Member Info for PC01

Sadly I think you are clutching at straws...its very quiet in the city now, volumes very light with a few thousand shares moving prices. Think we are all best served with enjoying Xmas with our loved ones and coming back, starting again in 2020. I think next year is a huge year for the company and hopefully a profitable one for its shareholders.

that the Woodford holding outside of Patient Capital has now all been sold (that's my understanding) and that the WPCT holding now resides with Schroders who i am assuming have been hired by the directors of Patient Capital to manage the fund. EG, the stock that was held in the income fund has now been sold so that investors can get their money back and the remaining holding should now be held....provided of course that Schroders are happy to hold Reneuron shares. That will mean a new fund manager getting up to speed with the company and being comfortable holding - what - 15%? Should be good news as one major stock overhang gone.

That the Boxing Day sales have started early here - just bought more at 151 and 153. I’m either v v wrong and missing something or these are to be bought and put away for a v long time!

Why do we desperately need updates? Firstly, the OIL has been there for thousands of years and isnt going anywhere. If you read the company presentation, it clearly shows a timeline :
Appraise
Select
Define
Execute
Produce
With the FDP submission due in 2022. We would all like a JOG Xmas present, but the above is 5 years of work to first oil, during which time the company plans to build a new hub (or be part of a new hub) in the Central North Sea. JOG and its directors will not be rushed into anything - as far as I am concerned the need to do a thorough appraisal from the 3-d Seismics just to understand how much oil they might have. yes its disheartening to see the SP trading at a level where the OGA award counts for nothing but truly, if ever patience was required, this is it. My opinion is we have to try and ignore the day to day volatility of a few punters getting in or out and focus on the bigger prize that's at stake here.

I don't agree with the idea of manipulation per se - the stock simply got destroyed by fears of Woodford selling...since when, despite news which we supporters/optimists like to believe has been favourable, there simply has not been the follow through enthusiasm. I do think we will see other Fosun-type deals which will remove all thought of further cap raising and would remind investors that this company has struck the option vesting prices for the directors at a substantial premium to the current SP and not at the usual give-away dilutionary ones we tend to see, especially in AIM. I have absolute faith that the board are on side and have our and their interests fully aligned. We'd all much rather see the SP at £3 so our portolios looked a little perkier but in reality I think nothing has changed, indeed the outlook is much clearer than when we spiked to £3. We will see those highs and higher in the months and years to come.

HI Cornish - on this I am certain. There was a book 'done' of £2.75mm at 3p. There was a further order of £250k at 3p that had to be done outside of the placing. Which left 250k for you and I and other PIs to buy. To reiterate, i am 100% sure they are offering a further £250k to private investors because of the stick they received last time when PIs did not get the chance to participate. If PIs don't take up the slack, then so be it, £3mm done at 3p and yes, that's plenty to get the deal done, the plant moved, the engineers educated etc etc.

...then I think the £ 2022 and £ 2025 bonds would not be trading between at 85 and 89p in the ££. The 2022 yield 11.75% here. If there was a thought that Tullow would default, or would struggle then this debt would drop in half from here. So the equity is being driven by the normal fear / shorts (enjoying it) and maybe hedging by debt holders and the potential for a rights issue. But seems like they have plenty of headroom with a £1bn RCF (which can be drawn down) and FCF of £150mm with oil at $60 (and OPEC last week suggesting that they will cut production further). Its risky, but I think its a good toe-dipper here.

I think that's the key - buying in the tender is investing in the company and physically giving them money...buying in the open market at 3p or lower (not sure much stock available below 3p?) is purely buying shares but your investment will not go into the company's coffers...i think it closes on the 16th...like most I'm b%%%% deep here and whilst I do believe that this is a cracking deal, am also cogniscent this company has failed for some time to deliver what it has suggested it might. I do think the stars are aligning but weirdly it might have been easier to have bought more stock had the company been doing well at 12p....

Good to hear Clive...i think this board has been one of the more harmonious ones that I read...generically well-informed and well-intentioned...agreed on your 3-yr minimum thesis and like most, i have very high expectations for the company and therefore the SP. I do like the fact that the options granted are all at higher levels rather than the normal dilutionary ones we often see. Fingers crossed.

Been out the country for a few days - but a few things ...as I understand it, £2.75mm has been confirmed, as well as a further £250k that could not for legal reasons buy in the original placement. So £3mm done. A further £250k for sale to PIs...it does make me laugh tho - the howls of outrage when the last raise was done at 8p and PIs were not given the chance...now the PIs can play along at 3p and its all teeth sucking and oooo, not sure, the SP at 2.9p etc etc...
Re PRs comments last night...whether one understands what PE stands for or not, I simply cannot comprehend how buying manufacturing equipment for less than 5% of cost to enable the company to make c 60% of margin on the whole trade rather than 6% on the IP is an amazing piece of work by CPX and AK. It will - in one fell swoop - transform the company from a loss making one to a profitable one. I agree patience will be needed, but the fact that Murata are standing by to ensure the transition is a smooth one is good enough for me. never did get my 20p by end of year...so what do I know, but think we are a much safer bet today than we have been over the past 3 years I have been invested.

I agree Chester, not sure what's not to like...cash coming in from Fosun, many buns in the oven, increased number of patients etc etc...Stifel's research as usual very optimistic :
Summary
Alongside 1H20 results which are in-line with our expectations, ReNeuron has announced important updates to the trial protocols for its two clinical assets. Based on encouraging data thus far with the retinal programme (hRPC) the Phase IIa efficacy portion of the ongoing trial is being extended to enable longer-term follow-up data on a larger group of patients in 2020. With a more robust data set in hand this could subsequently enable a single pre-approval study for the product. As for CTX in chronic stroke disability, in order to encourage and accelerate recruitment into the trial, the treatment-to-placebo ratio will increase to 2:1 from 1:1, enabling more patients to receive active therapy (c. 84 vs 55 patients), while also widening the treatment window to 6-24 months post-stroke (vs 6-12 months previously). ReNeuron ended 1H FY20 (30 Sep 2019) with £21.3m in cash (vs our £21.5m estimate), sufficient to generate more meaningful data from the retinal programme by mid-2020. We continue to believe ReNeuron is a misspriced stock with an attractive risk-reward profile, and therefore reiterate our Buy rating and £6.90 buy target...the only thought I have is whether we have a further fund raise before we do another Fosun-type fund raise...but even if we do, I'm pretty relaxed...the stars I think are aligning very nicely.

Ha! What I do know is that because of that buying we have the most beautiful looking bullish engulfing pattern in the weekly chart! If our new best friend wants to spend another £450k next week he gets my vote!!

Jeffrey - they couldn't answer any qs yday because everyone was an insider and the deal hadn't closed. They wanted the deal to close on Wednesday but I think the large order from a new investor needed confirming. You can't just break the rules in order to keep everyone happy, there are protocols etc that have to be regarded.
I'm very surprised the SP hasn't rallied today - at the cost of £3mm the company has bought $14 of annual repeatable and growable revenue with a margin of c 60% with full access to Murata's clients. It can now compete with other producers in terms of scale having bought machinery that would have cost $50-100million for peanuts. Murata want CPX to succeed, which si why they are continuing to work with CPX in terms of training. Utterly bizarre that the market hasn't realised this, but what the hell do I know! I'm guessing after years of hope, the market now wants real physical cashflow...and I can't say I blame them. But I do think CPX is now much more of a t/o candidate with its IP and now production capability. Anyway good luck all - i'm personally delighted that I can now lock these shares away comfortable that in 2-3 years time they will be substantially higher.

'CAP-XX will lose the royalty revenue associated with Murata’s sales that represents around A$800k of gross profit per annum. This will be replaced by 60% gross margin on revenue of c. A$13m, once the capacity is fully operational, equivalent to c. A$8m of gross profit per annum on the basis of Murata’s current revenue. There is scope to scale this further.'
So there u have it...£3mm to buy a $100mm piece of kit...to make $8mm/annum within 18 months...
before you think its too good to be true...the kit was basically worthless to anyone except a company like CPX and once Murata had decided that a company with many billions in revenues didn't need to focus on such a small part of its overall offering, the rationale behind why seller and buyer agreed a price became v clear.

'Murata’s manufacturing assets to be acquired cover all aspects of the process from coating to final device testing. It has a current maximum capacity of over 6.7m units per annum. Using an indicative selling price of A$3.40 per unit, this equates to about A$22.8m per annum of potential revenue. With a target gross margin of 60%, this suggests a potential gross profit of c. A$14m per annum. To put this into context, Murata’s supercapacitor sales are currently c. 4m units per annum (c. A$13m in revenue). '

So this deal has been in the works for a while and a few of us have been over the wall for 10 days or so. Its a very impressive transaction - basically spending c £2mm to buy Murata's production facility (which would cost £100-150 million) and move it to Oz. Instead of receiving a 6% royalty, CPX now makes 60% margin on the sales, currently 14mm but capable of 21mm. In one fell swoop, CPX has finally done a transaction that will enable it to become FCF +ve, something that has been out of reach for some time. It will also enable it to become more competitive in pricing. They talk of it being a transformational deal - which it is and this time you, the private investor, gets the chance to buy stock at the same price (3p) as those who you have felt in the past have been given the opportunity before you. At last a deal to hold one's hat on.

I think all is well in the land of JOG, except for those who want to see the £20 - £40 Sp target hit TODAY...and of course those who are short and try their hardest to spread fear. Nothing worse than no news and a drifting SP to test the soul, its much easier to hold when its rallying! So Dick, re the hirings, when JOG had their CMD, the one thing Mr Benitz said to me was the quality of CV landing on their door mat was of the highest order as the industry itself is very aware of what JOG is trying to achieve. I personally believe all is in order, the SP will look after itself as and when news flows. Of course, we'd like it higher but as you say, if 1/3 of the country is prepared to vote for a marxist revolution, then not everyone sees the world from my (and probably your!) POV!

PP - love your enthusiasm...however as my old classics teacher used to say ‘Festina Lente’
....
Or in the great film Force 10 from Navarone when a Edward Fox is blowing up the damn...just wait!

I personally think the great british public are no fools...and they know a charlatan when they see one...problem is they seem to have 2 to choose from (!!) and the 2 women (Swinson n Sturgeon) are no better...tis an election truly for 'can I vote for none of the above?'...but there is a v clear choice of how you view the future and the communist state has never held much appeal for me. Anyway...Ajax...you will have plenty of gravy n turkey on your plate...one day! you might even have gold-rimmed plates if all comes thru as we hope.

There is a lot of chatter by optimists and pessimists, bulls n bears, long term holders and short term punters all of whom in a democracy are allowed to espouse views. We have Dicks long held view of the value that is inherent here, one to which I happily ascribe and have invested a life changing amount of money. You have Robs room who tries to suggest he is a holder (I've been in for 3 years and hold 5k but its going to a £1, so sell up chaps before its too late and buy some of these other beauties I have for you)...you have Ajax who lives and dies by the sword etc etc...I simply do not believe that where JOG's SP ends up will be in anyway predicated by the witterings of any of us.
We can heartily disagree with Robs room prognosis of luck and no one else wants the oil but the fact is that the SP at £1.60 tells us all the market doesn't believe JOG can get the oil out of the ground. I have never seen a situation in 30+ years of mucking about in the markets where there is such a large disconnect between current valuation and future prospects, as Dick said the other day it is amazing that Buchan would seem to be priced as a liability at the moment!
Whether it is our friend Mr Griffiths (who bought the shares cheap and may or may not be selling them for a 100%+ profit) or someone else, it doesn't really matter. Until JOG can convince the market that it can get the oil out of the market for a profit then I think we will drift around, buffeted by news of Labour's windfall tax or improved outlook on oil reserves as the company gets to understand more of what lies in Verbier, Verbier deep et al...the good news is that buyers are watching and taking stock that is offered. I will continue to do the same. And when a farm-out is announced where JOG sells 10% of its reserves for $30mm, we will then get a sufficient re-rate. Time and patience. I have plenty of both.