Member Info for Pelle

Savemore, hmm I free up 50k now for tomorrow.
I don’t know your wife but I will follow you and buy Enquest right into the start tomorrow

Is it flat from yday now?
Stockholm closed today

Of course there is a reason, and it’s not logistic

Hello Stumpy and Romaron,
I know Enq protected from tax anyway next 4-6 years or something.
But I thought it could have an positive impact on sector today.
Guess it’s like many other news.
Bad news send SP down much more then equal good news.
Enq EV must be at the lowest point over last 6-7 years.
It’s strange not even 100+ oil could lift the EV

Well , maybe it’s not a bad thing. Now dividend rolling in from other oil companies and reinvested at bottom valuations with record oil prices

Can this be a big raise tomorrow?

https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1526627233925894146?s=21&t=OhJNfKj5I279_aDcnKVb2Q

Hello E,
If AB have other plans, he need to keep AGM 19th.
Our flight and hotel is not flexible! Lol

Romaron, yes the other Swedish guy got confirmation on email from IR it’s on Sofitel.

Need to go out look for long overdue new car buy now, Petrobras dividend incoming May,June,July. Lol.
40% dividend yield:-)
Something for AB to live up to there

Thanks to Modestus and others at Swedish discord

Seav, its 51k and 93 usd average including the hedge.
Then i get close to 700m FCF

I have around 700m debt reduction on these oil prices and consider the hedge for this year.
Then they also reach the target end of the year debt/EBITDA 0,5

Hello Jan,
I already placed my bets on OU 19th.
Last years it’s been same day as AGM and AGM is 19th.
Have a nice weekend:-)

Hello Jan,
Hope everything fine with you
Do you still have the Swedish discord?
I would like get in contact with you
BR / Pelle

Hello Romaron,
Only on Financial calendar at Enq page.
But I seen an email from IR confirmed Sofitel St James

Romaron, IR confirmed it’s Sofitel St James

No problem Romaron, we will set up our longhouse in St James’s park.
And it’s nearby the Sofitel war room.
We won’t leave until we got the dividend. Lol

Finally looks like a few Swedes will come.
When do you normally get the invitation letter in post?
I bought some shares today in different account in my name. Otherwise how hard is it? Enough show ownership on mobile?

Anyone will go ?

Romaron, regarding real estate or land it’s been excellent investment last 30 years due to borrow rate coming down from 15% to 1-2%. Guess it’s similar picture in UK.
Now borrowing rate start to increase due to inflation.
Let’s say if it goes to 5%, then price will come down probably 20-40%. And it’s higher food and energy cost also for a household.
Still it will be as expensive for a first time buyer, gets a cheaper price but a higher borrowing rate..
As energy prices are one of the bigger driver of inflation I consider this investment as good hedge against other bad things in future also.

Just my opinion without being an accountant.
EPS it’s effected by the write down or write back etc based on oil price. Specially during last years.
So it’s better look at the FCF.
Let’s assume they balance the debt this year and make 600m FCF next year.
Then a potential split of this FCF could be 1/3 each to
Further debt reduction
Increased Capex / investment
Dividend

Let’s see how generous they will be and what FCF we get 2023. It might get close to 1b if these prices hold.

Hello L7,
Most numbers on marketscreener are rubbish for Enquest.
An average of poorly updated broker/bank estimates.
Like FCF as you mention.
EBITDA is basically one of few figures looking correct at moment. Hope soon more will be updated.
On other companies I believe it’s better updated maybe because they made it simpler with matrix of FCF guidance on different assumptions.

Anyway, my FCF is around 650-700m this year and more next year if oil hold 100+ as bad hedging ends Q1 2023. Production similar and bit less financial cost also.

I see on marketscreener EBITDA estimate 2022 updated to 1286m. It’s roughly inline with my excel sheet.
EV now around 1,9b.

How cheap isn’t that at EV/EBITDA multiple 1.5.
Think we been around double before over the year.
Bigger American companies around 6-8 multiple.

Let’s say we can reach 3 again end year.
It would indicate a SP of 120p year end !!!!

Dumbly, PBR is maybe 20% dividend backwards but new strategic plan 2022-26 will distribute 60% of FCF and it will be around 30-40% yield.
Think a buy in Enq today should also do 30-40% in 1-2 years

Romaron: One thing my research did do was confirm what a great company EnQuest are but what a miserable sod AB is when it comes to promoting us.

Your late…. Me and others highlighed this during long time and then you defended AB. Saying they not target retail investors anyway.

Anyway I bought many Enq today, think it should double in 1 year and AB finally changed the tune towards shareholders!