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have produced a broker note on ATM, late October. Their fair value target is 7p/sh based on the economics from both phase 1 and 2 projects - near term cash flow shd see the price start to revalue from here, but they don't see 7p until the larger cash flows from phase 2 emerge. They don't see full project construction until late 2022, after initial plant commissioning (??) and a full feasibility study. Maybe earlier if ATM fast-track it. capital requirement for phase 2 c. $60m with interest rate @ 8%ish. Unrisked fair value is closer to 16p and they admit the fair value target is conservative, but is also based on a tin price of $21000. Also, no additional potential revenues from by-products. Their NPV calculation also conservative @ $149m. Good note overall but doesn't seem to have the set mining buy-side on fire. What is really needed is some progress on cashflows - this market really isn't interested in blue-sky DCF estimates..PD

I'm doing my best... :)
Time to upgrade my position here me thinks, momentum turning +ve..
PD

NPV of future cash flows, standard way of giving a current value to the long term earnings stream. Should be much higher than present mkt cap is pricing in.

disappointing year for ATM, so far, despite plenty of +ve news and a significant de-risking of the investment story. This could change, but i don't sense that the market is that interested in ATM. The SP can't sustain any momentum, volumes are at record lows. I don't believe this is do with the funding question, AV has already made it clear this will be a debt solution. Not sure what will be the catalyst and still feel ultimately, this company will go private. Too much return to be made at these financing costs, and the market isn't valuing the cashflows at anything like a reasonable level. PD.

Not great for Barrick but hoping final line also means AEX VAT issue also gets resolved:
Barrick Gold – settles with Tanzania for $300m, a 16% free-carried interest in each of the Barrick-Acacia’s Tanzanian gold mines and a 50:50 profit sharing agreement
Shanta Gold – Tanzanian tax settlement may enable Revenue Authority to repay VAT owed to Shanta Gold
• Barrick Gold report the settlement of their long-running tax dispute with the Tanzanian Government.
• The deal involves the payment of $300m and the creation of Twiga Minerals which will share future economic benefits from the mines on a 50:50 basis.
• Barrick took over the management of the mines after its buy-out of the Acacia minorities last month enabling better renegotiation with the government and the re-opening of the North Mara gold mine in the north of Tanzania.
• Tanzania will receive its half of the economic benefits in taxes, royalties, clearing fees and participation in all cash distributions made by the mines and by Twiga Minerals.
Conclusion: This is a good deal for Tanzania as it looks as if it gives the nation much more upside to higher production and gold prices than previously seen.
While the deal resolves the dispute it comes at a heavy cost for Barrick which now has to share half of all economic benefits from the mines with the government.
The extra cash may help the Tanzanian Revenue Authority to repay VAT owing to other miners in the country such as Shanta Gold.

Excellent news for all involved, esp patient long termers, charts look like they have big potential upside from here. GLA..

To me, the elephant in the room during the interview was the current SP/valuation of the company. Despite executing so well, and with a recent pick-up in SN prices, the stock remains seriously undervalued. I thought the interviewer tip-toed around this issue and shd have asked AV straight what he thought of it. You could almost sense his frustation. Proper valuation for a miner with annual revs of $100m and a resource capable of sustaining that for decades...??

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/902760/afritin-mining-s-tin-resource-at-uis-project--one-of-the-biggest-in-the-world--902760.html
'& Bob's your uncle..!'
targetting $100m revenues, phase 2 bigger than expected..

Maybe related to Indonesia bringing forward it's ban on nickel exports by two years, metal at 5 year high, also used in solder and batteries. Suggestion other Asian metal producers may prohibit exports of other metals, plus Chinese buying coming in early ahead of the ban..

Been pretty disappointed with the share price reaction to solid execution from ATM this year. Absent the JORC number, they have been good to their word. IMO this isn’t going unnoticed and I wouldn’t be surprised if this ultimately leads to the company going private. The MC spread to true value is just too large to ignore. PD.

On the Proactive interview, JB mentions that moving down the listing regime scale improves the cost of raising capital. To me, this is rubbish, and the London Stock exchange website also suggests that companies with premium listings, which have greater transparency and enjoy greater investor confidence, can raise capital more cheaply. Yet more incorrect uttering from our CEO, on a public forum. It does suggest more corporate activity of some sort is planned, with less scrutiny/approval from existing shareholders. Shareholder rights and governance levels are weakened. It also means AEX won’t have to follow listing rules on significant and related party transactions. I understand that AEX has to send a circular to shareholders to inform them of the reasons for the change in listing and needs >75% approval.

Thanks GL, hadn't seen this.
As articles go, it reflects more on JB's ego than being an accurate update on what's going on at AEX.
KN1 isn't producing 15mmmcfd of gas a day, Ntorya isn't due to produce anything, anytime soon, 'capital velocity for a company of our size is too slow for the speed we are going'.. WTF, are you kidding..? What speed, on any aspect of our current operations..?
Pure vanity, no substance, weak on accuracy.
Sums up Bhattacherjee to a tee..

Thanks for posting LD

Furthermore..

'There is clearly a lot going on already from the management team at Solo and the key phrase in their mission statement is probably ‘achieving near-term commercial outcomes to generate value for our shareholders’. They have an strong view that they want shareholders to have confidence in the board and they will reward that confidence. For what its worth I think that this management team is pound for pound one of the most experienced and smart technically and operationally in the sector and it would be a considerable surprise it it did not deliver. Financially they aim to have a self-funding balance sheet, capital efficiency to make good quality transactions with well defined upside and with sparing use of internal funds. If it delivers the ‘full cycle production, development and modest exploration vehicle’ it is intent on then I will not be surprised.'

Again, hearing all of this third hand. Not sure he could possibly have such a glowing opinion of our board..well, at least our excuse for a CEO..

'We talked at some length about Tanzania and the way to unlock value as it remains without doubt a core asset and one which has significant potential in its own right. In this regard it is obvious that general discussions have taken place with Aminex and given that both ‘new’ Chairmen have a BP background some discussions may well have taken place which seems an eminently wise thing to do. The team is not being idle on this asset and are working hard with its partners to create value, ‘certainly not taking their eye off the ball’ so to speak. My feeling with regard to this is that the management want to make a success of it but would be equally as happy if the work on the rest of the portfolio on its own merit downsized the scale of Tanzania as a proportion of the whole.'

These interviews cost us money, something we have very little of. JB, if you're going to p*ss our cash up the wall on some wasteful PR, here's a tip - have a point. Yeah, we know samples have been sent for analysis, THREE months ago. Why no report on the results? If it was in everyone's interest to approve the farm out, or get Kiliwani producing again, which you repeat ad nauseam, why isn't it happening? Clearly it's not in everyone's current interest - get a clue. You're a man who speaks but doesn't inform. In which case, save our cash until you have some information you haven't already drifted out through your crap RNSs. This useless interview costs us bucks and wipes another mill off the market cap - genius!

Totally agree Seawolf, point I have been making for over a year now. It seems inconceivable to me that this hasn't been explained properly to shareholders, and yet so little pressure from vested interests for full disclosure. It stinks. More than anything, this is responsible for the SP decline over the last 18 months. WTF is going on with this well? As things stand, you can only summise that it won't produce again. That's what the SP is telling you. But surely it can't take this long to ascertain that fact. Total disgrace.

They remain 'optimistic' - great...

AMINEX+ (AEX, 1.25p, House Stock) – Ruvuma farm-out update. Aminex has released an update on its previously announced farm-out at Ruvuma in Tanzania, announcing that all parties have agreed an extension to the longstop date to 31 July 2019. The company reports that it and APT have made good progress on closing out the outstanding conditions precedent, including joint venture partner approvals. Aminex and APT are actively engaged with the Tanzanian authorities to satisfy the remaining conditions (in particular extension of the Mtwara licence and government approval of the transfer of the interest/operatorship) as soon as possible. Ahead of the satisfaction of these conditions, Aminex reports that it and APT have had positive meetings with the government and we are therefore optimistic that the transaction can be completed in a timely manner. Our last published Risked NAV estimate for Aminex stands at 4.8p/share, reflecting the improved risk profile that we expect to result from the farm-out deal, which will see the company carried through a material work programme and straight into production at the flagship Ruvuma project.

Mather - I understand that their hands are largely tied here, but a more competent CEO would/should go beyond the abbreviated, banal RNS's that we are now subject to, and inform shareholders of what is going on, in more detail. Especially KN1 which has been an absolute f*ck up for the last 18 months and yet we still don't know anything about the flow/data analysis which started months ago. I can live with the sensitivity around the farmout deliberations, but our own well, and what they are doing to restore production - totally unforgivable and on its own, grounds for JB to be thrown under the bus, IMO.

I see CF are a 5% shareholder in ATM, with the problems the fund is having and it offloading entire stakes in a number of small cap stocks to meet redemptions, there might be some fallout for ATM if they have/choose to trim to manage the position size in the fund. I see they sold c. 8m shares in Jan but they still hold 27m. Might be some short term bargains in the next few weeks..