Member Info for Pelle

Looks like NO moving now, but no destination update

Thanks Romaron, I see your point.
I am just bored out waiting for someone have a go on 2020 numbers.
Just can’t believe how 1b EBITDA company in turnaround position can be so uninteresting in the market.

KO, so it seems it’s no child’s play for this guy?
As you said the other day

https://www.sightline.org/2019/02/11/fracking-financial-depreciation-dodge/

Post from Swedish forum

Hi Romaron
If I may say something
Steeper- I would say easier
2018-we could not make scheduled payments and had to do OZ deal
2019-we just managed to make the scheduled payments without using to much cash on hand.
2020-FCF will be 500-700 mill if things stay normal. So to beat down the RCF will be much easier and you have safety time until end 2021.

By end of summer 2020 RCF should be very low, maybe they keep a symbolic sum on it as if I understand it correct its linked to extend the bonds also.

Moodys made a very good analyse of Enq in last autumn 2018 , and said we should be fine 2019 if oil average 65.
They are the only ones that come to this correct conclusion.
So I am really looking forward to next Moodys update, that might be the spark on SP we need.

How about hand out Enquest flyers outside London stock exchange?
With big fat FCF 2020 estimate printed on the back:-)

Have you seen this bottom graph?
To me it looks like its just to sit and wait for positive update from analyst with higher SP target.

https://www.marketscreener.com/ENQUEST-PLC-6098532/consensus/

Hello E

I dont want to sit and complain, but to follow up on the analyst who ask the question "tackle near term debt maturities".
In my opinion the risk in Enq have made transformational change during the last half year to the better.
In Aug/Sept I bought around 400k additional shares as I thought the last amortisation in Sept 2019 and March 2020 is home safe with oil price around 60 usd and conservative prod.

I think AB misses is an easy way explain, the financial stress are behind us and now its more a transport road basically without scheduled amortisations to get down to 1b.

When an analyst ask such a question at end, then I think what should have been the big messege with this CMD failed.
And we also saw no reaction in SP or even slighly down.
Basically no comments yet. (except one stupid)
The feeling is almost like this CMD didnt happen

Sorry for being bit frustrated long term shareholder :-)

Thanks Chilting,
One error, the Fact chairman of board... remove ‘not’ when you read it

Under one graph they say if 2,8 sek goes through it might very well go to 5-6 sek

Chilting, please copy in second part also

Easy KO - Buy!
Google translate don’t work?
I can translate some points after work or maybe HMH can help

Hi Squif,
Yes the 100 mill we paid in cash for 75% to Bp come back to Enq first hand during this year and after that 50/50.
All in all I get Enq got a bit more FCF first 9 months this year then in future.
Just slightly more

It’s all to complex everything, not only Magnus deal but also production without guidance.

In my opinion they should have tried simply flying everything and said something like with this base we can maintain 65-70k production with 200 mill mill capex over next 3 years.
Or with current oil price we can be at our low end target debt /EBITDA ratio 1 within 1 year.

Now everything is still vague and analysts will still not bother put everything together until Enq give production end capex guidance.

Hi Squif
I am trying simple
25% vendor loan payed of and now FCF goes to Enq
75% still have 80-100 mill vendor loan left with payment over 5 years
And FCF split 50/50

So total FCF
Bp gets 37,5% + 25 mill including interest
Enq gets rest

Yes there is a cap of 1b to bp, don’t know exactly what’s left 700-800mill?
So it’s maybe another 5-6 years more payments to bp but after that Enq get all.
100-150 mill extra if they keep production up.

I would also be interested in the Kraken leasing, how many years left on it?
It’s also a big amount money additional 5-7 years down the road

Forget about Lundin,
Not sure about the NAV if it’s on two different companies level or.
Some expert here can maybe explain

Jan, I am not sure it’s so simple as NAV.
Lundin petroleum have had a negative NAV for several years

Looks like most of us long term “bigger”shareholders feels exactly the same.

Agree Mavrick and Squif
I was hoping for a change at this event that take place every 4-5 years.

Hi Romaron, it’s all going well but it’s lack of future projection missing in my opinion.
Analysts think we already reached peak of growth this year.
We struggle to compute prod remaining 2019 and 2020 and so do analysts

Look at Lundin for example, picture production growth .
I can mention also that Lundin made a promise like 2-3 years ahead that if oil prices remained around 60 we will distribute x amount money year x.

Enq is not so investor friendly in my opinion

https://www.lundin-petroleum.com/investors/

Hi KO,
Doubt AB would let Enq go for even 60p so it would be to big deal for Rockrose.
Enq is much bigger body and could maybe do a take over of such company at a smaller premium.

Empty it on cash and continue developing the fields.

I get Enq FCF Oct to March around 250 mill
Approx 150 will need to go RCF and OZ
So 100 mill is really free.
And after this basically all cashflow is really free.
Thinking about it, it might happen
something like this

Rockrose, Enq could buy such company empty it on cash and continue run the fields.

Don’t know details but it’s a possibility