Member Info for Pelle

Romaron, it’s Conrad at discord

Looking at Barclays analyse 2021 each 10 usd lift in oil price assumptions should increase NAV around 20p

Up to everyone if use below numbers from Enquest and their NAV of 520m as a valuation.
But I would easy lift those assumptions in my valuation 20 usd so 40p extra on SP.
And booking of profits H1 probably another 10p

Then NAV is more like 80-90p
And that’s why AB is buying

Hello Jan,
Where do you see they value assets on balance sheet based on last year oil price?
P36 top there more oil price assumptions both what they used in 2021 forward and 2022 forward

Think I found it p15 base case 2022 75 usd and 2023 70 usd.

I think a buyer of Enq will make there own assumptions regardless of Enq decide to stick to 75/70 oil over next report or increase the assumption.

Hello Jan or someone else maybe knows.
What oil price assumptions did they use to come up with Total Equity (NAV) 520m in last report?
If I remember correctly it was very low ball.

Anyone know what page I find this oil price assumptions used ?

Good morning Jan
Seems like you had nice AGM.

About valuations ( I am not expert but will try)
The 500m you talk about is Total equity I think.
NAV we don’t have from Enquest but the Barclays analyse from July 21 had NAV 80p at 80 oil.
Since then things changed
Production slightly lower.
Cost slightly higher
Oil prices much higher
And we got the tax also reducing FCF 10%
Barclays had FCF 700-800m for 80 oil resulted in NAV 80p.
With oil price at 100+ we will reach similar FCF including changes, tax etc.
So NAV should be around 70-90p today.

I follow Africa Oil also.
Mcap around Equity
NAV they present each quarter and it’s around 3 times Mcap and with 80 oil.

To me it looks like Enq and Africa same cheap.
And it’s just getting cheaper quarter by quarter if you follow Mcap/NAV

Maybe you can follow up the discussion with Enquest

https://africaoilcorp.com/site/assets/files/1751/africa_oil_q122_presentation_rev_3.pdf

KO, did they say anything about maintaining rolling hedge?

Romaron, this with valuations. Was it any of Swedish ppl?

Hello Romaron,
Thanks for your AGM feedback
One on discord got that Kraken premium 2-5 usd and sometimes 7 usd. Not clear what period.
The big premium come when war started

https://shipandbunker.com/prices/av/global/av-g20-global-20-ports-average

Are you there KO? Anything to report back?

Hello E, as far as I remember the May update didn’t include net debt

Lol, backdated net debt

Lol Jan:-)
Can you bring a t-shirt for AB also with print 60p party.

Hello Romaron,
Luckily I am better with numbers.
Languages never been my strength

Tigar , GE for 17 usd a barrel at 50 oil.
Enq have around 200m barrels and at 17 low valuation it’s EV 3,4b but EV just 1,5b now.
It’s completely insane
Don’t understand how oil shares could become so cheap in an energy crisis

MRC, dont know CNE exact numbers but I don’t think it’s good deal for Enq shareholders get debt free instantly with their CNE money but only holding 50% of the new company.
When Enq so close to repay the debt on their own

MRC, its a different value selling complete Enq with FCF , assets, projects and tax credits to another oil company.

We will see

Hello Jan,
We completely aligned here.
Maybe you can confirm it with AB also on Friday:-)

MRC, yes he hold only 11%.
But if board gets an offer for let’s say 60p today and AB think that’s fine and board and maybe some other bigger shareholders agrees.
Then board will recommend everyone to take the offer.
And it will go through

Auson, you mean AB to cash in within some years?
I think so to.
11% in Enquest is not something you leave for the kids.
And it’s hard sell 11% only.
Guess he would cash out maximum value selling the company in this up cycle