Member Info for PC01

I've just bought 15k shares at 193....

This tells you JOG shares are basically all held by private individuals...with the exception of Legals and SVM. I do expect that we will see more investors of this type appear after the summer holidays when typically analysts and fund managers look at ideas for the coming quarter...

Dick I am with u. Whilst I own a few other eggs I have a lot of JOG and bought more last week. A fellow optimist suggested this is a once in a generation chance with not much downside - derisked is the word he used - and the very great potential of huge outsized returns. The longer we stay down here the more I will buy.
Ps I too bought some Burford last week but think likely that storm has more to blow.

Reading the MW attack on Burford the accusation was much more about financial irregularities...there is nothing to suggest that Rene is doing anything like that! Always a chance as discussed ad nauseam that people think Woodford is a forced seller but Reneuron in one release could unlock huge value...so a risky trade methinks!

Seems like some stock about ...I’ve bought 5000 shares to replace some top slicing done ...

Its an interesting thought...the problem is shareholders get all upset by the issue of options and share grants...we also get upset when our SP fails to grow (or shrinks!!)...when I invested here, what 2 1/2 years ago, I had a 5yr horizon. We are 1/2 way through that period and whilst I have posted on here that I have an end of 2019 year 20p target, I concede that the conversion of interest > orders > ££ would appear to be slower than hoped / expected / desired. The company expects to FCF +ve by end of Q1 next year, whereupon I would expect this SP to be considerably higher given the order flow etc that we should expect. We might then concede that AK is paid about right!

I note with interest the ongoing Share sales ...and wonder who is buying those shares, as no market maker will be holding onto any shares for longer than he needs to in these febrile times...(not just for equities but for oil, rates, gold etc)...but i need help - more than normal (!!) and wondering if anyone can help...as per the SLE website :
As of 11th July 2019, San Leon Energy had 455,622,127 ordinary shares in issue. It had 506mm but bought back 50mm in the tender.
Shares in issue but not in public hands: 395,033,180 (86.7%)
Of the 395mm therefore in the 'public domain', it says :
Tosca own 326mm and MWP 59mm (385mm)...leaving 10mm free float? But there were 30mm shares that were tendered that were not bought...so how do we only have a 10mm free float...also :
It says Oisin owns 9.5mm ...so the questions I have are :
are OF shares considered not to be part of the free float? Either way, my calculations suggest there are very few shares about unless someone is shorting (seems brave but global SP down / OIL down and as we have all said, plenty of risks in the region)...but I would be very surprised if Tosca or MWP were prepared to lend out their shares...so am pretty sure whilst Afa and his friends would like us believe that there are shorts, it seems too damn risky...
As i said, anyone able to help this bear with a small brain solve the missing equity conundra much appreciated.

maybe...tho good to see 2 x 25k blocks go thru today which look remarkably like said trades.

...always wanted 'lucky' rather than 'good' generals. The second largest shareholder in today's disaster that is Burford is our friend Mr Woodford, who owns 9.5% of the company. That's another £100mm (yep £100mm or almost twice reneuron's market cap) that he's lost for his shareholders who can't get out.

You don't need positive news for this share to rise...that's the whole point...it is and remains completely mispriced. And will be even when it doubles from here. Sorry to appear like one of those dreaded 'rampers'...but a £45mm mkt cap is covered by cash and tax losses.

There's v little doubt in my mind that Woodford continues to sell. His reputation has gone, as others commented he refuses to let investors to get out of his fund, whilst still charging them fees and at the same time selling down his stake in Patoent Capital without informing the board that he was doing....its a real pain but likely a shortlived one in my view as longer term (and I think there are plenty of us in this share who know what that means) we believe the fundamentals will win. I still find it utterly extraordinary that the company's brokers have not tried to organise a trade sale. Find out how much he wants to sell. And go and speak to a few funds in the space with a good story to tell. Be much more simple. But then hey what do I know. More bought again today at 197, will buy more with a 180 handle if it gets there.

Summertime etc...just going thru my old notes for why i like this company...
Market cap at £2 = £65mm.
9th April 2019 - ReNeuron will receive £6.0 million (US$7.9 million) on entering into the
Agreement, up to £6.0 million (US$7.9 million) in near-term operational milestones
and up to £8.0 million (US$10.5 million) in future regulatory milestone payments.
In addition, post-launch profit threshold milestone payments are due at a rate of
5% of annual net profits derived from the licensed products in the year the relevant
net profit milestones are exceeded, leading to total estimated milestone payments
of £80.0 million (US$104.8 million) provided all milestones and profit thresholds
are successfully met. Shares rally from £1.60 to intra-day high of £2.30
11th April 100k shares bought by directors (insiders) at £2.30 area
Over the past 3 months we have had people hired to grow out cooperations a la Fosun, we've had options granted exercisable when the SP doubles or more...etc etc...we've seen quite a lot of M&A in the sector, with huge multiples paid for clinical success stories.
The only bad news I can find is Master Woodford and his 'forced' selling of some of his stake, which has been an unnecessary buggeration and distraction to all. The £ is on its knees vs the $, the SP has fallen from £3.20 to £2, so in absolute terms for a $$ buyer, Reneuron is close to 50% cheaper to buy today than it was 3 months ago. So as the old adage goes, if you like it so much, best you buy some more. So I will! Good luck all.

No one has explained to me...in words of one syllable...so idiots like me can understand...quite how JOGs SP can stand at £2.30 pre Verbier results, when the very best we could ever have hoped for was a 125mm boe result...of which we'd have got 17% (= 21.25mm boe)...and yet when we win, through hard work, good diligence, luck, call it what you will, a minimum of 50mmboe and the SP is 15% lower. Dick, I hear all you say about time and analyst work, but markets are typically much more efficient than this, even in quiet summer months.
There's nothing for it, just going to have to buy some more...which I have done.
Oh one other point...which Dick makes which I do think is truly relevant...if you look at the great hopes of Hurricane or Sirius Minerals, the absolute amount of shares in issue does seem to be a major factor preventing SP gains. I'm sure the investment cases for both are quite compelling, but when you have billions of shares washing round, its very hard to garner a sustained price rise. Jog's 22mm shares in issue also, undeniably, help the investment case.

From a technical p-o-v, looks like major resistance lies between 255 and 260 (the highs seen in May 2018 and March 2019). Above that, its blue sky to 358, the high of October 2017. We are trading above all the 20/50 and 200 moving averages on the daily, weekly and monthly charts so that's all in our favour. Its worth thinking that even at £3.50, we'd have a market cap of c £85mm. With the best will in the world, 50mboe in a worst case scenario from Buchan at $5 / brl profit would still make the share price at that level eye wateringly cheap. The longer we stay down at these absurd valuations, the greater the risk private equity will look at the tax losses, cash in bank and assets and take it private. And given that your average investor on AIM would jump at the chance of a £5 bid, that's the risk here. But for gawd's sake, don't be conned by Aimoracle, Triggersaysdave and their like into selling your shares down here. You won't get them back without having to pay up for them.

The problem with statistics is that we can manipulate them for any particular gain. Our dear friend Afa likes to discuss San Lion's 20% decline since the 46p tender over the past 5 months whilst ignoring the 65%+ gain since this time last year....Callas talks about a 99% decline in SLE since the highs and how well Royal Dutch has done over the same time...well lets adjust the time for our gain...
Over the past 2 days RDSB shares are down a whopping 8% and SLE are up by a similar amount...so over the past 48 hours, SLE has outperformed RDSB by over 15%...However, i'd be accused of being ridiculous of choosing those 2 days as the basis for my comments...which I'm afraid CJ and Afa is a similar accusation that shall be thrown at you.
At no time - ever - have the optimists on this board, of which i am one ever suggested that SLE has been a great success for all those investors who piled in at the highs (and who piled in because, lets face it, they thought they'd make a ££ or 2...) ...however, since we bottomed out at 22p, for those of us lucky / skilful / delete as applicable to buy into this company at those levels, its been a pretty decent investment. We even got the chance to sell > 50% of our investment at 46p.
That's all there is to it. To opine ad nauseam about dead cats and 99% losses for things that happened eons ago in terms of markets is wasting your and indeed everyone's time. All that matters for shareholders in SLE and indeed maybe the AFA-induced brave shorters is where it goes over the next 12 months. I'll wager - happily - with you Callas or you Afa that case of rather nice Felton Road Pinot that I'm owned from another poor departed soul on here that in 12 months time from today - so August 3rd 2020 that SLE shares will not only be above the 37.5p close of yesterday, but will be above the 46p buy back price and guess what - I will have been able to have sold my shares at my 55p target as well. How about it?

Dear Afa, I hate to do this to you, but needs must. On August 2nd 2018, San Lion (as u like to call it) closed at 22.19p. Since when it has reached the lofty heights of 46p (+107.3%) and is currently 37p bid (+ 66.75%). When Alaric says the company has performed extremely well over the past 12 months, I think the above numbers provide proof that even your myopic hate of all things pro-SLE will struggle to argue with. Now, you can pick n choose whatever dates to support your view. EG, from the 20th March 46p highs, we are indeed 20% lower. You could point out that in 2014 when the SP was in excess of £4 we have lost 90%. But as Alaric said - and I quote - 'the stock has performed extremely well over the past 12 months '- I think you might have the good grace to concede that point, however much we like to argue over other minutiae.
By the way, can you find another AIM Oil Co that has performed better in the last 12 months? Another point that Alaric has been making...again, likely to be a point lost on you and your fellow haters.

You are absolutely right TTT....if institutions were all seeing, all dancing brains of the universe then we'd have perfect markets. Quilter and many others would be the last to say they are as such. And I suggested, if they liked the stock at 10p, bought more in the 8.5p placing and can find nothing wrong with the company, then at 4-5p, the stock must be cheap on any metric they use. They will, however, be keeping a v close eye on Mr Kongats and CPX. And won't shy from asking harsh questions if this stock continues to underperform.

Its a cracking question! If you listen to the perma-bears who appear on here almost daily, then there are none and never will be. You'd be better off selling what you have, taking the 37p that's on offer and finding a safer home for your money.
However, for the more optimistic amongst us, of which I count myself one, we have in no particular order of preference -
4.5% of BarryRoe oil fields, based in the North Celtic sea. It is thought to hold between 100mm and 300mm barrels of oil.
Roughly 10% of a Nigerian Oil Co called Eroton, who own the OML 18 license in the Niger delta. It is thought to harbour c 300mm barrels of oil and a considerably larger quantity of gas.
We also have a substantial loan outstanding that has a substantial coupon attached, which is being worth c $150mm to SLE.

In addition to this, we have a shareholder who has spent no little time, effort and money to turn this company around. Martin Hughes at ToscaFunds owns over 70% of SLE, so you could say he has a view. The other significant shareholder is Mr Jite of MidWestern Petroleum, another serious player in the region who owns c 15%. Oisin Fanning, who is not much loved by the old shareholders of SLe (and can do little wrong in the eyes of people like me, who have only owned the shares for the last 18 months) recently spent quite a lot of ££ buying more shares at these levels, so you could say he has confidence for the future.
As you suggested, the company successfully tendered for $30mm of its shares, in which interestingly the major shareholders did not participate, except for Tosca who exercised a warrant they had (from a previous loan to SLE).
Upside - plenty with oil at this price and Eroton and friends doing what they can to prevent major pipeline fraud (a major risk when investing in Nigerian Oil Cos)...Downside - plenty, sadly. When dealing in countries like Nigeria, there is always an accident waiting to happen! So its not for widows, orphans and those of a nervous disposition. However, I like Tosca, I like Martin Hughes method of investing and believe if he gets his interests looked after, then mine will be well served as well. Hopefully that's a balanced view - :-)

Noix, absolutely no harm in pointing out flaws in my or anyone's posts...what I was trying to say - albeit I hear you (and was aware they had been planning the Buchan bid for sometime) was that their only 'cost' per se was their nimbleness and fleet of foot in getting the bid together and then getting the award from the OGA for which they didn't have to pay vast sums of money. It is rare in the world of business for a small company to be granted such an opportunity - we are truly fortunate to be invested in one that has had huge luck and no little skill in achieving the award.

Bullson - i think the numbers to which you point are exactly those upon which I have pinned my hat. The numbers are so outlandish that you don't really dare think them. But the maths seems pretty simple. This is a company valued at £45mm, with tax losses and cash of c £35mm. It has been given (rather weirdly but seemingly identical to Russian Kleptocracy) the keys to a door through which one can see a bare minimum of 57million barrels of oil. but the beauty of Buchan, as I see it and have been led to believe, is that it ties up the whole area including Verbier, Meribel and Cortina.
My major major concern is we get taken out way below longterm fair value.
Now I guess we run the risk of being accused of being outlandish 'rampers' and in no way different from the AimOracle or TSD who'd like to see the SP considerably lower (whether short or because they have missed the boat and want the chance to get in)...but as the legendary Dick-up-ham has been saying for some time, JOG looks like one of those chances that appear to an investor once in a lifetime. You pays your money and takes your chances...
Also a thought for Noggers - Apple shares have risen from $25 to $230...you could have bought and sold it many times - profitably - during those 9 years. But only 3 times have you seen a pullback that has given you a decent re-entry. What I guess I am saying, is yes you may have missed out on the £1.80 > £2.20 JOG move...but if we are right, this is going to £10+ and whether you buy at £1.80 or £2.50 will matter not a jot.
Happy hunting.