Member Info for PC01

Morning ajax, i think there is a large buy order being worked at the moment. If the quoted sells are correct (and I have my doubts about the trade reporting) that's quite a lot of 10k sells coming out and no sign of a buyer ...so do expect a large trade ticket to come out in the days ahead...but as per many chats, we're treading water here. I was messaged earlier by a large holder suggesting best news for JOG is Equinor passing on their option as gives them much more ability to farm out the stake on much more favourable terms...so kinda hoping for an RNS where Equinor decline the option, SP falls (will be short-term painful) and then load the boat up. As ever, best laid plans and all that means I've no chance!

I'm not sure its a bad use of time or money tbh...they seem to have some pretty decent language in their patents that means larger com's like TDK have come to heel rather than fight in the courts...and we know from their spring presentation (god was it all that long ago?!) that ££ spent in fighting the patents has been repaid in multiples. No doubt a distraction re management time, but without the IP CPX kinda have nothing methinks, so needs to be defended without any thought. No other option.

We might have to agree to disagree...its a lovely argument to have tho. £7 works well. £42 works better :-). Somewhere in between spot on. But let's get to £7 first!

Without wishing to be too rude Rookie1, I thank my lucky stars that its not you (or me) running JOG and being prepared to sell the company for £150mm, when with the best will in the world, the company is worth at least 4x that amount. That said, if (and god willing when) its worth £150mm, I also will be delighted!

And apologies for being dumb...re Amerisur...P1 reserves are 15.04mm, P1 and P2 total 21.80mm and P1, P2 and P3 total 31.13mm. So we don't add 'em all up! Makes the maths even more idiotic. Total P1, 2 and 3 reserves at 1/4 of our number and our market cap 1/4 of theirs. Ho hum!

...comparisons are invidious. I note that Amerisur, an oil co that drills in the uncertain world of Columbia and who's SP has drifted between 20p and 12p for th elast few years...curerntly at 17p as its the subject of some vague bid interest. market Cap is £205mm. It produced a reserves updated today for its bidders to look at :
Total Company reserves estimated to be 15.04 MMBO 1P, 21.80 MMBO 2P and 31.13 MMBO 3P (as at 31 July 2019), with 1.2 mmboe produced in 2019 to end July. To be clear 'The term 1P is frequently used to denote proved reserves, 2P is the sum of proved and probable reserves and 3P the sum of proved, probable and possible reserves. The best estimate of recovery from committed projects is generally considered to be the 2P sum of proved and probable reserves.' That's the market definition not mine by the way.
Call me old fashioned but JOG has 120mm barrels of P1 reserves and as I wrote yday they believe c 300m of P1,2 and 3. So its P1 reserves are almost double Amerisur's P1, 2 and 3 combined. And JOG is valued at 1/4 of Amerisur. Really????? And there I was thinking markets are efficient?

Seems like quite decent volume going through and SP unchanged...makes me think, completely without any confidence of being right mind you, that someone is working Mr WoodFord out of his position...not sure when he would next need to tell the market how much he has reduced by, am guessing below the 29.9% threshold...but at least the broker is finding buyers which is comforting...not long now I guess.

All we got from the meeting was his annual salary was v light (c 30k) but plenty of options and such if he made a success of it. I note with interest a lot of shares changing hands...someone still has appetite to buy...can understand the seller selling...still not long now...until the next wait...one day, as Del Boy might have said, we'll all be 'millunairs' but I'd love just a nugget of info to get a teeny weeny bit more excited!

It is true mclean...you really shouldn't get upset with the witterings of the depressed. Indeed, I strongly suggest you ignore them in the way that you'd ignore the wild man walking down the high street claiming the end is nigh. it might be, tho sadly if it is, then everything else is rather irrelevant...like Callas and co...leave them be, you have seen over the past year or 2 that like all bullies they disappear when the going gets tough but love coming back at the merest sight of weakness. What will be will be here...we are either right, SLE is a cash cow and we'll get to drink a few in celebration or we are wrong whereupon we'll get to drink a few in commiseration. But the more airtime you give Callas, B7, S8, Afa and co the more they will breathe. What is truly laughable is if they believe they can manipulate the SP - which I'm afraid for them and for us will look after itself.

Now children - concentrate on news not petty squabbles - I do like Benitz's comments today, whilst nothing new just confirm points we know :
Andrew Benitz, CEO of Jersey Oil & Gas, commented:
"We are very pleased to have now formally completed our recently announced block awards in the 31 SLR. These awards have leapfrogged JOG from being an exploration focused business into an Operator of a major new area hub
development project, with estimated discovered mean recoverable resources net to JOG of in excess of 120 million barrels of oil equivalent ("mmboe"), together with significant upside potential to tie in further resources within the GBA. This represents a very exciting new chapter for JOG and we look forward to working with all our stakeholders as we progress the Field Development Plan ("FDP") for this transformational project."
I like in no particular order the reminder of 120mm barrels (to reiterate at $10/barrel profit = £1bn profit. Jog market cap is £50mm)
I like 'significant upside potential' - again company thinks there might be as much as 340mm barrels in this area...
And I like 'all our stakeholders'...that's you, and I and all the investors who get cross with each other and its the senior partners, like Equinor...
First oil 2024, that's how patient you may need to be but I think the SP will much sooner start to reflect the potential here.

It is a truism that this board has been populated by the fortunate who saw value long after it had been destroyed, the unfortunate who saw a great majority of their investment wiped out long before the fortunate ones got involved and the morbidly depressed for whom only the complete bankruptcy of San Leon will suffice (and to be honest, I really don't understand their malevolent obsession, but then I don't understand a lot of things!!). And I think we are all banging our collective heads against various brick walls. However, as a few of us have pointed out, more than a few times, buying shares down here at a 18p discount to the last tender price might well be worth a bob or 2, given the company must be obliged to inform the market should its financial situation (aka non repayment of loan) have markedly changed from expectation.
So its rather nice to see volume well over 1mm shares today as excess stock gets cleared up. I might even have to buy a few more to add to the ones I bought yesterday...

All very true, tho in fairness SLE hasn't been selling for just one day! It would also be fairly unlikely if there was a news leak that the Top2 shareholders wouldnt be aware...given that's 85% of the shares accounted for it leaves a few small digits to point...no, i think i prefer the idea of someone being stopped out (maybe he owned SXX and MATD thus compounding his pain...)...anyway, I paid 28.6p for 50k as a first dip...we'll see.

8th October is the company's CMD (capital market's day) in the city. It was supposed that the company would know by then what was happening....thus the 2 dates...

I think I can answer for Craig...he is the new generation of investors for whom patience is a word they have never understood. I think he wants a higher SP like all of us (well apart from Trigger who is still smarting from the 60p to £2 rally) but he wants it NOW...not tomorrow or next week or god forbid next month, but NOW and when other oil stocks are rallying and this one isnt it means JOG is ****, even tho we have plenty of proven oil reserves and no debt (anyone with a care to understand what an over-leveraged balance sheet can do to an oil co take a peek at Premier Oil who's SP has fallen 75% over the past few years...hurrah it bounced 10% yesterday so let's celebrate, huh...)...for CRAIg and all the other short term traders, a bounce today to £2.30 will be met with celebration and a fall to £2 with despondency. Its a truism of all investments, patience is required and a little luck. For those of us in JOG (for me its since 1/17) we've had good days, great days and shockers...but the journey has only just started. The oil we have and the oil we might find is more than enough to see this share provide for a very comfortable retirement. Just not today...nor tomorrow...and probably not next week...or month....but one day, when you are least expecting it...there we are philosophy over...now where's the SP opening :-)!?!

Abatt, I certainly cant help you on the 'clever'ones bit...but I think there is a risk that one gets caught up in the micro arguments that means you lose sight of the big picture...
The risks to JOG I think are a collapse in the OIL price which OPEC and all the shale producers in the US kinda need to keep above $50...but should oil return to $20 (I think was the low in 2001?) then JOG and every other oil producer / explorer without a healthy cash balance will be facing v hard times and its likely the global economy will be in depression whereupon we'll probably have other things to worry about...
Equinor might not sign on the dotted line...this would cause a short term decline, probably quite sharp, before the market realised they are not the only suitor in town, but I wouldnt be surprised if the market idiotically offered you stock, albeit briefly, well below £2...Dick's truck mentioned below might be needed if this occurred.
Brexit - IMO - is a sideshow. the sun will still get up in the morning if we leave or if we stay (I just wish we'd get on with deciding what we're going to do) and the UK will still be one of the largest economies in the world, with low unemployment and relatively low tax rates. In the event of brexit, then expect aggressive corporation tax cuts to mitigate against potential tariffs but remember our largest trading partner need us just as much as we need them.
So i think re JOG...as I have said ad infinitum, do not get hung up on todays or tomorrows price action. The end prize is whats at stake here. And if you have a few £££ for that day the market lets you value JOG at what you might think are unsustainably cheap levels, then close your eyes and buy more. But if you need £3 by monday, this might not be the one for you...unless there's news :-)

i dont think its impossible...just need a little luck...but let's say oil stays at $50/barrel as a core view over the next 5 years. We know JOG has 22mm shares.
We know it currently owns 122 million barrels of oil that can be got out of the ground and is interested in trying to grow that acreage through its options in Meribel, Cortina et al...I think the potential of all their assets adds up to 300mm barrels, so for the sake of argument lets haircut that 50% for oil that might not be there, or might be hard to get out the ground etc...
150mm with costs to get that lot out the ground of c $35. so $15/barrel profit.
150mm x 15 = $2.25bn = £1.84bn.
They keep 1/2 for themselves = £922mm.
divided by 22mm (shares outstanding) = £41.91/share.
As i am not greedy, I'll take my profit 1/2 way and join Ajax in the escort bar!
This is what is so silly about a £2.25 SP...the numbers above are not really by any great stretches of imagination. Sure we might need a capital raise if Equinor decides it doesn't want a free lunch at the greatest michelin starred restaurant in the planet, but I think one should ignore the daily 5-10p moves and concentrate on the bigger prize that's at stake here.

Your 'we're all waiting for' news might well be different to mine! if Equinor take up the option, then I think we all agree that the SP should trade higher, tho no doubt nowhere near what we believe or hope for, given its current level is laughably low. The news I'm waiting for is when I get a message from my broker that the order to sell my 200,000 shares at £24 has been achieved. I'm not expecting that news for a little while yet!

Agreed - just paid £1.92 for v small...will buy more again at £1.85

Small delay to stroke (3-6 months). CTX seems on track. Stifel out with research saying no news is good news.
'ReNeuron remains on track to report clinical data in October from 12 patients in the ongoing Phase IIa trial assessing its hRPC cells for the treatment of retinitis pigmentosa. Positive data holds the potential to spark a significant re-rating of the stock, in our view, and we remain optimistic about the prospects on the assumption that no news continues to be good news - i.e. no further stock market updates from the open label trial indicates that patients have been responding in a broadly similar manner to that observed so far and in keeping with expectations from an exploratory Phase IIa trial. As a reminder, those responses from the first three patients were dramatic, with significant improvements in visual acuity, beyond expectations and what would typically be required by the regulators to demonstrate efficacy. Meanwhile, the CTX chronic stroke disability trial, PISCES III, is recruiting patients slower than expected, with results delayed by 3-6 months into 1H21. We view CTX as an option at this point and remain focused on the retinal programme as the near-term value driver, and hence reiterate our Buy rating.'
They still have a £6.90 price target. Mine is considerably higher!

Well done Ajax! This sort of thing has happened to me a few times and quite often I use the opportunity to remind myself why I put the trade on in the first place. Do I still believe in the trade, would I buy it now if I was investing for the first time now, can I afford to lose 65% of my investment and how do I react to the 'paper' loss...eg does the idea of making a return on my investment pale into insignificance if I my portfolio was to have another bad reaction. We live in very fragile times, with bond yields around the world telling us that all is not well. You've been sent a lifeboat and my only advice to you is to look back at how you felt when all was lost and if that feeling really was too awful to contemplate again, then adjust your risk accordingly. The investments you mention are - with the exception of ECO - micro stocks with market caps below £50mm. With such stocks come great risks and sometimes no little rewards. Sorry to sound like a dullard but money is so hard to make and so easy to lose, it needs handling with the most precious kid gloves! But well done again for holding on!