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This was clearly oversold at the end of the last Q, sponge makes a valid point abt the loan conversion and possibility of selling linked to that, maybe even BMN given their issues. Reloaded at 4.9p and expect this to trade back above 6p pretty soon.

Proven reserves in the new economy metals space will attract bids in this new commodity cycle..

BHP (BHP LN) 2,103p, £44bn – plans to double exploration budget within five years
BHP plans to almost double exploration spending for base metals within five years according to its Chief Technical Officer Laura Tyler.
The company expects to log bumper profits in August, driven by booming iron ore prices, however its pipeline for new projects is viewed as thin.
BHP is looking to raise its exposure to new economy minerals including copper and nickel, according to Tyler.
Global exploration spending for base metals will nearly double within five years from the current annual $70m to $80m, excluding outlays for early entry join ventures.

I sold a third of my holding at 6.95p and am going back in today - think you muset be mad or desperate to be selling here now. I get the feeling this selling is some of the placing participants who were looking for a quick turn and don't have the time horizon to wait 12 months.

It was good to get some detail on the other licenses and their potential. The early answers to questions were very abbreviated and scripted but the responses got better - Laurence came across really well and I’m glad to see him onboard as a NED to really push the potential outside of Uis. Looks like Q1 22 before the expansion of phase 1 is complete (conservative but we’ve slipped on construction before) and hopefully Q4 21 for breakthrough on by-product separation. 12-15p a year from now seems realistic, maybe higher if SN price stays tight. I think the angle here was also to present the size of the resource ATM is sat on to the wider mining market, so validation of those resource numbers across all the licenses will be interesting. A bidder now is going to have to pay a fair bit more than 15p..

• Tin prices on the LME hit fresh 10-year highs on Friday morning, rising 3% to over $30,000/t and up 4.3% this week.
• China’s Yunnan province is currently experiencing power outages affecting smelters, with the International Tin Association estimating that smelters will shut for about 10 to 20 days an impact 1000-2000t of refined production.
• Earthquakes following a volcanic eruption in Congo are disrupting exports of tin concentrate from mineral-rich North Kivu province, with Congo accounting for 8% of the world’s tin concentrate.

SP Angel

Just one comment on the call, and it's been made before, you could see Matthew's frustration building when trying to get specific info out of AV. This time was better than the previous 2 calls (just), but it is like getting blood out of a stone, on key data which is actually very +ve for the company when given. We got there in the end, which is down to his ability as a call host, but it was almost another missed opportunity to push the potential of this company. AV, great on giving the growth story for tech metals, but please, stay on the page and answer the questions with specific info. We now know the aim is to supply 3% of the global tin market, that costs shd gravitate down to $17k/tonne, revenues/month shd be close to $2.2m by he end of the year and there is enough tin on their licenses to keep mining for >100 years. But still no real answer on the economic value of the Li...

Thanks CT

We, therefore, continue to see considerable upside beyond the 1.2Mtpa project, and remain positive on the outlook for ATM. Based on our revised estimates the stock trades on CY21 and ‘22E EV/EBITDAs of 12.1x and 4.5x, respectively, which we see as particularly compelling in light of the Company’s growth potential: assuming Phase 2 construction starts by the end of CY22, and a ~2-year build, EBITDA could grow roughly five-fold by CY25E vs CY22E on our estimates. ATM shares currently sit at 0.33x our unrisked NPV of 18.4p and 0.49x our risked target of 12.5p per share; if current tin prices persist at ~US$30,000/t (3m fwd), these figures would increase ~50% to 27.7p unrisked and 18.8p risked.

Valuation: SOTP increased to 12.5p, with 50% further upside at current tin price We have updated our model to reflect solid production and stronger than expected tin prices to date. We have also increased our near-term tin price assumptions to reflect higher spot prices, although we leave our long-term (post 2023E) price unchanged at US$20,000/t. However, this is partially offset by a rescheduling in our model of P1 optimisations to assume a slower ramp up in tantalum and lithium recoveries, as testing is still in progress. Despite increasing our target multiple on P2, we have deferred our assumed first output from P2 by ~18 months to end CY24E, as we expect ATM’s focus to remain on optimising P1, advancing studies on P2 and completing infill drilling required to prove Uis’ Inferred tantalum and lithium Resources up to a Reserve standard. Furthermore, the fully diluted share count has increased on the inclusion of the newly placed shares, plus options and shares issued to management earlier this year. As a result of these changes our risked SOTP valuation increases by a modest 7% to 12.5p per share (as at Feb’22E), 105% above the current share price, although we note at the current 3m forward price of ~US$30,000/t our valuation would increase ~50% to 18.8p.

Apparently placing was oversubscribed by almost 100%. hence extra 50m shares issued..

Looking forward to the updated research note from H&P, modelling future revenues for 2022/23 on the back of the production upgrade this brings and forecast SN prices (surely now above the conservative $20k/tin previously used).
Bet AV wishes he never uttered the phrase 'no more dilution/issuance' on that call 18 months ago - share count is now 400mn higher. Be interesting to se s what the shareholder register looks like after the placing, suspect more small cap/resource funds on the list.

Lots of off book/prior day trades reported late yday, aggregate broker volume c. 60m for the last 2 days, chunky, around the 6.55 area.

Plan is to use existing (extended) loan note and free cash flow to finance this, no extra funding needed. Those IRRs are insane, and that’s at a v conservative spot price of $20k. At current levels the NPV and payback times are a no-brainier. Shd be complete by end 2021 with v little disruption. And when the revised JORC drops....Boom..!

register, Canaccord/Hargreave Hale are now showing a 0% holding it ATM. They had c'. 5.5% after the 2.1p fundraise last August, so looks like they've headed for the door. 44m shares from the RNS.

BG, as of March 9, there are 6 other reported holders of >3% but these are all brokers/platforms so reflect the consolidated holdings of their clients. Majedie showing at 2.2%, couple of named individuals with 1%+ but it’s a very retail shareholder list.

The most important confirmation to me from the call is that phase 1 expansion (inc tantalum and Li production) is going to be met from cashflows - no mention of extra finance or equity issuance needed for this. Bank loans then in place for the much larger phase 2 expansion.

Thanks GG

Looks like a good response to the MelloTuesday presentation last night - anyone know if there's a playback version of the event..?

Correct I81 - in the latest financials ATM suggested both are due to be repaid through equity issuance, although this isn't certain. The fact that the SP is now above the conversion price makes it more likely this will happen, per the AfriMet election to do so.

I re-read the TP research note from Feb 3rd earlier - based on the 2012 JORC resource estimate for Uis, at today's metal prices (in fact, they're higher now), the in situ valuation of the 3 metals we aim to mine is c. $3.3bn. That's just for the V1 and V2 pits (these are meant to be the biggest but no-one knows for sure..) - and there are maybe another 11 pits with similar potential. So maybe $20-30bn deposit value. And their NPV calculation just about nudges $200m..?
I saw some video footage of the V1 pit in action from February, truly enormous operation , looks to be a good 100m below the surrounding levels now.
This is going to be enormous.