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https://www.interserve.com/news-media/press-releases/press-release/2018/08/20/interserve-wins-13m-camhs-construction-contract

volume...or lack of it....

I am in agreement......avoid.
The share price may well rocket in the future and I am proved wrong....but I would avoid.

just to clarify I am using a crystal ball not crystal meth....and the trickle up should come next week with the boom after the 7th.....if it is as usual.

the next hour and a half the shares will drop from experience as its a bank holiday.....nice to see them holding over the 60 threshold......however I suggest you buy in now before the post holiday buys....using crystal ball method......roll on September and the post holiday buy in boom.

I know....just look at the September timing with alfa fin.

might be worth a quick look......I think if you have a strong chance there......

cant pm Mazik as dont have premium account.......take a look at alfa fin.....looks ripe for a jump in sept.......you might want to think. you were right with crawshaws. didn't make a load of bull up, thought better let u look.

I am sure it will fly.......just a case of waiting till it does.......

I like scenario.....your children must sleep soundly, but shouldn't it be based around the M4 Corridor?
I have a feeling a director buy in is the white knight your looking for? with it being a while back?
However I reckon its the sector not really in favour not just Interserve......and seeing it as a depressed SP that might not be helped by a buy in as much (just yet) as a steady correction back to around 180p SP and good borrowing facilities (don't get me wrong cash flow to keep things going is important), but when its back to around 1/5th is previous value the foundation for proper growth is there not just a sector avoidance and panic sale.......as I said before. I really feel for the people who bought at 2 or 3 quid and are having to sweat it out.

to go with the poor weather I figured most 6 months shorts should run out on or around the 7th of sept........so IF there is a tipping point that would be it.......and boom there or just after....so more of an Indian summer on the SPif you believe my figuring.

as you said......it can be written down to 2.5% with exceptions and indeed the revenue office seem ok with it for the construction sector.
but I doubt aiming for 2.5% would yield good results for the companies future in the long term.....wasn't there some news of a service contract for defribulators?

they are just getting the final coats of paint on the sunshades.......but it wont be long now.
I think we will be in luck by the time its back to school.....best to get more in on a dribble as fast as you can.

iirc on most construction projects its usually payments at key stages and or time deadlines.....to try and keep it on track with default payments for either late completion or no bonus for not hitting a specific time deadline....which is sometimes why they can throw people at a job (and they prefer to have several firms under an umbrella to call on) to hit a target date.
but it would be in the tender process for a project that would dictate how a contract was formed and with which playesr to achieve the outcome required (i.e. a definite completion date or a fixed cost with penalties for overspend) including the contract prices and bonuses or penalties.
I do understand the "income" from hitting the targets is useful for the cash flow even if there is little or no profit however I do find the low intended profit hard to believe as it would infer that the time is expanding to fit the bill. not that the costs are being driven down for a particular contract price or to meet a timescale for abonus.
plus there are better and worse contracts . I am sure your aware that some of Carillion contracts were left or had to be re-negotiated as the tender process left original contracts that no one could make profitable easily....if you say its 2.5% or 5% ok it is ........it just sounds like they are either working it down to 5% or whatever from a higher margin on the books or they are going to get caught out on such a low margin.....quite often.
It does sound a very lean business model though with just 5% profit......

be it 2.5% or 5% aimed profit....when there is something like a quantity surveyor involved...on a big project.....that could go.......I doubt they would aim for such a slight margin.....it might turn out to be 5% but I doubt that's their aimed target.....there is no headroom for an error......its the sort of margin you would expect from the financial service industry tbh......
one thing is certain I think we all agree on is the fact that the news from 6th of aug (it should be noted the rns stated recovery looking promising) plus the bank holidays seem to fair well for later in the year........
thanks for the info tho......

I don't mean to be rude but at 110p or 120p or whatever the market cap would be way less than 200 million and still be cheap...... when looking at the revenue stream of 2 or 3 billion and could be turned into around say a 15% profit. which I believe is the going rate for this type of firm ran well. I am not saying that will happen or that interserve are doing a bad job or that it wont be a long hard slog to get back up but its always looming in the background if there is the will, skill and capital backing focused to do so. IF I had 200 million and could bring that amount of profit in each year from that revenue it would make you think.........possible

UBS increased its stake to just over 5%

the write downs are (in my opinion) so severe that it gives a false impression of loss.
if/when they were to sell of any part to try and add to the kitty it would most likely be a shock that would have a large correction and would come at a time when there was a need. true the construction industry is normally going to be the first to either boom or bust however with the rail infrastructure boom looming (if they can hold out unlike carillion) in a few years they may well be in a place that they dont expect. I WOULD have thought the emphasis is on trimming staffing increasing working hours of the staff (where possible) to reduce head count and cost and NOT bidding to win but bidding to make a small profit.
going on past experience.....
does anyone have a list of major shareholders? just to see the lay of the land when it comes to a larger takeover??
(not to make you sick or promote anything but has looked like a strong possibility in the future of crawshaws at points along the way).
I would have thought the "sell offs" if/when they did come would be where there is either marginal profit that can be turned to a decent profit by either running that firm as mentioned above after takeover or by moving or relocating the work to somewhere that can either "add a grant" to help boost profits or where there is reduced labour costs.
At the end of the day firms generally are tight but the inertia created by it being under the same management can make it tricky to implement or gain access to some "incentives" or to relocate.

orry for my poor grammer.
I deleted a load and didn't re read it.

you see its one of the reasons I dont answer. and I would just ignore your last comment normally.
you have assumed I have. and the more I go into it the more complicated as to why and what and how much and when should I say something just gets more problematic.
I was using it as an example of a theory that seems to work. i
I feel I must tell you this or I feel I would be not entirely honest.
I would wait until its well below 5. but investors there are too in a similar boat to interserve in that the price was very high and has dropped like a stone leaving a disparity between market cap and sp.
however I think you are dead right we have a late Aug holiday lull. and it being a good time to get onboard with interserve. I just hope you aren't in the awful position of buying in at 2 or 3 quid and having to wait forever and sweat it out.

I never normally tempt fate by saying what how much and where my money is.........but a fraction of my pension is there averaged out at around 64 ish.<br />tbh most of my success has come from looking at the true value of a business (real material) and the actual market cap.<br />where there is a disparity you have a good window.<br />the 105m contract interserve just won, they will probably aim for around 15% profit which is about 1/7 or 1/8 their market cap? how ridiculous is that?<br />crawshaws butchers is a good example at the moment.<br />50 plus stores each store is a 1/2 million of better shop. their market cap is/was less than 5 million.<br />ask mazik. he has sense to see it coming.<br />gl tbh.<br />I think their is a lot of deramping coming up to the bank holiday.<br />easy money (I think) as its so low and isn't gong bust in the near future.<br />