RE: Finance27 Oct 2019 09:54
Pepco, i believe the 538M warrants that would be due via tranche 1 (Piker's larger figure only applies if all 4 tranches are applied) , would equate to dilution of 5.26% and of course deliver an approx additional $1.8M in cash to Vast if they were redeemed
Personally, I think, as others have suggested that the plan would be to refinance tranche 1 within 12 months of the deal.
How? If, as we are told, BP is in production by year end (??), then next years annual report would show how much fcf is being generated and much more accurate forecasts be available going forward.
That would hopefully be illustrated in a higher SP, which would create capacity for a placing between year end accounts and 12 month anniversary of the tranche 1 being drawn down. The placing would be used to repay Atlas, with less dilution than allowing them to convert the bonds.
Risks are obviously that BP doesn't produce enough, quick enough, at good enough grades and macro conditions affecting the commodity prices that Mercuria would pay ( which I think is based on a % of the spot price - ie not fixed)