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this morning's pop is linked to H&M or TP updating their research notes? Still nothing new to add on financing stages 2-4, hear that 2 banks are in the mix, but been hearing that now for months.
Crux certainly look silly - just 9 months after presenting ATM as the only pure-play SN stock on the LSE, they review the sector and neatly forget to mention it. Two different analysts, maybe they don't speak to each other! Or ATM hasn't renewed it's contract with Crux - no pay, no play. The sell-side is a sorry story these days..

They can have mine for 15p

I81, thanks. One thing, they’re forecasting profits to be higher than revenue in 2022, nice idea but unlikely. Can you check if the revenue forecast figure is correct? They seem to have definite views on timelines which is also reassuring, but based on what? Thanks for posting.

AV needs a new script writer. The narrative never changes, and he always seems to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. Nothing new there at all, not even a comment on current production. He could learn a lot from the first presenter, covered topics that are relevant to actual investment decisions. These presentations could be so much better, pity..

Interesting that during the last major spike inventory levels were also very healthy (although they did decline until new supply was brought online). This time inventory is almost non-existent and there are huge supply-side constraints. That's when you usually see the majors starting to hoover up assets, either producing or with long-life reserves. ATM fits the bill for both..

I'm hoping for more that just the africa tin champion/only pure play tin stock on the UK market - old hat, been there too many times already. This is time for the future story - huge JORC number, debt finance, timeline for completion of phase 1 - or, we're selling to someone who can do the above for 15p+..

Hearing good vibes about a couple of lenders who are looking at financing the next stages of phase 1. And no, this time I can’t provide proof..:)

Read any of the 6 month/12 month financials and the research notes from the brokers that cover them, easy to verify if you bother.

I think recent selling might be down to holders that received stock in lieu of cash monetising their shares - ATM has paid creditors regularly in stock over the last 12 months, no doubt some who kept them have been turning this into cash at the recent peak price. Hoping this overhang is getting cleared - why would you want to sell with the short squeeze on physical tin and expected news on the JORC figure and (hoping...) finance for stages 2-4...?

Alfa - Phase1/Stage1 is complete, but there are another 3 stages of Phase 1 to go before it's finished, requiring ~ $29m of capex, according to H&P. Phase 2 is years away and their guess - a further $100m of capex. It may never happen.
Completing Phase1/Stage2 only expected to yield a 50% increase to production capacity and Stages 3 and 4 are targeting petalite and some refinement to tin recovery. They see revenues in FY22E of £17.7m and about £30m the year after, when Phase 1 is actually complete.
We're priced where we are because there's no visibility on financing to do any of this, and the small matter of loans that mature shortly that they plan to repay with more shares. Highly dilutive.
If it wasn't for the tin price we'd be doing nothing. AV's passive approach to informing the market of plans & guidance sucks.

Both seem to have their sh*t together - spot price strength doing wonders for their margins. Who wouldn't want to finance one of the world's (potentially) largest, lowest cost, tin producers..? AV must be beating them off with a stick... :)

AV would be the laughing stock of Fricker Road if he even contemplated that sort of offer. Not surprised rumours of a bid are circulating, they started over 12 months ago. My guess is a finance deal is being worked on as faramog suggested - combination of loans, convertibles, some royalty agreements etc. Rumours often coincide with some kind of newsbreak, so wouldn't be surprised to hear something soon.

The Hannam note is not widely different to the TP one, as you'd expect. Phase 1 worth ~ 5p/share. completed phase 2 ~ 12p/share. More conservative pricing assumptions for the metals, their models seem to assume all funding comes from loans and convertibles, no new equity issuance after '21 year end (heard that before..).
Again they emphasize that the current resource at Uis is based on only 2 out of 12 historical pits and there are a further 160+ pegmatites within 5km of the site - why we don't get more credit for this or ATM actually provide a full resource estimate is beyond me - surely this has to be a priority..?
This project is scalable to the max, but is being priced as a pilot plant with limited EBITDA. What gives..?

Thanks Jimbo
$11m capex spend to realise an NPV uplift of c. $40m, what's not to like. TP allude to this being financed by long-term debt and cash flow - would love to see confirmation of this and terms of the loan. And a proper JORC number for the whole license - must be ready soon..?
Good update, pity AV couldn't have been clearer on detail in that home-made PR video, which really did look amateurish..
GL
PD

Good points TC, other than, you don't normally borrow 150% of the value of your house to build an extension, or expect to give away some equity in it for free (or at a huge discount). Which is what we currently face doing. Agree that ATM is grossly undervalued but this is largely down to poor communication from the company, missed deadlines and great uncertainty about the risk of equity issuance. Plus, getting a JORC value for our total reserves wouldn't hurt. Looks like the Crux interviews have been parked for a while too..

TC, maxing out phase 1 still requires c. $39m of capex (according to Turner Pope, June 20) + we have another chunk of loans to refinance/settle with equity in 2021. Not insignificant sums. The 11.4 target price is dependent on this and some pretty lofty assumptions for the prices of Li, Sn and Ta. Phase 2 isn't (realistically) even on the drawing board yet - it may never happen depending on the success of completing stages 2-4 of phase 1.
The lack of news on the financing of operations next year is what concerns me.

you wanted to avoid the excitement of stock investing for the past six months, then ATM has been the place to be. Nada return, nada news on financing, nada interest it seems from our esteemed teams of execs. Just what will get us out of this rut? Maybe some clarity on how we expect to finance the next 12-18 months of expansion. It's only something that work started on in Q4 2019, maybe earlier. Jeez AV, give us something to get excited abt, pls...!

From a non-Chinese controlled source direct to Europe..? Courtesy SPA..

EU - slowly waking up to the threat of raw material supply from China as Auto manufacturers rush to EVs
• Europe is so far behind China in mine production and mineral processing it is very hard to see how the EU is going to stimulate sufficient European production to meet new demand from its automotive, wind turbine and other manufacturers.
• Price squeeze: Auto manufacturers are now faced with having to compete with a number of new rapid-growth, Chinese manufacturers for commodities which are almost exclusively processed in China and where the mines are also often under Chinese control.
• All the world’s hard-rock, spodumene, lithium production is processed in China into battery grade lithium hydroxide indicating the stranglehold the Chinese have on critical raw material supply.
• REEs: some 70-77% of the World’s REE are processed in China with that proportion rising when it comes to REE supply control according to the Foreign Policy Research Institute in their analysis on 7 October 2020.
• While auto manufacturers are expert at cutting costs and thrifting they are not so used to competing with China inc. for raw materials and will need to offer firm contracts to miners and refiners to stimulate sufficient new raw material supply to avert serious shortages in Europe as EV manufacturing ramps up.

Jimbo, this note is fine, but I think their target price for 28/02/21 (on front page) is either wrong or widely optimistic. 11.7p and yet their income model later on doesn't forecast +ve EPS until end FY 2023, so fully 28 months away from today. I don't see the market pricing in this milestone for some time, least of all moving to a target which includes the cash flow from completed phases 1 and 2..!
It's fine to say the company will look to initiate stage 2 of phase 1 in the new year, but as yet the question mark hanging over us about how this is financed, and how the loans maturing next year are paid back, is the elephant in the namib desert...we need clarity on both to move forward. The threat of huge dilution here is very real given the proposal to pay off these loans with fresh equity. AV has done nothing to alleviate that risk, as yet. Time he did..

Thanks Max, PoC, BG, CP, alot clearer now..!