Member Info for Pelle

Good morning,
I got these files from Swedish poster Elex.
Barclays estimate 500m FCF at 60 oil, 70 oil will increase it 30%.
Page 4 there one NAV with 80 oil equal 80p+

There a lot to studdy in these files, specially for those who dont believe in numbers mention by many diffrent posters here

http://www.bilddump.se/bilder/20211030092512-185.205.224.53.png
http://www.bilddump.se/bilder/20211030092650-185.205.224.53.png
http://www.bilddump.se/bilder/20211030092724-185.205.224.53.png
http://www.bilddump.se/bilder/20211030092749-185.205.224.53.png
http://www.bilddump.se/bilder/20211030092813-185.205.224.53.png
http://www.bilddump.se/bilder/20211030092841-185.205.224.53.png

Romaron and others,
Seems dating hard in UK with KO and Squif.
Anyway, I meet up with one holder here in Sweden few months ago and we planning a meet-up dinner once we reach 4 SEK with few others.
Let me know if any serious holder interested visit Malmö.

And another part that is interesting that Romaron follow. I don’t get how one part of the professional investors value up the bond to par but equity don’t get same up valuation.
Are they allowed buy oil bonds but not equity?
So we relying on retail investors and few odd hedge fonds for the equity ?

KO, comparing with pre pandemic yes we reached something like 30p. Debt slightly higher the today and we issued some new shares so give or take EV was same as today 2b.

Now what’s interesting, back then oil price around 60 and we had a few old assets with high cost production.
Now replaced with GE.
Looking at my files projection of FCF was around 350m and now it’s 700m +.
Let’s say valuation back then was 5xFCF.
With 5 multiple today we should be 84p.

And back then debt free profile was 41 months vs 18 months today.
That’s how cheap it’s today!

In 12 months you up 150% and SE 180% due to currency effect.
Agree it should been more up as it’s solid now vs dust bin

Lol Squif, your not quiet are you?
Did I say timeline?
We up 200% in a year.

I split my holding into Africa Oil also. They promise dividend. I have over hedged my Enquest position so I can rebuy it when I want to. Get additional money next year and increase holding again

Squif, did you sold your big holding?
AB is welcome come with a bid, everything above 60p we will consider

Its retail traders, today bought 800k shares net so far.

How do you know KO?

London closed today?

Surprised oil price not above 100 yet.
Probably it will be in winter

https://www.dagensps.se/teknikdygnet/hallbarhet/kina-har-ranson-pa-diesel-drabbar-hela-varlden/

Romaron, I am impressed you read and listen to so many oil peers.
Debt / CFO, I agree should be around 1 in Q1.
It’s bit like comparing apples and pears with Exxon.
During last 5 years they increased debt 50% while Enq reduced it 50%.
They borrowed for dividend. I would never ask for it.

The last AB comment I remember, we feel very confident at 60 oil! Does it mean that at 80 oil 400m can be returned to shareholders?
AB, talked about dividend needs to be sustainable..
I say don’t use Exxon as example. But rather return everything that’s above x oil price each quarter.
Maybe x is between 60-70 usd next year.

Another note, the GE RNS was the most boring I ever read. And that deal was like hitting the jackpot, oil goes from 50 to 80 and from now basically double Enq FCF. Why keep quiet?

Hello E,
I have Petronas in my excel model.
Below I just wanted highlight it’s not that easy get 90 usd for 100% production

Kamrat, 6m barrels are already hedged 2022 with maximum price 75 usd. That’s 30% production.
I would assume it’s for H1 and 60%.
So to get 90 usd H1 all production, spot price needs to be 112,5usd

Remember also it’s only 54k as 6k go unhedged to BP.

And I would assume between now and last update in September they have hedged another 6m barrels to reach the 60% requirements in RBL.
Hopefully this has been done in last weeks and a lot better than 75 max price.

This will be very interesting read in next update

Counting on last hedge information and if we now doing 60k minus 6k BP Magnus.
The 6m equal 61% of half year production and match the 60% RBL requirements.

Then at current oil price we should get Nov-Dec around 78 usd and H1 around 79 usd.

6 MMbbls hedged with an average floor of c.$62/bbl and ceiling price of c.$73/bbl in the second half of 2021. For 2022, EnQuest has hedged a total of c.6 MMbbls using similar structures, with an average floor price of c.$61/bbl and an average ceiling price of c.$75/bbl.

Räven the Fox started a discord if you want to join

https://www.avanza.se/placera/forum/forum/enquest.html#6493910

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonas_elofsson

Jonas Elofsson
@Jonas_Elofsson
·
14h
The Golden Eagle acquisition was completed late in Friday's em. Adds an additional 12,000 barrels per day, with OPEX about $ 6 / barrel (!). No tax in #Enquest in the next few years, large loss carryforwards of almost USD 3 billion that can be transferred to shareholders.

Jonas Elofsson
@Jonas_Elofsson
·
14h
#Enquest increases 9%. Is it now the stock market thinks that FCF yield> 100% (!) With today's production and oil price around $ 65 is well defensive?
Decent margin of safety on a fairly sung stock exchange. Even for a failed asset base such as oil.
Note, not recommendation.
#ENQ

Jan, have you also placed your shares in company like double A limited?

Sounds strange to me that AB would have placed the shares so dividend tax would be huge.

AB said he prefer dividend vs buybacks.

Without knowing, I would guess any dividend would go to double A limited without any tax.

Payed of send Krak to Turkey.
Lol

Enjoy the afternoon

Hello Kamrat,
In my view valuation of a field doesn’t change whatever you decide to do with the money.
Drilling other projects, reduce debt or dividend.

I would rather use the valuation 325m that was based on 50 oil.
Opex capex 20 so margin for FCF 30 usd.
Now oil price 85 so margin and FCF double and market valuation would double also.

But these valuations based on long term prices also.
So probably they paid a bit premium at 50 and today maybe you would not get the full 85 usd valuation.