Member Info for PC01

Its a nice idea Dick - in the scenario you mention, would we then assume that JOG would literally sit back and enjoy the ride, watching Equnior and Cieco pick up the tab for all costs (Opex/CApex and every other X that arises). In which case, you would argue their cost of getting oil out the ground is effectively 0 and they would make $50/barrel on their share of what is in the ground? Then, as you suggest, they own 18% of 120mm x $50 = £900mm at current FX rates and assuming an oil px of $50/barrel. or £41/share. That works. Or am I missing the point (wouldn't be the first time!).

Slight rise in target px to £5.50...interestingly they have a range of scenarios where they do discuss a £26+ possibility.

MC - Fund managers are weird places...having worked amongst them for 30 years, i can tell you there may have been a multitude of reasons for their decision making - there might have been a change of fund manager, of analyst, of view on small co's, of views of oil co's...it might be some grand call from the top. It happens, sadly all the time. As dick says, its a good reminder why we should never get carried away when a supposedly 'great' investor gets involved...and very few have better reputations that L+G or Schroders...but it doesn't make them immune from making mistakes. Indeed it is usually because they manage so much money that they can afford to make mistakes...and indeed frequently do...so as the great dick says - every time he posts - DYOR and then you can only have yourself to blame (or pat on the back) when you get something right (or wrong)....

I think we r disagreeing about a few million barrels...so maybe a £ or 2 in ultimate destination (how many masts on the yacht??!)...fyi I managed to purloin an invite to the CMD in the city on 8th October when the info you suggest might be helpful to the cause should be made public!

On the 2nd April JOG shares closed at £2.28 (+/- where we are now) the day before Verbier news was announced, news that we were hoping at best estimates would have announced 125mm barrels of oil, of which JOG's share would have been 17% or 21.25mm barrels of oil. Now I appreciate we would have had guaranteed partners in Equinor and Cieco, so we would have had the financial muscle in place, but to this observer it seems quite amazing that we are at the same share price when we have :
114mm barrels of oil that we might well share with aforementioned business partners, of which we will likely keep 50% (67mm barrels) or 3x the best result that Verbier might have produced for us.
If we throw in potential oil in Verbier, Meribel and Cortina you can see why a few of us bang on about this SP being stupidly cheap.
Great we have bounce now to Pre Verbier announcement levels, but really we should be 2-3x above here. So absolutely no chance company lets itself be bought for < £10 methinks.

By someone knows something, do you mean that another person has had that light bulb moment and worked out that 120 million barrels of recoverable oil plus potentially 3x that in the neighbouring vicinity makes JOG shares, capitalised as they are at c £50mm rather cheap? Einstein is alive and kicking.

It does Chester, but I can't think of any time in recent history that this company's shares have run up without an announcement. Its been pretty leak-proof. We've come up 20% in 3 sessions and whilst those of us patient enough have been banging the drum saying 'its cheap' and 'no reason for it to be down here' and 'only Woodford selling stopping us from rallying'...this seems a whole new ball game. I like the idea of a stake builder personally...whether another fund or indeed the oppo...and if Woodford was the only seller and he's either done what he needed or wised up to the price action, then there's not a lot of stock about. Anyway, thoroughly enjoyable to watch and be part of!

These are all very fair and valid points...like all I would love a regular update on how we are doing (good for the soul) but equally I have spoken to many CEOs over the years and I think they are a bit like professional golfers...who when playing a round of golf have no idea as to their score...just want to score as best they can and add it up in the end. The last news we had was the court update (success) and prior to that the RNS inished with 'The rising level of sales enquiries, when considered together with our previously announced product development initiatives, gives the Board increasing confidence for the outlook for the next financial year and beyond.'...I'm not sure that Kongats feels the need to keep us informed...all is going well and if there was a marked change in outlook, he'd have to release the news (like MicroFocus did today)...its hard work being a CPX shareholder and the lack of newsflow makes the shares very illiquid. But I have seen nothing to suggest that I change my views. Still 20p target!

i have spent part of the morning reading the research from the 3 brokers who cover JOG...BMO / Arden and FinnCap...it's all pretty dull stuff but all to a man stick to the mantra of a £3-£5.50 (lowest to highest) price target...albeit modestly upgraded from their pre-Buchan announcement levels. I gather from a fellow investor that the meet n greets have started and that we have a capital markets day in early October in London where JOG should be telling all those with interest how they plan to finance getting the oil out.
My only concern was in the event that Equinor declined to take up the option, sending a message to the market that maybe the oil is hard to get out etc...however, the only interesting thing in the research that I read was the reminder that the North Sea is a hugely competitive place to do business and a farm out agreement would be easily achieved at highly competitive prices should Equninor decide to duck out.
So all good here I think. I think we will one day come in and see the SP sharply higher, whether that's because a new interested buyer has come to town or its because Equinor have shown their hand, I'm not sure. But these are in my opinion absurdly cheap levels to acquire shares in a small company with very big ideas.

Yep, it's looking very pretty. £2.30 bid now. Just need another £1 and then we are back to where I think we should be and can happily await the next set of news. But this buying seen over the past few days is certainly causing my antenna to start twitching!

and its nice to see the gradual rise in our SP...some good buying going on here which is no great surprise given all the hints that have been thrown at us over the past few weeks. It does fell that £1.85 is a pretty decent floor. There appears to be some chart resistance at £2.50, 32.80 and the spike highs of the year at £3.30 but it's all shaping up rather nicely for an autumnal rally back to more logical levels.

Matt that’s not exactly true! I bought 30k shares between £1.75 and £1.85 plus similar on spread on IG ( I have not been shy in telling people on here!)...which made what was already my largest investment much larger! So once the £2.10/2.15 level looked like resistance I took trading profits. I don’t blame anyone for trading this share what I don’t understand is why £2.15 proved to be the top...it’s still below the pre Verbier highs! Makes no sense at all ...

Today's award of 14mm barrels is equivalent to Verbier coming in at 82mm....

If you lived on planet mars and you came to earth today and someone sat you down and said :
There is this company that has just been awarded 14mm barrels of oil and the average profit for the company is between $5 and $10/barrel, our Martian friend, who is very clever at Maths having negotiated all the problems of getting from Mars to Earth would say 'excellent. that should make this company of which you speak worth something like $70 and $140mm. What other assets does it have?'And you say, well this is the strange thing - it has another 50mm barrels in a neighbouring field, 1 17% stake of a field that has at least 25mm barrels in it, the same stake in 2 other fields thought to hold another 3-60mm barrels in it, some cash and some DTAs.'
Ok, says our Martian friend, so lets discount all of that by 50% for ****s n giggles as it all sounds too good to be true but my martian calculator says this company of which you speak should be worth
$35mm for today's award
$125mm for the larger award the other day
$30mm for Verbier, Cortina and Meribel
So $175mm. With this strange thing called Brexit making your currency a bit weak, that is £145mm. And you can buy ithe company for £40mm at the moment? OK, where can I find a stockbroker to buy me some with my Martian dinars...
With apologies to all who read, but I think you get my gist!

I was away yesterday but read the RNS with some interest. It must be said, the company is doing all it can to tell us everything is proceeding in line or better than expectations - it really should not come as a shock if they confirm our hopes, which slightly worries me as I believe the current SP is well below fair value. I get the point re the massacre of Woodford's Bio techs so I guess the key is to remember Rome wasn't built in a day and provided you don't need an instant return on your investment, then all should be good here...have plenty and view any dips below £2 as an opportunity to add more.

Dear OS - I'm much more interested in your portfolio of equities that all rose by 12% on one day with the exception of CPX in one day...could you become my stock broker please. That's an amazing performance.

As per many previous posts, if you thought it was cheap at £2.20, then its a bargain here...if you have cash then spend it...I have been buying all the way down and just bought more at £1.76 and £1.78....if we slip lower, I'll buy more...there will come a day, I believe, when the market will want these shares off you again...just seems like not today nor tomorrow...if I'm missing something and this is the world's greatest con job, then all my fault, but valuing JOG at £39mm (as of today's market price) tells me more about market psychology than anything else. Remember there will be folk who bought at 60p, 70p, £1 etc who were hoping for instant gratification and would rather sell today at £1.75 to lock up some of the profit and hope to get back in rather than see it drift back to cost in the absence of news. Patience dear fellow investors, and hats off to those who said it'll drift back to £1.75 when we were at £2.20...great call.

I think that's very simple to answer. The stock has lost momentum, there was a large seller who was cleared out I think at 190. It would seem there are no fresh buyers until the next positive news is released and AIM OIL stocks are pretty friendless. Like all good things in life, this will require patience. For the optimists amongst us, it matters not whether we reach our fanciful targets (mine is at least £12) today, this year or next. For me, if I am right, it will be a life changing investment given I believe this is a once in a generation trade. But I may well be wrong - if it was so obvious, we wouldn't be trading at levels which value the oil we now 'own' at c 50c / barrel! So, if you are like me, look behind the sofa for every last ££ you can afford to lose and buy the shares as they get cheaper. +ve newsflow will make buying shares at these levels look a very sensible trade.

I really dont know - someone likes something tho!

Yep, a nice close...still think we are the best part of a £1 below where we should be as we get closer to news...its quite tough being invested in here knowing that a certain fund manger in disgrace might at anytime sell a clump of stock...so well done all who are holding (or idiots like me who have been adding!) and fingers crossed good news is on the way.