Member Info for pekingduck

Ojt, I think your numbers are realistic & attainable. 2 main issues right now are our v low production rates relative to what the plant shd be capable of (c . 20% recovery according to last update) and a market which has v little interest in this sector with investors feasting on mega cap tech and Covid beneficiaries. Both can and will change at some point, the best news we can get right now is a big jump in recovery rates and frequent, target level monthly shipments. Without cash flow the next 3 stages of phase 1 just won’t happen soon, and the market knows it.
There have been approaches to buy the company and these have been rejected so far, but I agree, there’s a threat to it happening at a big discount to our long term value if things don’t start to accelerate from here.
Throwing shares at research houses to improve our profile only goes so far if you don’t back it up with getting back to target production, and we’re a long way behind where that should be right now..

If Henrik is cool about things, who am i to know any better? Can't imagine it's like that at AEX HQ though - more like the air traffic control tower in Airplane, with Lloyd Bridges as Ambrose, 'looks like i picked the wrong week to give up amphetamines...' ..!

Those are PRODUCTION costs per tonne, relative to the spot price of c. $17,000 around now. Shows how it comes down from around the current level of c. $11,500 as the lithium and tantalum are produced and sold. It will make Uis on of the cheapest tin mines globally, which it needs to be as the grades are also low.

The note is a good read, above the usual standard of paid-for research, Roger Bell has some solid experience at JPM, Bernstein etc. Completing phase 1 in full at capex of $29m looks to make a lot of sense, with the credits from selling tantalum and lithium, brings the tin productions costs per tonne down to c. $2,530. IRRs and DCF values for the mine all look reasonable and are quite conservative, don't factor in any increase on the JORC resource etc. Doesn't really answer the question of where that capex will be funded from for completing phase 1, funding out of cashflow alone looks unlikely so more debt financing. Steers away from suggesting any further equity raise. The catalyst for the shares for the rest of 2020 really lies with getting the bottlenecks sorted, production up to 800t pa and more regular shipments.

Covid couldn't have come at a better time for this board to use it as an excuse to avoid the glare of direct shareholder scrutiny and table a new share option plan for themselves. I can almost sense their relief..

know what to make of the 14 day extension. Positive if chosen by AEX as it implies the agreement is close, negative if pressured into it by ARA who are only prepared to give them 2 weeks before they call in the loans. If we weren't on the hook to ARA before, we are now, and if Ambrose didn't know what a cluster-f**k AEX had become, he does now as well..Total farce.

An improvement on the first interview, pushed harder on detail. Felt it was only really constructive in the final third, got AV to confirm:
Not worried on low recovery to date and forecasts a dramatic improvement from now.
Equity shareholder dilution will be minimal and avoided for completion of phase 1 and all of phase 2.
Declared he was comfortable that free cash flows going forward would be able to meet financing costs of loans in 2021.
Tweaks and de-bottle necking already having significant +ve impact on throughput and recovery rates.
Lithium isn't just about batteries.
The resource is a monster.
Phase 2 talks are well established.
He is going to commit more resource and time to IR and push home the message.
5p by year end..?
GLA

Yhx Worzel, which site was this from pls..?

Thx Troajan - suggestion here is that we might get to full 65t/month production in Q3, so earlier than the year end target suggested by AV in the ops update. That would be a major plus, but also suggests we can improve from current 11t/month to 65 pretty quickly. I'm hoping so. The additional news on the US supply chain demand for Sn also welcome - might need to agree terms with a smelter closer to that market, rather than just relying on the one we currently use in Thailand. Presume they don't have exclusivity? GLA

@ Crux
Can you pls ask about the capex financing to complete phase 1/stage 1 (in the latest ops report they state this will be met from the loan finance secured in May - will this be sufficient?) and also the financing to complete phase 1/stages 2 to 4?
The latter is estimated to be c. $29m and stated to be met from sales revenues going forward plus longer term loans, as required. With the current low recovery of concentrate (11t per month vs targeted 65t/month), what proportion of this cost will be met from internal revenues and what from loans?
There is also the matter of the current outstanding loans of c. $5.7m which need repaying/refinancing in 2021 and how that need will also be met?
Finally, there have been suggestions of other companies looking at ATM as an acquisition - what is the situation here and what responses have come from the board in relation to these?
Many thanks - looking forward to the interview when it's available.

Alfa, I have just under 0.5% of this company, it’ll be party time at mine when they start selling Li2O...! Gla

petalite=castorite=Li2O..?
Indeed, i'll start pricing that in when they build the circuit and start selling some!

The pilot plant looks to be morphing into a more substantial production plant in a series of stages - i would call it phase 1.5
The intent is still to get to 5000t of concentrate under phase 2 but it appears this type of jump is only going to happen once 787t can be achieved, and we're currently abt 150..and getting to phase 1.5 will add petalite and increase recovery of tantalum. But it will cost - c. $29m of capex (minimum) and it will only start once the original phase 1 is up to nameplate capacity at the end of this year.

I'm hoping for some +ve surprises on throughput and concentrate production, making good use of this quiet period to focus on getting the process as efficient as possible. Let's see..

Believe we should get an operational update next week. Progress on ramp up and concentrate production? GLA

FB, the SP is still down 40% ytd, that not enough for you? Don’t leave it too late, strong chance of an ops update early next week..?

FT, not so much cursed as suffering from neglect. The narrative for ATM has dried up this year, and micro-caps like this need newsflow to sustain interest. AV is going to have to build that again from a very low base.
Surprised BMN hasn't caught a bid from the good news on Vanadium prices this week, plus the performance of Invinity, as reported by SP Angel again today.

MaxP - from the 2019 annual report:

Included in trade and other receivables is an amount of US$7.80 million due from the
TPDC for gas sales from Kiliwani North and related late payment interest. Aminex’s net share of the receivable is US$3.23 million
(31 December 2018: US$3.04 million). On 11 April 2018, the Company received formal notification from the TPDC requesting
payment of certain amounts totalling US$5.97 million for liabilities arising on revenues from gas sales, of which Aminex’s share is estimated to be US$2.73 million. Of the amount claimed, Aminex has already accrued for the liabilities it considers appropriate based on its own calculations of amounts due as at 31 December 2019. Aminex has advised the TPDC that it does not accept the balance of the claims, which include computational inaccuracies. The TPDC has delayed settling its trade receivable balance while discussions continue.

AND..

The Group has received legal advice in country that supports its position and this has been provided to the TPDC. No further provision has been made in the financial statements for the additional amounts claimed as the Directors believe the claims are without merit and are satisfied that the US$7.80 million included in trade receivables as owing from the TPDC is recoverable.

FB, directors and staff have been dumping ‘salary’ shares all year, monetising what they received in lieu of cash. This has been allowed to drift, AV doing a crap job in my view of updating shareholders, whether it’s progress with finance or at the mine. One Ops update in 8 months is slack, no excuses.

About 35.10 but don't hold your breath, lasts all of twenty seconds