Member Info for Pelle

No Kracky, but I doubt 65 oil will cut the mustard to both maintain production and pay down debt.

Romaron, why do you always compare to a few bad UK oil companies?
AOI and IPC yes Canada based and AOI with production in Africa and if I am not mistaken it’s in Enq peer group.
And I don’t think Nuttall have had any impact on companies debt reduction and I am not talking about valuations.

We should have been better of by now with the debt, as simple as that.

And I don’t think AB is worried about the hedging now.
But believe me he hates this restriction.
If he had played the cards better before he could have bought GE with cash and wouldn’t had restrictions.

MRC, and of course you don’t care if there lost money or time over the past 4-5 years as your not a long term holder. Instead you used these mistakes to your favour and even increased the fear by posts to get shares a few% cheaper at the lows.
So I don’t think you care if debt is 1200 or 500m now.

Yes, I like the stability of hedging but earlier they always had 6 months horizon except ones oil price collapsed.
Now it’s 15 months horizon in the best up cycle ever.
I don’t have short memory

Romaron, IPC and AOI about the same size and a lot debt also few years ago and 0 now basically.
Don’t see the difference where they located in terms of FCF and ability to paying down debt.
If so it’s a favour for Enq with the tax cuts.

I also didn’t buy Enq for hedge speculation but that’s really what they been doing and failed.
Suffer hedge up cycle 2018 and end hedge just when waivers for Iran sanctions send oil down.
Then again ending hedging before corona.
And hedge now longer then ever in the up cycle.
Because the earlier mistakes and stressed finance a year ago lendors now keeping AB on a short chain demanding hedge.
He didn’t have this chain before as he obviously could end hedging at wrong time twice.

You always waved this of, but it really sums up to a lot money. I am not asking for hedging to outperform average oil price.

I also think AB is not trying as hard as others with presenting the business and CMD etc.

I still believe in this, but I am not blind !

Romaron, yes maybe AB saved the company and of course no one thinks corona is his fault.
But the misjudged hedging or no hedging problem started already 2018/19 and still continues today.
So he put himself in the position.
It’s 500m + easy lost vs just maintaining and rolling same hedge position.
Other companies I follow that were in same seat as us 3-4 years ago are now 1-2 years ahead of Enquest.

I am quite sure this time if oil prices hold and hedging in place etc. we will get there but it’s really taken too much time and pain from shareholders

2018

Cash capital expenditure expected to be materially lower than 2017 at c.$250 million; includes drilling programmes at Kraken (DC4), PM8/Seligi and Heather. Net cash payments for capital expenditure in 2019 reduced by c.$60 million having agreed a reduction in rig rates.

It was 2018 at Kraken and total capex later come in below.
Don’t remember if this was 3 wells at Kraken + DC4.
Rough breakdown and maybe 100-150m was put on Kraken

Hello Hitman, Didn’t those last Kraken wells cost considerable more including drill center?

I guess debt reduction stops around year end.
Then have 400-600m extra FCF to spend on either growth or shareholder returns. That’s on top of 2021 extensive drilling capex. So potential dividend 2023 100-300m I would say.

I would say debt around 550m less year end

Think so too KO, just a neutral update without bad news and this can rocket

KO, the risk now is much less then pre-pandemic 2020.
Less debt
Big hedge in place
Lower production cost

Hi Tarmak,
FCF or cashflow from operations I have around 200m H2. But with GE deal debt is up around 100m to year end 1240m ish.
Now it’s different game 60-70m per month debt reduction!
I agree, 7 wells + Malaysia and Magnus fix will easy mitigate the declines

Impossible for normal shareholder follow this.

My excel says average needs to be 48,5k Nov Dec to hit 45k spot on.
Nov still had problems so I would split it 45/52k.
AB had safety in that short FC and would not like to be close to 45k or risk missing target again full year.
46k full year means Nov Dec need 54k average.
Then can split it 50/58k Nov Dec.

So my assumption is Dec between 52-58k.
It’s very sensitive play with these averages short horizon.

Barclays had 53,8k 2022 and 58k 2023.
Think they got numbers from Enquest.

Midpoint guidance 2022 around 52-53k I would say

If guidance that low oil price will rocket

Hitman, I heard it was 60m this month.
Maybe they putting away 10m for cash dividend!!!

MRC, AB already given FC. FCF will be fantastic if oil reach 40-50 usd!

Can I bring JC?

I am interested if Enq goes to 200GBP with 10 days.
Think I got something left for a coffee also then

Hello L3, I also get 700m FCF weighted average price included hedge 80.
Please note BP don’t get anything from Magnus until end Q1.

What’s your number if it’s not 700m?