Member Info for Pelle

Hi L7
The 2020/21 estimates at marketscreener have basically not changed during this year.
Its first now the last 1-2 weeks I seen changes at 2019 numbers.
I also think latest with next guidance the picture needs to change.
Does the analyst check montly OGA numbers after release?
Guess 80k Oct will be big surpise for many, specially those with 63k assumption

Hi Hitman
50 mill negative capital movement also this year.
My file says 575 mill at 72,5k average and 63 oil.

To hit 75k average I think we need 80k+ in start of the year.
Therapist and L7 calculations on Oct production indicates we there.

Hi GKB,
Yes, production should increase next year, higher average prod at Kraken,Magnus,Malaysia.
And maybe 2021 flat.
Its a bit gamble for us project so 3-5 years, what can they do with 200-250 mill capex/year?
Increase 5-10k? Stay flat ? or declines?
Only Enq knows this, and I think its a big part of the low SP also.

Hi Squif
Yes, something holding the SP and it will give after sooner or later.
Imagine we can be debt free in 2,5 years.
I think EV valuation should be pushed up a fair bit also with the double FCF next year.
So assuming 500% + SP lift over next 2,5 years. I would guess most of this increase to come in the first year or so.
Not the last year.
At some point more and more people will consider this a safe bet.
My point was Aug/Sept to buy additional shares, then I saw that even with 60 oil until March 2020 there was margins to easy make the last "tight" scheduled amortisation.
Since Aug/Sept both oil price and production been bit better then my estimates and the amortisation will probably be done by end of this year.

I have noticed several updates last week on 2019 numbers. Now debt and FCF looks more up to date.
So its positive sign, because its been stagnant for basically 9 months.
Lets hope they start look into next two years also.
More SP targets updates like RBC will come over next 3-4 months

https://www.marketscreener.com/ENQUEST-PLC-6098532/financials/

Here is article I think Heardy mention about PMO
I would not be surprised if something going on in Enq also in background.
Doesnt need to be specificly linked to Enq, but more like a market hedge.
Enq must be one of candidates for best operational improvements this year and best outlook 2020 but worst SP performance.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7767747/Premier-Oil-target-record-132m-short-bet-Hong-Kong-hedge-fund.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

L3, I think you and L7 will catch up in predictions on 2020 also.
Just like last half year.
and if production now 80k + in oct. It will do even better then my estimates.

https://youtu.be/0Qe4px0oI8g

L7, I have similar trend. Bit higher in front and lower in end.
Guess you revised your FCF now 2019 and 2020

Jesus, L3. Are you AB?
History, average,details.. but no conclusion where we going.
Put it simple and include details below or something

Squif, I am not into UK politics but I liked GKB description of corbyn. Says it all!
Think Venezuela with less sunshine.
Our ex prime minister Carl Bildt didnt like Boris Jeltsin, sorry Johnson .
Carl said about Boris in 2016, I wish it was a joke!

Its all become a joke international with politics, we have an prime minister now who is educated welder.
We pay 30+30+ % tax on income and we get less and less service slowly each year.
Ex CEO Leif Östling Scania chalange it, and said What do I get for the money? Not much!

Jesus E, the dark side recruited you:-) ? Analysts
I think that is whats killing this investment case a bit, a lack of guidance.
We could not even get last two months, and in Feb/March we get a range for 2020.
In my opinion its not even enough with 1 year horizon to build a investment case .
Because most will assume production will fall after that just like the analyst predict peak year we just passed 2019.

I am sure AB wants to conntinue growth at slower level next 3 years. Not decline!
Or stay flat at current high level production.
Why not build case around this at CMD more clearly, we want to be here in 2023 with x amount yearly capex.

Neil, you have weather update?
Remember you always said it was rough in Sept/Oct.
That might also have changed to the better

Hi Tom,
My head is too tired now for read those laws specially in english, but I saw something about 90% there.
What I learned or belived in Sweden is that a 10% holding can block a complete take over.
And bider often says this is the deal if we get more then 90% acceptance.

400 mill Mcap with 600 mill FCF and 3b tax free profits.
Sounds like a few out there could be interested, dont think even 60p would be enough.
Several of my holding before not in oil sector but undervalued for longtime ,FCF and unappriciated by market ended up with take over. No one was as extreme as this.

Evening E, I doubt shalers can react that fast and with a montain of debt they will still need to prioritize debt.
And each year passing I would assume the drill prospects gets worse and worse.
Its my general feeling or hope about it, but I know your much more in detail on it.

Whats your take on production now Nov/Dec and year end debt?
And FCF 2020?

And a Trade deal, are we at 75-80 usd then?

Delek, was it the Israel? You heard something?
I also think AB increased to 10%+ to be in control

Hitman, you mean somehow they manage keep it low and building a position?

oh yes, London is 1 hour behind

up 2% in stockholm and trades every second minute.