Member Info for Pelle

Hello Romaron
PE probably even closer toward 1 based on H1x2.
CNE is probably low due to the deals.

AB really needs to do something about this.
Now we can’t explain the low valuation with huge debt anymore.

Ukbbbb,
Imagine EV year end around 1,2b if SP don’t go up.
And EBITDA around 1,2b
That’s rather cheap. Lol

This SP should have been 2-3 times higher already before this tax and knocking of 150-200m Mcap

Nice Jan,
Just missing BP and Petronas production share around 7k this year.
It’s just to take a long nice summer vacation and view the results in September for H1.
Or we will get an RNS before that HYB is refinanced.

Rich,
I only used the cost from some of the banks I saw 70-100m year.
I am only calculating FCF and not profits.
It sounds like crazy numbers compared to EV and Mcap etc. But there other oilers with similar numbers also.
You will see in September at H1 report.
Or have a look at update in March with Jan-Feb numbers already released

RTN, this company have never done plastering on front page presentations and will not do it.
Do you know the FCF they did in Jan-Feb with lower oil price and more hedging holding back?
And I allowed 56m for the new tax this year.
Will reach below 600m end year !

RTN, net debt will only be 5-600m year end with oil 100+.
Enquest target is debt/EBITDA 0,5 and that fits with my calculations.
Then Enquest will slow down debt reduction

Try email

Group@partygate.uk

Today from Swedish FT on the oil power plant. Lol

The alarm: "Very serious" mode for the power supply

The situation for the electricity supply in southern Sweden is very serious, which contributes to continued sky-high electricity prices and a lack of ability to handle major disturbances. Political action is now required. That is the opinion of Henrik Svensson, CEO of the oil-fired reserve power plant in Karlshamn, which continues to run far more than normal.

Where you get 22m from ?

https://twitter.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1530886206619271168?s=21&t=n2aw5NHWLbSuQFlNRjV8yA

It’s always the same with Ammu, when something happens and SP drops he is looking for buying himself as cheap as possible.
Think we already passed the bottom yday as it stabilised and climbed little towards end of the day.
It was probably correct drop the Mcap 150m but not from that cheap level it’s been trading already.
With these oil prices Mcap should have 2-3 times more then it was prior this windfall tax.
Hope AB push for getting some estimates out from banks or Moodys soon.

Hi Uk bbbb
Yes, usd end May.
Prod 51k
BP and Petronas share 4,9k
Oil price sold include hedge 88
Then I get around 270-280m
We already know Jan-Feb was 120-130m dont remember exactly.
Could also make it easier
Jan-Feb average 65m FCF x 5 = 325m
And there was a bond payment of 30m in April.
And BP should also get around 30m April - May for the cash flow sharing. So end up with roughly same numbers.
Maybe you remember Enq payed of 80m BP vendor loan in November. Then Enq didn’t need share cashflow up until around end Q1 until Enq got the 80m back.

Good morning Jan,
I hope your not Enquest deal maker telling the buyer let’s split the price you get 50% discount. Lol

Did some calculations today.
Mcap from January up around 240m and debt down around 275m so we managed reduce EV during a time oil gone from 80 to 120 usd and production around 16m barrels/year net. That 640m increased FCF once hedges comes off.
We also got a negative news with the tax that might cost 50-100m / year.
EBITDA 2022 should come at 1,2-1,3b and Mcap now 700m with debt under control and melting away.
RBL should be close to 0 in 2 months and hopefully they can then borrow on it and pay of the HYB 825m.

What was AB last words? something like … This is start of new chapter there shareholders will be rewarded.

780m is for 2023 and hedge considering Q1 next year

ZFG, I also see this as possibility that Enq will be bought out.

Anyway I updated my calculations and see 780m FCF and that’s after 100m tax.
Based on 110 oil and no Kraken premium.
So there more upside as oil 120 and Kraken premium 10% +.
Debt going down fast.

And there possibility this tax is changed for better also.
This really also puts oil companies in spotlight and calculations and valuations will be reviewed and a FCF yield of 100% will come out as insanely cheap

What you guys think of Enq being bought out?
Let’s say premium 100% equal 1400m
Debt soon 800-900m.
So price around 2x EBITDA on EV.
Get the 3b tax cuts worth 1,2b.

Think I read somewhere Harbour running out of tax cuts. Any other suitable buyer ?

Jan, oil close to 120 now.
This looks ridiculous cheep.
Now Mcap back to pre covid.
FCF about double vs pre corona estimate even with new tax.
Debt down around 500m since then.

I also added around 400k shares.
Mcap 700m now and end year debt around 600m
EBITBA will be around 1200-1300m
Lol, Thats cheap

Hello Jan, yeah I also hope Enq comes with RNS.
Would be good if they even give an FCF estimate.
Valuation before this with FCF at 700m and running out of debt was already very low.
And if it’s 650m FCF it’s even lower valuation

I will invoice Enquest tomorrow for my dividend.
Then they can book it as capex