The key as ever...6 Feb 2020 11:23
is to be able to look at a share and ask yourself, if it halves from here, am I comfortable with my loss. Ajax, we had this conversation before Xmas - the problem for you and me and all of us is FOMO...we believe the story so much that this one trade might bring a new life for us, if only it goes right. So we buy an outsized position and of course, because fairy tales rarely happen, the SP does not go in the intended way. if you sell it (or think about selling it) you just know it will bounce and if you don't, it will drift. It is absolutely the law of sod.
My advice remains the same - this is a 3-4 year story. Where we are now is - weirdly - a culmination of a series of unfortunate incidents, whereby JOG now has 140mm barrels of oil under its control and is not at risk of a cash call by a senior partner who decides when they want to drill. The SP can drift and will drift but if you believe Andrew Benitz and his team, then a farm out comes in Q3-4. If it is achieved at anything like the prevailing market value (eg $5-10/barrel) and lets say JOG sells 20% of its reserves, then a cheque for $150-300mm will be in the post. And these dark days will be behind us. And the day of the announcement, all those hoping to buy at 80p will look at a share price in the £4-6 area and wonder why they had worried about 20p and lost sight of the bigger picture....
That's my view. I may be wrong which will hurt - alot - or I maybe right which will cause a wee jig of celebration. but I certainly won't panic out of this share because someone wants to sell his holding and we're in the middle of an oil downdraft. Ajax, i wish you all the very best, we are - weirdly - tied to a similar mast!