Member Info for PC01

Obotritia Capital KGaA and why do they want 16% of my favourite pharma company?

as to when we get the next set of results from the ongoing clinical trials? I had in my mind a January update...

From hero to zero! Hard to buy a stock at 60p, watch it to £2.40, don't sell it then see it drift to £1.20...and do nothing...some sort of risk management is needed. He's a well-established and proven successful trader who may have put in his own 'stop'. It will matter not a bean once a farm-out is agreed.

OK - my stab is : JOG has oil assets in various P1, P2 or P3 formats of c 140mm barrels in 5 different areas within the Central North Sea. It is an area with much infrastructure in place. At the moment, the company has cash of £12mm and DTAs of a further £25mm (attractive to private equity types). It is not impossible to imagine JOG farming out a small block, say of 10mm barrels for which the going rate is $10/barrel, so receiving $100mm or c 3x its current market cap. That is all it needs to do to give the market the reality it needs. At the moment, its oil is being valued as worthless which is typically IM(H)O (!!) never a bad time to invest. it is worth remembering as well that the CPR done by Rockwood suggested cost of getting oil out of the ground in the low to mid $30s. Its hard to see OPEC allowing OIL to live sustainably below $50 (Saudi goes bust etc). So, a little luck, a little patience, and worth remembering the directors all have skin in the game and have proven themselves adept at managing in these hard times.

I don't think you are missing anything. Tho perhaps there is a thought that oil in 3-4 years time when JOG will start to produce might be a very dirty word in the world in which we live. It might be being shorted, tho I doubt it as event risk seems high. Volumes seem high. Maybe just as simple as private investors bailing out and moving back into Hurricane or Tullow. And obviously the more it drifts, the more the psychological effects take place as even the die hard believers start to worry, what am I missing?! Chinese water torture of the very worst type!

i'm afraid we are in for a news vacuum. The market says we don't believe you, you havent got the resources to get your reserves out the ground, so we will value them at zero. The company is preserving cash whilst undoubtedly speaking to the industry as it seeks the optimum solution. North sea farm outs value reserves at c $10/barrel, which is only 50x what the market values JOG's assets at. My greatest concern is a low ball bid by a predator at say £2 and PIs say thank god....that is the risk here that this heaven sent opportunity is removed from our hands before we get the chance and I know for sure its one the company is very cogniscent of. But its bloody hard to keep buying when the chart is so dreadful and the daily drip lower of bored punters for whom a trading update from Tullow or Hurricane or another oiler provides them with the chance to make a bob or 2...long term on AIM is about 3-5 days and here I'm afraid you need to be thinking 3-5 years.

Against a weak backdrop share price performance, Hurricane's trading update this morning is extremely encouraging. Guidance is reiterated and the water cut appears not to have progressed since the last update. With the stock trading substantially below Core NAV, we do not believe this is priced in; meanwhile infill drilling should double output by 2022 and offers potential for >100% upside exclusively from brownfield projects entirely within the company's control.
Not much else in here that has not been said in this chat room. Should be a good day for once!

What do u mean you've lost your finance? The whole GBA is not going to be nor was ever going to be financed by equinor...there will be a series of farm-outs with companies like Ineos who will take the strain. JOG remains completely mis-understood and probably should be taken private.

So this time last year when the stick was north of £2 and waiting to hear about the drill results from Verbier we were hoping for 100mm barrels of which we’d have got 17. We now have 140mm barrels and we r 60p lower!
Farm outs coming.
As is a re-rate!
Now if oil could stop falling....

I'm not sure of any leak...I'm actually more of the view that the sloppy Woodford over hang has been greatly reduced and the news flow generically has been pretty decent. technically looks quite pretty as well, with just the 200 DMA at 195 to worry about. As i said in my last post here tho, i think this is noise down at these levels. My and many others expectations for this stock far far exceed just a return to last year's highs. But its nice to see a bounce!

Not the dreaded '1' share trade....worth 3.7p...will have cost £12.50 to have enacted...I mean...really...what is that about?

Love the recent news flow, price action and volume. It does feel good. Cue radio silence for next 6 months as we all whinge about **** communications!!

Dear Bulent, by investing in shares you are de facto a capitalist who believes in Free markets...is your belief that because you have invested in Tullow it is only allowed to go up? No one can sell once the mighty Bulent has invested? FFS man, get a grip. Investing in oil companies is at the cliff edge of risk. OIL prices have ranged between $20 and $140 over the past 20yrs. A return to sub $50 oil prices will be great for the consumer (cheap petrol) and spell the end for many oil cos like Tullow who are over-levered. if you can't stand the heat of a falling SP, get out the kitchen and put your money on bank deposit where it shud be safe. But to accuse the market of being full of thieves just because you have got this particular investment wrong is self-deluded at best.

Firstly for avoidance I'm long...from £2 in my ISA and c 65p on spread. Painful day / week / month / quarter.

however, shorting is not 'evil'. If companies ran themselves properly, didnt accrue vast sums of debt which rely on a variety of factors to pay for and generically treated shareholders as they would their own families and loved ones, then short sellers wouldnt appear and private investors wouldnt get scared out of their positions. You don't see many people shorting Apple, Amazon, Facebook because the investing market believes in the company, its governance, its product etc. Here, Tullow has a large pile of debt which is just about covered by FCF but it wouldnt take much for question marks to appear. Keep an eye on the debt price, that will tell tell you all you need to know. Debt holders frequently short the shares to hedge their debt positions, given equity holders are junior to debt holders.

Tullow in my view has lost the market's approval. Days like yesterday may have been an institutional seller saying get me out, or debt holders hedging or indeed short sellers having a go. If Tullow can prove it is a viable long term business and it will take more than a quarter of good numbers to regain the market's trust, then the shorters will have to cover their positions. But you can't come out with the sorts of numbers Tullow has for the past 6 months and expect long term investors to sit idly by.

Fingers crossed we've seen the lows but there are so many buts......

Yep volumes good. +20% from the placing, we will no doubt see some short termist types say thank you...others like me need substantially higher! But it all looks rather nice, for once!

MMM...we have had a few false bottoms here before...I think technically we have been in a downtrend since June 2018, and you can draw a strong downtrend from the highs in Sep 17, Jan 18, Jan 19 so we first need a close above 4.5p then the 200 DMA at 5.5p to reverse that. However, as per many posts on here, the combination of a good news, improving technicals and support from companies like Ruffer should give us all confidence that indeed 3p is the low (tho I'm sure our friend OS will bring his inner eeyore to bear :-))...

...likes the stock this morning.

Summary
2019 saw Hurricane move from being a zero revenue company to one that generated $80M CF in ~six months. We forecast a further $270M/yr CF in the coming years for a FCF yield ex-discretionary capex of 15%. Infill drilling should double output by 2022 and offers potential for >100% upside exclusively from brownfield projects entirely within the company's control, and on that basis we reiterate our Buy rating. We make no changes to financials in this note but move Warwick out of our Contingent Asset NAV, seeing more exploration drilling as necessary to move the asset forward, this results in a trim to our target price.

Key Points
Well performance strong but not exactly as expected. We think HUR's two Lancaster production wells are performing ahead of expectations in terms of productivity.

However, for now at least we think HUR can't take the risk of going gung-ho (i.e. producing >>20 kb/d from the two existing wells on the Lancaster EPS), because it believes doing so could pull too hard on the reservoir given the wells are effectively producing out of just one small area.
By contrast, what was expected pre-start-up was production from along the entire length of the two wellbores, thus less pull at any given point. Given the stellar productivity, we think had this been the case HUR would have had the confidence to significantly boost production this year.
We see two possibilities for fixing this and fully utilising its production facility (which can produce 40 kb/d once fully debottlenecked). Firstly, production data could persuade HUR that the reservoir actually can deliver >>20 kb/d from existing wells. This would be a great result since it is capex-free - it could be that we know this by the capital markets day scheduled for late March. Secondly, more wells draining the reservoir we think would give ample headroom to ramp up, but allowing time to drill these and tie in means it's a 2021 event at the earliest, and would cost perhaps $100M all-in.

Fully funded to generate $400M annual CF by 2022. 18 kb/d of production at $65 oil in 2020 we see generating $270M in Operating CF - note, our financial forecasts to 2021 are unchanged today. Even at $50 oil we think this funds the work programme to 40 kb/d gross production (Figure 1 provides an illustrative cash bridge). The result would be a business generating c.$400M in annual OpCF in 2022, with a more robust production base of up to four wells rather than just two currently, and with the work programme fully under the control of the company without recourse to the capital markets.

Target trimmed from £1.20 to £1.

I know these guys quite well from yesteryear - am delighted to see them on board. Proper, long-term no nonsense investors.

to one and all. Nice to see a 5% rise to start the year...about 100 more of these days please to get to my target! All the best for 2020.

To one and all! It’s been a hard year for this company but I do think this deal will price to be its making! Then I was thinking about a 20p y/e target so wdik!!
Fingers crossed for 2020. All the best PC