Member Info for PC01

...posts removed for talking about Kiwi Pinot Noir? Weird...didn't think I was being particularly offensive to anyone...

Great minds think alike or Fools seldom differ Manifesto??! 40 reported trades today, only 3 sells rest buys of varying shape n size...i very rarely look at these trade histories, but helps morale...we might have to stop the beatings!

I actually disagree...there has been a bout of profit taking (understandable) and a deep pull back...but as we were all at pains to say over the past few days...there has been nothing fundamental since we had buyers happily paying north of £3 for stock...indeed we are that much closer to the next cohort release....so as far as I am concerned, if it can fall in a news vacuum, it can bloody well rise in one as well!

Reneuron is 1.6% of WPCT NAV....I'm afraid that even if it goes up 10 fold from here (which lets face it is what we kinda think / hope) its not going to have a huge impact on WPCT....
Still a few buyers here today and maybe a few shorts being covered....ideally close north of £2.50 from a chart perspective be helpful....

Lets not get the facts get in the way of a good story...the majority of his holding (85% +) is in Patient Capital...this fund is a 'closed end fund' - as such, it is a quoted company on the LSE and can be bought and sold like any other share. As such, it can and will trade at a premium or in this case a discount to NAV but does not in itself mean that the Fund has to sell its holdings. It will only have to sell its holdings if the Fund goes bust, which is most unlikely as the majority of its investments are in unquoted / unlisted assets which can't be shorted by the hedge funds.
This wont stop day traders / hedge funds and others having a go...but there is no chance in god's green earth (very green after today's rain) that 35% of the company is now for sale because its owner is having difficulty with his flagship equity income fund.

A few thoughts as we all get a little grumpy about the selling that's going on - remember fear is one of the 2 emotions that typically drive investment behaviour (greed being t'other!)...and as we watch the SP fall to £2.0 from £3.30 those who bought between 80p and £2.50 begin to twitch (those of us who've been in for 5+years will understand this price action a bit better!)...but
The directors bought a few shares c 2.30 and their share options are at multiples of that price...
Market cap £75mm.
Cash in bank c £40mm
Fosun deal worth potentially £80mm with further add-ons in the event of success...
More deals to come (results.RNS)
Further trial data to come...
there is much to believe in - equally I completely understand the fear of the price action. it wouldn't be the first time I have invested in a company and missed why the SP was falling...and we may be completely wrong about HF shorts...but I think the odds are - unlike the hunger games - in our favour here. Technically the 200 DMA now at £1.08 so a long way away with the 50 here at £2.50...

Sadly i think it will take an update (positive!) from Reneuron to take this away from the vulture hedge funds...the fact that Woodford has transferred some of WPCT to an equity income fund really has put the cat amongst the pigeons. We can argue as much as we like that the current price is not reflective of the company's prospects, but if hedge funds are shorting it (or private investors are bailing in fear of that) then we have to await that news. the good news is that if we get a decent update then the bounce from here will be aggressive! Hold tight methinks and fingers crossed.

Momentum is an extraordinary thing. As is fear. It seemed a one way bet at £3.00 and now the doubts set in. There has been no news to justify the move just a presumption that one fund manager will be forced to liquidate his outsized position...I have bought more at 2.55 this morning as I thought it was cheap at £3! Time as ever will tell! Bon chance all.

The following should be read in the full understanding that I have had a good dinner! But
It’s a profit warning for the current year
And as per everything I’ve tried to say the future at last is rosy! At last the board is confident that 2020 is the year CPX will become FCF positive- absolutely in line with what they guided in the 1-1 meetings. I strongly believe 4p is the low +/- a penny and reiterate 20p by year end as we start to look forward to a company that at long last is paying its way. Don’t get hung up looking for contract announcements the forward guidance tells you they are in the bag.
As I said a good dinner means treat this with the proverbial but I think we can now relax.

I absolutely think it is Woodford related...I completely agree that his selling 10% of his 30 odd% raises very little cash...so agree its unlikely to be him...but for a day trader or hedge fund its a cheap shot unless news released in the very near future...who in all honesty hasnt look at any equity holding and as the profit goes from 75% to 50% thinks bugger I better sell some...its human instinct...despite the belief that it has plenty more upside...not long now...remember director buying at £2.35 before the last results were released...but a bit of nerve holding and maybe less looking at the price every 5 seconds might be required!

Its 3% of his assets...he holds 35% of Reneuron. I think investors are easily swayed and hedge funds are not stupid...take a look at some of his holdings :
Stobart
Imperial Brands
Kier
Provident Financial
These have been aggressively sold maybe by him, maybe by hedge funds anticipating him selling...I'm sure they'll have a go at Reneuron as its a tightly held stock and liquidity isnt great...but for those of us who believe, it will be an opportunity to add...
Just a point re liquidity...I was lucky enough to work in the city in 2008/09...and the cry 'sell when you can, not when you have to' holds so very true...as one remarked NW is fighting for his reputation here..but don't cry too much, he's made a very good living for himself and his investors, even if the last year or 2 has seen the star extinguished.

...or is there a persistent buyer or buyers feeling that 4p (sigh) is the low? Quite sociable volume gone thru over the past few sessions...
for the next series of straw clutching, please tune in tomorrow :-)

No Rene is held in Patient Capital...and most definitely not in equity income which does what it says on the tin ‘provides income from equities’...he’s had a tough run and might be compared to Tony Dye in 2000 who was legendarily short Tech and cost his funds 100s of basis points of performance but was proven right in the long term but not before he’s lost his job! It’s often said the market can remain irrational much longer than you can stay solvent!!
Read thru to Reneuron- I have no doubt short term traders and hedge funds will be picking thru his holdings and shorting the next stock he will have to sell. But I’m not sure this little company will be one of them! Not when news could drop any day that will have the ability to completely re-rate it.

I'm not sure we can quite say 'started buying cheap shares' when they own 12%+ of the company now...I imagine a man with 1/2 a brain will be able to work out their average 'in' price but it will be way above here...(know that feeling)...i bought a few more earlier this week (a fool and his money and all that) but there doesn't seem to be a shortage of stock about...
For those of an interest in technicals, we need to close above 4.30 (20 day moving average or dma) and then 4.85 (50 dma) to even begin the upmove...3.85 remains key support and below that I'm afraid 2.85...only a breach of 7.75 which is where the 200 dma resides will enable us to start breathing easier...its been a tough year and our toupe wearing buffoon in the white house isn't making it easier with his trade tariffs going off all over the place...bon chance all.

Dear Afe, Havent heard from you for a while. There are a couple of slight flaws in your argument. Tosca is a $4bn fund which has been active in (mainly) the UK market for many years now and is run by an extremely erudite chap called Martin Hughes. He is perceived as being one of the sharper brains about and is happy to sit on positions for many years whilst they come 'right'. There is no chance in god's green earth that he would buy 70% of SLE and then join forces with another company and force what would effectively be an MBO at a sharp discount to the small shareholders all in cost. For the very simple reason that the press would have a field day and his reputation would be in tatters and his $4bn fund would see outflows of almost all of it in the following days. Luckily London is not the Wild West (or Nigeria) and whilst AIM can be privy to some pretty poor behaviour this is one trade that won't happen.
I think you have to face it - Suntrust no longer own their shares and thus your hoped for lawsuit has even less chance of any airtime (going I reckon from 1% to no chance) - and your hope for a sharp decline in value of the company becomes less likely by the day.
Still think we get either a new tender announcement or dividend soon - by my maths, with the Eroton $$$ on tap, SLE is likely yielding 25% at these levels.

Am I alone in thinking this is the last of Sun Trust's holding? They had 71.5mm shares and sold 47.25mm to Midwestern...leaving 24 odd mm...we'll see I guess, but I truly don't think any market maker will be shorting stock in this size...question is who's the buyer? Tosca again? Hold onto one's shares methinks...they are a precious commodity it seems! And the company thinks they are cheap at 45p....:-)

LW - you are right - missing the word 'dont'....apologies...eg I think we need a confirmatory statement from Equinor...

Whilst I agree with all that is written about the absurdly low valuation, i do think we are missing out on why we are valued here...namely that the market is saying JOG has cash, tax credits and indeed a decent holding in Verbier...but it cannot get THAT oil out of the ground by itself so needs Equinor or A.N.other to help...and it can have plenty of cash on the balance sheet but until it has income to pay the wages and keep the lights on then that cash balance will just decline by the day. I think if we get a green light from Equinor that its here to stay (on a decent 3-D mapping) or a +ve result on Buchan, then we are likely stuck with said low valuation. Weirdly it maybe that JOG is a much better and safer buy at £1.20 than it is here...written by someone who owns a lot of JOG shares and feels a bit like Winterfeld in GoT! Overrun by nasties....

I struggle to understand the fascination of whether a trade gets depicted as either a sell or buy. As discussed, there is no chance in god's green planet that nay market maker will take down a trade of this size 'on-risk'. There is too much potential danger for being long or shot a stock like Reneuron with all the potential news that may break any day. Therefore, for every seller there must be a buyer. So perhaps the best bet is to think 'someone or someones sold a large clip of shares and someone or someones bought it'...i would think differently if the market moved 20% but given the fact that it barely budged I'd suggest a broker did a good job and lined up a buyer and a seller...and got paid handsomely for so doing.

I can answer that - the whole point is to enable the market-maker to avoid letting the market know if he has taken a lot of stock down (bought) or is short (sold)...so there is a capability to delay reporting trades if it is deemed to be market-moving...however, in my (very!) limited experience none of these market makers ever take much risk in AIM stocks as we all know information is rarely available to all at the same time on AIM!