Member Info for Pelle

HMH, I found a note in RI prospect about the 3b tax credit.
Enq estimated them to be used up around 2025 if I remember correct.
Seems fair

Hello MHM

I am having Kraken load 75 as significant milestone.
GKB is now working on the date for it:-)

Yeah, wish I could buy more but already filled my boots and more then that.

KO, more then fishy this

Its completely crazy, no news or reflection in SP for Enq since half year
Assuming 20k improvment = 14k net for Enq
It improves FCF Enq 200-300 mill/year (can put a multiple on it aslo to get value of it)

Should have double or tripple SP on this performance since early spring
And debt is down around 300 mill during the year

mikekim DBS restarted coverage on Armada.
Strong buy call with 0.60 target.
Key paragraphs below.
—-

Kraken back on track: BAB’s Floating Production, Storage and Offloading FPSO segment improved in 1HFY19 due to the resolution of issues regarding its Kraken FPSO vessel which operates in the North Sea with extremely harsh conditions. There were unidentifiable issues previously. BAB sent a senior staff to oversee the vessel for 3 months and spotted operational and technical inefficiencies. BAB decided to replace 5 of its technical leads in 2QFY19 which improved profits by 34% q-o-q. Kraken’s earnings are expected to improve marginally in 3QFY19. There are no operational problems so far for BAB’s remaining vessels and everything is running according to plan.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5210.jsp

Didn’t get the point of relevance between
learning new language and how many is already in English lexicon.
I would argue the other way

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_words_of_Swedish_origin

Swedish:-)

Maybe add it your 2020 goal.
Learn new language:-)

Talk about shrinking!
2b can be produced

https://www.di.se/live/irans-oljefynd-klart-mindre-an-rapporterat/

Good morning KO
About same monstrous level as Enq FCF 2020
50 billion pence

L3/GKb, if I am right I expect you to pick up the bill at 60p party of the accumulated penalties

Hello HMH,
Yes growth with a price tag, did you check this document epip linked from CMD?
Kraken declines heavily 2 years after peak.
What will be yearly capex price to keep production flat until 2025?

Pretty amazing also they managed to bring us from 20/30k to this point and through these low oil prices.
Yes they did ask for money twice but as limited as possible, thats the benefit of having CEO with large holding.

I think your valuation model will make GKB’s eyes popping out!
10 sek is peanuts anyway compared to millions and billions usd:-)

Hi Romaron
Thank you for kind words, I agree EBITDA is not good to use for Enq as several posts comes of before you have the final FCF.
So today I thought about EV/FCF.
I checked some swedish mature oil companies 2020 figures on marketscreener for IPC and Tethys.
They bit smaller but less debt so its bit plus minus =0
I get the multiple of around 4 for next year.
Enq is in that area also with 2000 mill/500 mill conservative FCF with 60 oil 2020
So conservative we should then increase SP approx 100% next year
If oil price goes to 70 and we do approx 750 mill FCF
Then I get EV= 3b and next year end debt 2020 around 750 mill so its marketcap of 2250 mill compared to 400 mill today.
Then we talking about 100p. So to me it looks likely with 60p party if oil avarage around 65.

I think aslo once Enq confirms 2020 guidance (production up and capex/opex down) this SP will lift.
Last year we got production guidance next year in "this" update Dec
And Capex/opex they confirmed in February update

Hello HMH

And yday we talked about valuation and you said you dont care about it.
So you would buy enq at 100 or 200 p today also? Guess not so it does matter.
And against odds that AB is not generous with dividend we are here to increase valuation of our investment in couple of years. So what would be a fair value in 2-3 years without dividend?

So I still think its a relevant question.

And I would like to add one more thing to my list of things we could not forsee.
I honestly think AB downplayed guidance and analysts/media this year.
This allowed him buy huge amount of shares very cheap

Hello HmH

I am doing ok after spending probably hundreds of hours last years reading enq reports.
Build my own FCF model first time by my own about 3 years ago, in fact when I saw your I thought you copied me:-)
Knowing too many numbers up and down in brain now is bit too much, probably in next years I hope focus on building something new.

I got in bit early in Enq but doing ok, there been several things last years that didnt play out well and if 1 or 2 of these went different you would never be able buy at these levels this year.
These things was not printed in balance sheet
-oil recovery taken long time and Trump doing his best keep it low
-missed hedging last autumn
-Kraken delays

No we finally out of the woods as you say ( I very much agree), you and AB done your home work with numbers too.
And our FCF assumptions for next year is almost identical, except you put bit higher production.

For me its time get less busy here and look forward to 60p party of course

Evening E
Lol.. green neighbour, guess they heard about this shale how fantastic it is and bought an option for play there.
Time to hand it over to someone else.

I like the word Nil and shale:-)
And it wont be easy come back for them even if oil increase 10-20 usd, debt will be needed to be priotized before growth.

Hello HMH

I was trying to joke a little bit with you on timeline, no problem as I already started buy here 3-4 years ago and increase a lot last last months and with RI.
As forest owner 12-18 months its like F1 here.

I agree I could learn accounting better but usually dont get into it for investment decision.
First time here I am so deep into numbers
I pick up on low valuation/trends and where good insiders or familys invest because someone already done the job with the numbers or deeper then that.

And why would I pay 500 usd / year ? Job is already done:-)
Lets wait now

I read this morning this.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-equinor-usa-divestiture-repsol/equinor-sells-its-assets-at-u-s-eagle-ford-to-repsol-for-325-million-idUSKBN1XH2S9

Hello HMH
Every month we hear sit back 12-18 months,we need some substance:-)

Have you looked at any other valuation model for Enq without dividend?
Enterprice value compared to other companies maybe?
Or other valuation model?
I see on marketscreener page EV/EBITDA we around same valuation as Tethys multiple of 2.
I once before calculated the EV value backwards for the last years and we were stable around 2,5b for long time but last 1-2 years all the debt reduction have been eaten up by reduced reduced EV.
Ofcourse our multiple was way higher before with growth in pipeline but what could be a fair multiple today?

Asuming 1b EBITDA forward and debt reduction of 500-700 mill 2020 at some point this marketcap must increase with approx same amount as debt reduction or?

Anyone know the time CMD ?