Member Info for Pdub

Ophidian great that you ignored negativity and posted on Wave Theory.

As far as rude posters are concerned well you know my line on that .... Filter. No excuse for it at all !!!!!

I don't know how interesting you or others might find this in the light of your speculation that T3 will peak end November / early December at 32.5p to 34p, but here goes:

I have previously demonstrated that most of the SP Angel share price targets for BMN since late 2017 have taken 3 to 4 months to be achieved. They put out a target of 33.6p on 13 August 2018. If this follows previous pattern then it would be reached in the period 13 November to 13 December. Compare the middle of that range with your dates and their target price with your speculation ..... Hmmm. Interesting!

Now having mentioned SP Angel I have put on my tin hat and can be found sheltering in a nuclear bunker.

Regards. Pdub.

Faramog hopefully the missing words at the end if some sections (LSE limit per post) have been added at the start of the next part.

Regards. Pdub.

Faramog I am happy for any transcripts to go onto TBP if Alfa so wishes.

Very welcome Tyfoon. Sorry about the issues posting.

Regards. Pdub.

Part 7

"Yes because if you look at our current production base you look at our numbers and you look at our growth in terms of the rate the level at which we want to be producing vanadium if we can achieve that at a low cost of production and if we are successful with all the initiatives on the energy storage side, all of that taken together, we think that they speak of a company's value that's significantly north of where we are today," (19.05)

The end. Good grief that was hard work !!

Regards. Pdub.

Part 6

So if you take that picture collectively those fundamentals are far stronger than they have ever been in the past and so they do explain why vanadium prices are the way they are today. So that shouldn't be much surprise." (15.51)

"What are you working on? What are the priorities for the rest of this year and into 2019?"
"So there are a few things that we are busy with. I think we've indicated that for us simplifying our structure and our access to the cash flows at Vametco was an important part. We have done that now and we are working hard in the VRFB battery at Eskom that we hope to have installed.the phase 3 expansion work at Vametco is commencing in earnest. The work at Brits as I indicated in terms of defining a resource there. We are continuously looking for brown field assets as I have indicated that's work that we are continuing to do. We are encouraged by what we see in the market and then another point I would mention is that we did indicate that we will come to the market with a policy around how we view distributions going forward, particularly our thoughts regarding dividends. We want to make sure that we're not ad hoc about it so we are putting so ice work in terms of defining a sustainable distributions policy which we will announce to the market hopefully before the end of this year. And then finally we also indicated that for the first time we want to provide a framework by which investors can start to put some value to what we have been doing in the energy storage space. If you read all the research on BMN you will notice that there's not much that's said about Bushveld Energy in terms of its value contribution to our story and we think that by presenting what that financial model might look like so people can start to get a view what is the earning potential of BE and how does it contribute to the value of BMN that we think is going to be a great development before the end of the year." (17.51)
"Just a final comment on the dividend. I'm sure shareholders listening to this they will be encouraged by that, but why is important for you to start considering this now?"
"We generate good cash I think we've got a low production base. It's important that we make sure that we maintain discipline in terms of how we deal with capital and a distribution policy is one of those things that will ensure that you're quite disciplined, you don't just hoard cash on your balance sheet. Notwithstanding the fact that we are still very much a growth story and we still will need to deploy capital to the growth initiatives our view is that we can balance the two and we can do both and that's what we would like to do." (18.30)
"So still a growth story. The M/C round about £300 million. You reckon there's plenty of room for that to increase?"
"Yes because if you look at our current production base you look at our numbers and you look at our growth in terms of the rate the level at which we want to be producing vanadium if we can achiev

Part 5

So it's a product that we will be bringing out into the market and we are very excited about that and we think it's a game changer for VRFBs and the energy storage market." (12.31)

"Did you ever foresee the vanadium price hitting the levels it's at at the moment?"
"Well it's done this before in about 2006. Did we expect it to get here this quickly? I think I would lie if I said yes. However I think the point to make is that if you look at the fundamentals of the vanadium market the demand side is still strong if not stronger. Even if we talk about the steel sector only with a new standard coming in in China for rebar next month which is estimated by some to result in as much as 30% increase in demand for vanadium in China alone. That new standard strengthens the demand of vanadium significantly. And then other emerging markets as they are developing infrastructure investment is a driver of their GDP growth, so we expect that the vanadium intensity of use in those markets, India comes to mind for example, will drive to greater demands for vanadium. So the demand is solid. The energy storage will add to that demand picture significantly. This dynamic I've just described was not present in 2005 / 6 when we saw the last peak or in 2008 when we saw the other peak at about $80/90 kgV. In addition to all of this you have a structural change in the supply side in the steel sector particularly where you have low annual prices on the back of excess capacity, where you see the steel market flat going forward notwithstanding the increasing intensity of the use of vanadium in steel making in general. We are seeing a greater role of scrap in terms of steel production so what we see in the steel market side is that the demand is solid, the intensity of use of vanadium in steel is growing but the supply is not able to respond sufficiently. That structural change that I've talked about in the steel market has hit vanadium co-producers and vanadium co-producers you may recall 74 % of vanadium is produced by steel plants in China and Russia predominantly that produce steel and vanadium as a byproduct. They are not profitable by and large. To help improve their cost position they blend some of them with hematite ores that don't contain vanadium. In some instances they have stopped vanadium production altogether so we have seen reductions in supply even in an environment where vanadium prices have gone up. That's because those reductions are coming predominantly from this space. If you look on the horizon in terms of new supply we don't see a lot of new supply. In fact something like 81% of new projects under development out there they are for co-production pig iron steel plant type of plants which require substantial capex. How many of them will come into production is anybody's guess. So if you take that picture collectively those fundamentals are far stronger than they have ever been in the past and so they do explain why vanadium prices are the way

Doh. I give up ! The clock change has beaten me.

Parts 1 to 6 should however be in sequence.

Part 4

"We've had the World Bank group coming out and committing $1 billion to finance a certain level of energy storage by 2025?"
"They've committed $1 billion. They've also indicated they intend to leverage that up to $5 billion and what's particularly interesting is the fact that they referred to battery technologies - energy storage technologies specifically. They are great because of the fact that they can be deployed flexibly and so Africa's energy needs, not just Africa but emerging markets or developing countries they tend to have sparse populations and distributed generation solutions typically are quite attractive in that space, and when you are talking about distributed generation solutions where you don't have long distance transmission infrastructure (switch support?) to pair renewables with energy storage solutions. So that's a very exciting development for us and again an opportunity space which we are going to be chasing up very aggressively." (10.18)
"So you're looking to have your first battery commissioned by year end is the target?"
"At Eskom, that's correct."
"With vanadium prices where they are , at or pretty close to all time highs, any concerns there for the outlook for vanadium batteries and Bushveld Energy?"
"Ironically we think that current prices are creating an interesting opportunity for Bushveld Energy. Why I say that, we think that we've always been advocates that the solution for VRFBs is in a vertically integrated business model, particularly when you do it with low cost production capacity that's scalable for vanadium units. The 2 key challenges for VRFBs that we see as eminently solvable. The supply of vanadium into the systems. There is enough vanadium in the ground and with scaled up production capacity particularly and again when you do this on a brown field basis you can do it fairly quickly, you can solve the availability of vanadium for VRFBs. The second part is the input cost of vanadium to VRFBs. The current prices you are talking potentially another 50% so that is high yes and it could potentially make VRFBs expensive if, and its a big if, you looked at VRFB procurement only from a capex point of view. But remember that VRFBs are 20+ year life batteries. The vanadium electrolyte that you put in these systems doesn't degrade over that life and is reusable at the end of the life of the battery. And these are typically large systems so 10 MW hour battery system will typically have about 55 tons of vanadium. So you can secure this you can put in place insurance around it and here is where we think the magic is, you can rent the electrolyte into these systems and in one stroke you can take out a significant part of the capex convert it into opex and you are not taking the full chunk into opex because you still have residual life of the vanadium at the end of that. So it's a product that we will be bringing out into the market and we are very excited about that and we think it's a game changer for VR

Part 3

"Bushveld Energy lots of exciting developments here Fortune. What can you bring us up to date on?"
"There's continuing growing excitement and interest in energy storage, particularly in the opportunity for VRFBs in that space. In think that often times when people think about energy storage people confuse it with the EV market and there's obviously a lot of talk about that and lithium ions in that space, but when we're talking about stationary storage market then there's a growing recognition that this is a really sizeable and interesting market space. That space in our view is really where VRFBs come into their own. Good positioning, good timing for us as a company given what we have been doing in the last 3 / 4 years with BE, namely among other things we have commenced with work in terms of developing a manufacturing facility for electrolyte which will supply into this industry, starting with a minimum 200 MW hours of electrolyte pa. We are developing that together with the Industrial Development Corporation. In addition we are still on track with putting up a VRFB at Eskom before the end of the year, which will be important to demonstrate the proposition of VRFBs to utilities such as Eskom. We continue also to do quite a lot of work in terms of developing mandates for energy storage. In this particular space over this past year we have seen tremendous progress. You might not be aware but SA has put out a draft Integrated Resource Plan which is essentially a plan on how SA's energy generation mix will look like over the next 20 + years. That plan makes a few very bold statements which are exciting. One of them is that there is a very clear commitment to renewable energy, targeting as much as 13000 MW of new renewable energy generation. As you know renewable energy is quite intermittent and with if its paired with energy storage it creates significant opportunities for us. Equally there is also commitment in that IRP to peaking capacity of about 9000 MW of new generation peaking capacity, a space in which energy storage solutions can also play. We are well positioned in SA in our view to play a leading role in terms of capturing these opportunities, and to underline even further these opportunities the utilities in SA are starting to make moves in terms of procuring energy storage capacity in SA and we think that with VRFBs which comprise or will consist when they are assembled in SA of more than 70% of local content we can't think of any better battery solution for SA than VRFBs." (9.19)

Please ignore all my posts in this thread prior to this post. Apologies for the excess of posts due to posting either side of 14.00 BST and clocks going back. The 6 parts of the transcript should appear in sequence following this post.

I do hope after all this that someone finds them helpful!!!

Regards. Pdub.

Part 2

"And so the Phase 2 expansion plan is completed now?"
"We've completed the 2nd phase of expansion which is to take our production capacity up to 3750 mtV and this will be followed immediately by Phase 3 with the objective of taking our production capacity all the way up to 5000 mtV pa and it's a lot of work to do but we are relatively confident. What is also great about this is that it is also funded between Phase 1 and 3 a combined capital spend of about $18 million. It's a small amount of money to pay relative for an additional 2000 mtV and at current prices we are talking about its money well spent." (04.47)"I want to talk more about the vanadium price shortly. As far as the rest of the business what about Brits, Mokopane, what's the latest with these?"
"With the corporate piece completed we are talking about toting up the structure of Vametco. Operationally very much the intent is we talk about horn tall growth which is growing our production capacity as well as our vertical growth in terms of what we are doing in the energy storage to deliver what we call the vertically integrated vanadium platform. For that horizontal growth piece is comprised of the expansion plan of Vametco which we spoke about, and the Brits vanadium project is an important piece of that in terms of growing our resource base. We've completed a drilling campaign there and we expect to declare a maiden resource in the near future. We expect that sometime in Q1. That together with the resource base at Vametco and the resource base at the Mokopane project gives us a really solid resource base to build from. Obviously the Vametco asset its processing capacity once we complete Phase 3 at 5000 mtV production pa only speaks to a small portion of that resource base. To do it justice we will need to increase our production capacity significantly North of that, which is what we've talked about a target of 10000 mtV pa. to do that brownfield assets are becoming an important part of our strategy which we have talked about in the past." (6.17)

Part 1 Fortune ProActive Interview transcript 17.10.18

"Your Interims out recently. A significant period given its the first period you've had a controlling stake in Vametco. Your interest in the assets changed a number of times over the last few months. We'll get on to that in a moment but the sixth months itself a pretty solid period for the company?"
"The numbers are very attractive. This is the first time that we are presenting consolidated numbers for BMN incorporating Vametco and fir the first half the numbers are quite good. £62 million in revenues with an Ebitda margin of 50% at £31.7 million and a net profit of £21 million. Free cash flow at £10 million is really good and a consolidated cash position of £26 million with no debt. I think in any stretch H1 numbers which we are very proud of and what makes these numbers particularly interesting is that they are all based on an average vanadium price of $65 kgV and compared to current prices which are north of $110 kgV which we think should set the scene quite nicely fir the second half. I should also just highlight that if you take our Ebitda number of £31.7 million its approximately how much it's cost us over the different phases of the acquisition of the Vametco asset from the initial acquisition with Yellow Dragon to the take out of Yellow Dragon to the take out of Sojitz which we announced recently." (01.54)
"Talk us through the last eight / twelve months and how you got to this point."
"If you go back to when we first announced the transaction you'll recall that we acquired a 78.8% interest in SMC which is a company that owned a 75% interest in Vametco. That 78.8% the vehicle that acquired it we owned only 45% interest with the other 55% owned by Yellow Dragon and that transaction was a $16.5 million transaction. Then in December last year we bought out Yellow Dragon for a sum of about $12 million and that increased our effective interest in Vametco from 26.6% to 59%, and then last month early in September with the acquisition of Sojitz for $20 million we took out the 21.2% interest they had in SMC which then consolidates our overall interest to 74% of Vametco and that completes the process of acquiring Vametco." (03.09)
"So are you pleased to be at this point?"
"Absolutely. This is where we were heading for ... we wanted to get to. I think with the numbers we just talked about earlier on you can see why we want to be close to such a strong cash generating asset. Vametco it provides us with a platform for the journey ahead which is still a very exciting journey of growth." (03.33)
"And this 74% stake am I right in thinking that's the maximum allowable interest you can achieve here?"
"That's correct because in SA in terms of Mining Charter 2 the requirement is that the Black Economic Empowerment shareholding would be a minimum of 26%. This is why we've got 74%." (03.57)
"And so the Phase 2 expansion plan is completed now?"
"We've completed the 2nd phase of expansion which is

Apologies for repitition of part 5. Was trying to post just after 02.00 and of course hadn't realised the new time stamp. Will repost 5 and add 6 after the GMT 02.00 to keep parts in correct sequence.

Struggling to post parts 5 and 6. LSE site at its best. Will try once more but may have to wait until later on Sunday.

Part 5

"... VRFBs and the energy storage market."
"Did you ever foresee the vanadium price hitting the levels it's at at the moment?"
"Well it's done this before in about 2006. Did we expect it to get here this quickly? I think I would lie if I said yes. However I think the point to make is that if you look at the fundamentals of the vanadium market the demand side is still strong if not stronger. Even if we talk about the steel sector only with a new standard coming in in China for rebar next month which is estimated by some to result in as much as 30% increase in demand for vanadium in China alone. That new standard strengthens the demand of vanadium significantly. And then other emerging markets as they are developing infrastructure investment is a driver of their GDP growth, so we expect that the vanadium intensity of use in those markets, India comes to mind for example, will drive to greater demands for vanadium. So the demand is solid. The energy storage will add to that demand picture significantly. This dynamic I've just described was not present in 2005 / 6 when we saw the last peak or in 2008 when we saw the other peak at about $80/90 kgV. In addition to all of this you have a structural change in the supply side in the steel sector particularly where you have low annual prices on the back of excess capacity, where you see the steel market flat going forward notwithstanding the increasing intensity of the use of vanadium in steel making in general. We are seeing a greater role of scrap in terms of steel production so what we see in the steel market side is that the demand is solid, the intensity of use of vanadium in steel is growing but the supply is not able to respond sufficiently. That structural change that I've talked about in the steel market has hit vanadium co-producers and vanadium co-producers you may recall 74 % of vanadium is produced by steel plants in China and Russia predominantly that produce steel and vanadium as a byproduct. They are not profitable by and large. To help improve their cost position they blend some of them with hematite ores that don't contain vanadium. In some instances they have stopped vanadium production altogether so we have seen reductions in supply even in an environment where vanadium prices have gone up. That's because those reductions are coming predominantly from this space. If you look on the horizon in terms of new supply we don't see a lot of new supply. In fact something like 81% of new projects under development out there they are for co-production pig iron steel plant type of plants which require substantial capex. How many of them will come into production is anybody's guess. So if you take that picture collectively those fundamentals are far stronger than they have ever been in the past and so they do explain why vanadium prices are the way they are today. So that shouldn't be much surprise." (15.51)

Part 5

"... and the energy storage market."
"Did you ever foresee the vanadium price hitting the levels it's at at the moment?"
"Well it's done this before in about 2006. Did we expect it to get here this quickly? I think I would lie if I said yes. However I think the point to make is that if you look at the fundamentals of the vanadium market the demand side is still strong if not stronger. Even if we talk about the steel sector only with a new standard coming in in China for rebar next month which is estimated by some to result in as much as 30% increase in demand for vanadium in China alone. That new standard strengthens the demand of vanadium significantly. And then other emerging markets as they are developing infrastructure investment is a driver of their GDP growth, so we expect that the vanadium intensity of use in those markets, India comes to mind for example, will drive to greater demands for vanadium. So the demand is solid. The energy storage will add to that demand picture significantly. This dynamic I've just described was not present in 2005 / 6 when we saw the last peak or in 2008 when we saw the other peak at about $80/90 kgV. In addition to all of this you have a structural change in the supply side in the steel sector particularly where you have low annual prices on the back of excess capacity, where you see the steel market flat going forward notwithstanding the increasing intensity of the use of vanadium in steel making in general. We are seeing a greater role of scrap in terms of steel production so what we see in the steel market side is that the demand is solid, the intensity of use of vanadium in steel is growing but the supply is not able to respond sufficiently. That structural change that I've talked about in the steel market has hit vanadium co-producers and vanadium co-producers you may recall 74 % of vanadium is produced by steel plants in China and Russia predominantly that produce steel and vanadium as a byproduct. They are not profitable by and large. To help improve their cost position they blend some of them with hematite ores that don't contain vanadium. In some instances they have stopped vanadium production altogether so we have seen reductions in supply even in an environment where vanadium prices have gone up. That's because those reductions are coming predominantly from this space. If you look on the horizon in terms of new supply we don't see a lot of new supply. In fact something like 81% of new projects under development out there they are for co-production pig iron steel plant type of plants which require substantial capex. How many of them will come into production is anybody's guess. So if you take that picture collectively those fundamentals are far stronger than they have ever been in the past and so they do explain why vanadium prices are the way they are today. So that shouldn't be much surprise." (15.51)

Part 5

"... and the energy storage market."

"Did you ever foresee the vanadium price hitting the levels it's at at the moment?"
"Well it's done this before in about 2006. Did we expect it to get here this quickly? I think I would lie if I said yes. However I think the point to make is that if you look at the fundamentals of the vanadium market the demand side is still strong if not stronger. Even if we talk about the steel sector only with a new standard coming in in China for rebar next month which is estimated by some to result in as much as 30% increase in demand for vanadium in China alone. That new standard strengthens the demand of vanadium significantly. And then other emerging markets as they are developing infrastructure investment is a driver of their GDP growth, so we expect that the vanadium intensity of use in those markets, India comes to mind for example, will drive to greater demands for vanadium. So the demand is solid. The energy storage will add to that demand picture significantly. This dynamic I've just described was not present in 2005 / 6 when we saw the last peak or in 2008 when we saw the other peak at about $80/90 kgV. In addition to all of this you have a structural change in the supply side in the steel sector particularly where you have low annual prices on the back of excess capacity, where you see the steel market flat going forward notwithstanding the increasing intensity of the use of vanadium in steel making in general. We are seeing a greater role of scrap in terms of steel production so what we see in the steel market side is that the demand is solid, the intensity of use of vanadium in steel is growing but the supply is not able to respond sufficiently. That structural change that I've talked about in the steel market has hit vanadium co-producers and vanadium co-producers you may recall 74 % of vanadium is produced by steel plants in China and Russia predominantly that produce steel and vanadium as a byproduct. They are not profitable by and large. To help improve their cost position they blend some of them with hematite ores that don't contain vanadium. In some instances they have stopped vanadium production altogether so we have seen reductions in supply even in an environment where vanadium prices have gone up. That's because those reductions are coming predominantly from this space. If you look on the horizon in terms of new supply we don't see a lot of new supply. In fact something like 81% of new projects under development out there they are for co-production pig iron steel plant type of plants which require substantial capex. How many of them will come into production is anybody's guess. So if you take that picture collectively those fundamentals are far stronger than they have ever been in the past and so they do explain why vanadium prices are the way they are today. So that shouldn't be much surprise." (15.51)

Part 5

"Did you ever foresee the vanadium price hitting the levels it's at at the moment?"
"Well it's done this before in about 2006. Did we expect it to get here this quickly? I think I would lie if I said yes. However I think the point to make is that if you look at the fundamentals of the vanadium market the demand side is still strong if not stronger. Even if we talk about the steel sector only with a new standard coming in in China for rebar next month which is estimated by some to result in as much as 30% increase in demand for vanadium in China alone. That new standard strengthens the demand of vanadium significantly. And then other emerging markets as they are developing infrastructure investment is a driver of their GDP growth, so we expect that the vanadium intensity of use in those markets, India comes to mind for example, will drive to greater demands for vanadium. So the demand is solid. The energy storage will add to that demand picture significantly. This dynamic I've just described was not present in 2005 / 6 when we saw the last peak or in 2008 when we saw the other peak at about $80/90 kgV. In addition to all of this you have a structural change in the supply side in the steel sector particularly where you have low annual prices on the back of excess capacity, where you see the steel market flat going forward notwithstanding the increasing intensity of the use of vanadium in steel making in general. We are seeing a greater role of scrap in terms of steel production so what we see in the steel market side is that the demand is solid, the intensity of use of vanadium in steel is growing but the supply is not able to respond sufficiently. That structural change that I've talked about in the steel market has hit vanadium co-producers and vanadium co-producers you may recall 74 % of vanadium is produced by steel plants in China and Russia predominantly that produce steel and vanadium as a byproduct. They are not profitable by and large. To help improve their cost position they blend some of them with hematite ores that don't contain vanadium. In some instances they have stopped vanadium production altogether so we have seen reductions in supply even in an environment where vanadium prices have gone up. That's because those reductions are coming predominantly from this space. If you look on the horizon in terms of new supply we don't see a lot of new supply. In fact something like 81% of new projects under development out there they are for co-production pig iron steel plant type of plants which require substantial capex. How many of them will come into production is anybody's guess. So if you take that picture collectively those fundamentals are far stronger than they have ever been in the past and so they do explain why vanadium prices are the way they are today. So that shouldn't be much surprise." (15.51)

I have completed a transcript of this rather excellent interview and hope to post it either later tonight or more likely tomorrow.