Member Info for Pelle

Crude below 5 year average zone now and gasoline low also

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php

Simply too cheap based on 2022 numbers.
AB holds the joker EP also and think he last time mention after New Year.

PE 1 and EV / EBITDA 1 on next year.
Probably based on 70 oil or around.
Looks dirt cheap to me.
60% oil hedged on rolling 12 months.

Gap between SP targets and SP never been as big.

https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ENQUEST-PLC-6098532/financials/

Romaron, not sure I agree its class.
Send out such negative worded RNS and after use the opportunity to buy 5m shares.

Therapist, lol didn’t hear that “pang på rödbetan ” for long time. But actually we used it when younger a lot.
Your going on depth with your learning. Lol

Savemore, you need reduce BP share and Malaysia maybe around 7-9k to get correct hedge %

KO, 36,5 breakeven with 55k

55k production sounds about right.
Hedge 60% at max 76 usd.
So at this price I get 650m

We might get positive surprised on oil prices.
What price you guess?

KO, my file says 400m with 60 oil.
It’s different game with GE and 55k

Oil, have you read the Barclays analyse 6 pages?
They had 1160 end year net debt estimate so we behind due recent lower volume.
But they have 411m net debt reduction 2022 at 54,8k and 60 oil. This look very easy.

Shareholder equity 21/22/23
348/744/1205m

This will be a good ride over next year specially if oil stays 75+

Oil, I see it different.
2021 start / end
Debt same
Production up 20%+

Very unfortunate both Kraken and Magnus got problem at same time.
And as always by Enq to little future projections

From this point they can really reduce debt and maintain production by drilling.

KO, he can make a bid today.
If rules same as uk.
At 30% he needs make a mandatory bid but you don’t need accept.
At 90% they can force you to accept

Guru, he have 11% now so getting 90% not so easy.
Guess it needs a very generous premium bid.
Many have waited on this long time and future looks brighter then ever company wise.

Yes guru, agree.

If for example pointing out like we now estimate December production 55-60k.
And pointing more at the 100% Magnum FCF over next 5 month.

It’s very unfortunate that Magnus/Kraken problems at same time but it’s history now when Magnus soon fixed also.

A more forward looking update I doubt would have created this negative impact.

Squif, you really have a good side also. Lol.

If Enq had given a guidance for 8 or 14 months in this update and explain better we might have had a positive reaction instead.
Now we left in dark trying to put the pieces together about the future. Market doesn’t like this.

I have Theory,
New information that Enq get 100% FCF until April from Magnus.
New information that they have not hedged the required 60% 12 months and 40% second year.
This was agreed probably early this year for RBL.
Think Enquest didn’t like this requirement at all specially not the second year.

RBL today at 485m, from Nov to May I get FCF with 53k to around 450m.
They might have hedged 7m barrels first 5 months next year fully and will pay of the RBL.

To avoid the long term hedge.

Tigar, I think your correct, it’s the timeframe they anticipate.

Squif, 49k Nov Dec I split 45/53.
Also doubt they wana miss the 45k 1,5 month guidance. So might be better

Squif, seems about right without checking details your close enough.
Below about Magnus/ BP.
Reducing BP share Sept to March give extra 60m FCF.

The Group anticipates being entitled to 100% of Magnus cash flows through to the end of the first quarter of 2022 as it has settled the BP vendor payment.

I adjusted numbers, Aug-Oct 40k.
And estimate 49k Nov Dec to reach 45k full year.
Nov-Dec FCF 50m/month.

55k next year still give 700m at 80 oil.

Sad with Malaysia and Magnus and regarding Malaysia we were told in July it should be fixed by now.

I would say operations in many businesses now under pressure, maybe worse then ever during the pandemic.
Know one plastic factory in Western Europe now operating at 25% capacity due to worker shortage and restrictions even if they could sell 100% +.
Things are definitely not like before in world.

I think we are just in start of this energy crisis and will see 100+ oil next year.
Seems AB and team also betting on this with low hedge volume.
We will see!