why don’t for example US oil companies pick up these dirt cheap companies?
They would buy at super lower multiples and then get an multiple increase directly under new ownership.
Add in Enquest case add on would be 3b tax credits utilisation if the US company already have a UK business.

Another way look at it as you mentioned, partner up with someone regarding the tax credits. But you will need to give some of it away.
And the 3b is now within our own 4-6 year utilisation horizon. So I am not sure it’s good deal.

Anyway if things stay as un-normal as today and don’t get even worse with ESG.
Money will come out of these European companies one way or the other.
I will be surprised if undervaluation goes from 70-80% to 80-90%.

What a bargain these companies are!

AB said he prefer dividend vs share buybacks

This sounds promising

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-investors-embrace-fossil-fuels-during-a-sustainability-push-11635768000

Mcap now around 600m and EBITDA 1350m next 12 month on these oil prices.
Surprised no bigger companies put a bid on these European mid cap oilers.

I have already made a plan, reduce debt 8 months more then dividend.

Do finance people still use slide ruler?
Takes forever update numbers … lol

Anyway, someone noticed yday highest SP target updated from 0,76 usd to 0,82.

Under financial page, I think next year EBITDA and net income been updated.
But not net debt and FCF. FCF projection there still lower then this year. Lol

https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ENQUEST-PLC-6098532/consensus/

Plethorus, ok. Next year I have capex 200m that’s up from 120m this year . 80m for the drilling rough guesstimate.
2023, my guess would be around 200-250m.
2024, start of something bigger maybe

Hello Plethorus, you mean 22 vs 21?

Hello Romaron,

Debt/ EBITDA today 1,7
Debt/ EBITDA end next year 0,3

I posted this before. Today is snapshot of today so your numbers as comparing would have improved also.
Anyway, debt is not high anymore.
And if I was a lender I would not look much backwards at 1,7 ratio but rather the 0,3 ratio end next year with some safety on oil price.
If Enq Enq managed get the RBL 10 months ago at good rate. Our strength is 2-3 times now.

Things will happen fast from now

At the moment we at EBITDA around 750m last 12 months. EV around 2000m so multiple 2,7 Looking at IPCO for example seems around 3,5.
Next year if these oil prices continue we should get around 80usd. EBITDA will increase to 1350m.
Next year end debt 400m.
Using the multiple 2,7 we should be good for EV 3600m. Minus 400m debt equity equals 3200m.
Around 4,5 times today so around 100p.

That’s the potential here and still low valuations!

Interesting graph in this article.

https://www.dagensps.se/investerardygnet/klimatet-ger-oljepriset-en-ovantad-draghjalp/

I would rather think it’s some planned maintenance giving the timing after GE is added.

Like in Lamborghini,
Looking at Debt/EBITDA
EBITDA 12 month backwards
November 2020 to June 2021 average 57m / month.
Now November 2021 108m
So each month EBITDA improves 50m.

Debt/ EBITDA today 1,7
Debt/ EBITDA end year 0,3

That’s Lamborghini speed

Squif, P2 Barclays put end year net debt 1163m
That’s around what I get also.

In suncour last report it’s mentioned 250m they got.

Additional post during H2
GE 250m
Vendor loan 60m
Bank fee open offer 30m
So these items increase debt 340m

Below items reduce debt 320m
Open offer 50m
FCF H2 270m

So my conclusion is that net debt H1 of 1180m will be more of less same end H2.

And from now we looking at FCF 60-70m per month.

KO, GE is included in this analyse.
Nothing changed since it was done in July.
Only that oil price 84 and above their highest assumptions

Good morning KO,
Try worth 80p, that’s it with these oil prices.
Barclays says it and I agree

And I believe oil prices will be good for several years.
Just look where all the companies putting the money, it’s not on developing new fields