Member Info for Pelle

Manipulation!

Hi Romaron

Its easy , just go that page and scroll down to second table Debt/EBITDA 2019 for BP is 1,34.
Enquest will be about 1,5.
I been complaining about the analyst updates on this factset consensus for Enq.
They obviosly not following us and update projection, or at least limited interest

Sheet Consensus and Revisions is also interesting

Romaron

We not far behind BP on Debt/EBITDA.
I see they also use half EBITDA on capex

https://www.marketscreener.com/BP-PLC-9590188/financials/

Mavrick, yeah everyone have different strategies. Mine is get my 25p back at dividend over next 3-4 years.
Would certainly not sell out now when the big FCF finally coming through since October.

Thanks to qurik at swedish forum

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qcEN0K8VseI

AB needs schedule CMD-update before Christmas!
3 simple slides
Nov Kraken 53k
FCF 50 mill/month
Production guidance 75-80k

AB should have given guidance at CMD and we would not be this low at least.
Now he will continue buy shares over next months

Haha, and yday he said if they don’t sign before 15 Dec we increase tariffs

Plethorus, assuming current oil price 2020 they should reduce debt 600 mill + 200 mill on Magnus and leasing.
That must be reflected in the SP through out the year.
I think re-rate starts in Q1, either moodys update or next operational update in February with guidance.
Latest March on full year results

Take my hat of to those who manage keep a flat SP for 9 month while major operational things happen.
Kraken,Magnus,Malaysia,FCF
While a CEO loading up millions and millions of shares

Squif, I used the 2b/600 mill.
No worries about Magnus provision or leasing. They will go down also

Squif
Looking at this EOG she mention cheap.
75% of the EBITDA goes to capex to maintain small growth.
I think EV/FCF is more interesting
EOG ratio 30
ENQ ratio 3,5

Similar figures to Pioneer

If they think these americans are cheap, what is Enq then?
AB: Now please pay down RCF and bonds PIK over next 8-10 months and install a small dividend!

Good morning Romaron
I guess your paying for this FT site, what does it say under Forecasts?

I was also think who are these analysts, does AB give them bit hard time now because they were hard on him the years before?
Clearly analysts have not worked out a double FCF next year on same oil prices.
Then they would be all over it.

Guess only risk now is 50 oil for two straight years, then we make the RFC schedule until 2021 but not much more.
But how likely is that? Extremely low in my opinion

Looking at this Pioneer in US. at marketscreener 2020 estimates
EV: 23b
EBITDA: 4b
FCF: 0,63b
So EV/FCF = 36

Enquest EV/FCF = 3,5

Thats bisaar

Squif,
I think we covered all theories, its all very strange
At next AGM debt can be around 1250 mill if oil stay above 60.
Then SP needs to be around 30p or the ratio is even lower.

Can be interesting meeting if still no shareholder value increase.

Hi Hitman
Starting year at 80k and assuming 1 month maitenance each field gives 73k average.
One month maintenance is bit too much so maybe average is 75k.

Another way
Kraken average so far this year net 24k potential net next year 31k at 45k speed
So its an 7k lift on the total average this year so it also indicate 75k if everything else balance out witch I think.

Range should be 70-80k safely

Good morning Beerbull and Squif
And this ev/EBITDA going towards 1,2 something end next year.
I think enquest will bounce hard either at Feb update or full year results.
This is simply forgotten and market have not figured out that double up in FCF 2020.

If oil stays in this area over next two months and Kraken continue, I will also make a final buy here

Yeah, its amazing November!
3 tankers in 30 days and I get maybe 52k, I could never imagine this.
Enq total prod Nov must be around 80k even with the shortfall of Heather and Thistle.

And debt reducing 50mill/month while the rest of world struggle with the low oil prices.
Enq have de-risked a lot last half year and will continue with it.
It must be hard find a better turnaround case over next years.

Have a nice weekend all

Hi Hitman
I dont see why talk about mid 2022?
Then we will be more then debt free if things stay normal.
And thay said they want debt down to 1b only as lowest.
Even if AB want to make some deal, it will be a deal that generate cash first day.

My bet is Q3/Q4 2020 and 25 or 50 mill each quarter and more 2021
Think GKB starts see the vision now also

What happen to this world? Romaron checking daily trades!