Member Info for PaulFG

According to WH Ireland report:

"Wet plant (Stage 1)
The wet plant will be at the mine site. Where the mineral sands mined will
be separated into silica sand (returned to the mining area and backfilled)
and a Heavy Mineral Concentrate (HMC) by the use of spirals, which utilise
the density difference of the grains to perform the separation. We expect
the commissioning to be modular with up to 3x 550kt/yr plants sited
logistically to best aid production. The HMC will be trucked to the dry plant
at Oluvil by the contractor. Initial Capex for the wet plant is expected at
~$10m.
Dry plant (Stage 2)
The dry plant will separate the various heavy minerals contained in the
HMC into separate ilmenite, rutile, garnet and zircon (later silimanite)
using a variety of well-used techniques: magnetics, electrostatic, particle
size differences and additional spirals. Products will then be shipped to
global markets. Capex for the dry plant is expected at $25m (including
infrastructure)."

Therefore, looks like in the short term the CAPEX requirement is reduced to $10m from $35m - I would imagine this is easily raised in either an Offtake agreement or in debt by using one as collateral.

Pretty clear that CMET - M I C H A E L F R A Y N E & J A M E S L E A H Y - need to to do a better MUCH BETTER job about getting the CMET story out in the market, and it's a GOOD STORY, to attract new interest and buyers.

probably a case where everyone expected a bounce after EIA. Everyone got in before EIA, lack of good/any PR from Frayne et al prior to EIA resulting in no new buyers, or not sufficient to overcome the sell from the short term holders looking to bang out a quick profit.

But the company is a good position and MH Ireland have fired the starting gun with the investment community announcing the undervaluation and potential in the short term.
If the offtakers are as aggressive as MF alluded hopefully they'll close at least one deal soon. on the IML I think MF's phrase 'we have to bed in' would hint there'll be no new news on this prior to Q1 2022.

If you look at page 9 of MH Ireland report: Table 4: Selected peers for the Eastern Minerals Project (ranked on market cap), you see the outstanding opportunity that exists here compared to other listed Mineral Sands miners. OUTSTANDING!

G
No he didn't say that, he said what he always says that he'll seek a partnership that includes offtake and financing. His overall demeanour indicated he didn't foresee that as much of a problem - but obviously until the deal is done it's not done.

For me the project economics have not changed and I'm very heartened by the WH Ireland broker note this morning which is 100% backing up my thoughts, if anything by it's own admission its model is conservative.

Your decision to exit is your decision and right for you, I assume you're seeing better opportunities elsewhere whether that's in cash or another stock investment. You don't need to justify your decision.

LW good timing to mention CMET, WH Ireland broker note this morning puts fair value at 33.3p (11p now) and once steady production ... 77p.

Once we get to Production they see valuation at 77p (H2 2022 people!)

"Upside
Capital looks undervalued on all metrics; against our conservative DCF and certainly
against its peers (see below) set against a current market value of £20m (11.3p/sh).
However, we see further upsides to our valuation: resource expansion, de-risking and
transition to producer status.

We expect the resource to be expanded: The licence area contains many areas not fully
investigated. To this end, Capital has drilled for a resource expansion after engaging the
Geological Survey and Mines Bureau in Sri Lanka to drill 500 auger holes. The drilling
programme began in early October with assay results now expected in Q1 2022

De-risking has been achieved by government acceptance of the EIA (23.11.2021) and
when Capital gains its First Industrial Mining Licence, we will reduce our risk rating further.
We expect these catalysts to be instrumental for funding, followed by construction (12
months) and commissioning. With the inclusion of 100% of our NPV10, the fair value for
Capital would rise to 66p/sh.

Transition to producer status and steady-state production would allow us to value the
company on financial multiples. As Table 2 shows, forward EV/EBITDA and P/CF multiples
are currently ~3.5x. Using our valuation model (Table 3), this would imply a valuation of
~$180m, which, using an exchange rate of 1.35:1, would translate into 77p/sh."

WH Ireland see fair value 33.3p:

"The key catalyst, for us, was the acceptance of the
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) on 23.11.2021, following which we expect an
orderly sequence of permitting, funding, construction and commissioning: construction
time is a short 12 months as the area has outstanding existing infrastructure and a port,
which is built and awaiting use. The quick build and simple processing should enable
Capital to benefit from current high prices. Low capital cost of $40m (WHIe) ensures the
project is robust and we see fair value at 33.3p from a risked DCF. Milestones and risk
reduction as Capital goes through the various stages should see us lower our risk rating."

https://twitter.com/DavidBurton1971/status/1463785317941583878

Hi DRJJ
Yes, short. I have to say disappointingly short, considering this guy does not do interviews and generally does not make himself available to shareholders. Not his best interview I would say - not sure if that is Sarah Lowther's fault (not one of her best interviews either) or his or a combination.

I was surprised to hear the drill samples are STILL in SL considering the drilling was due to have been completed in October. Also a little surprised that things wouldn't have been a little further advanced with the IML or discussions with offtakers.

I mean were all these guys just sitting around during COVID doing nothing? Apart from drawing salaries?

Perhaps I'm being unfair and a longer interview might have explored just what exactly they have been doing.

WRT the offtake and financing he didn't seem in the least concerned (laughing) so that's certainly encouraging. Perhaps we could get the Proactive guys or Stockbox or CRUX or 121 Mining to conduct a more indepth interview. Maybe he just doesn't have more to say?

Agree by the time we're in production (H2 2022) this will be significantly higher and I would expect that rise to start now with so many key milestones coming up in a pretty short period.

'offtake discussions not of concern at all'

'depends on who's going to help us finance what we want to do...'

yes I agree LW too many variables beyond fund raising - in which form we do not know it will come. Some equity is likely but how much and as part of what deal we do not know.

Thus I revert to my original post at the start of this thread and on balance for me I'm VERY happy to be long (but then I have been very happy to be long for a long time - the EIA is a major de-risking step forward for potential shareholders.)

I'm also heartened that there is now a professional experienced CFO in place to advise MF as to best financing options.

If we compare the company to what is was at the beginning of the year we see a much progressed and professional outfit:

1. EIA achieved;
2. Experienced Technical Manager Appointed;
3. Exploration drilling in Southern License executed and currently being analysed.
4. Professional CFO engaged
5. OffTake discussions advancing now (probably getting down to the nitty gritty)
6. Clear backing from SL authorities for the project (all conspiracy theories now disregarded)
7. Mine Development plans being undertaken by professional outfit
8. Mineral Sands market has tightened considerably with significant price rises and demand for our commodities markedly improving the overall economics for the project.
(there's probably more but this is what sticks out to me)

Against which:
1. Company valued significantly less than at launch;
2. Cash burn - yes but mostly likely not beyond budgets anyway
3. Delayed timeline (probably 6 months, but in the life of this project it's not material)

This is where long term holders spot market anomalies - where value exists that the market has overlooked. This is when you buy to make supernormal portfolio profits.

G - in which case you have made the correct decision for you and I've no problem with that, obviously. We all have different trading strategies, for me it largely revolves around the mgt team and a clearly defined strategy (I tend to be a longer term investor so these things are more important for me).
I have been frustrated here at times because I honestly think that the mgt team need to wake up and communicate with shareholders a bit more. But MF's experience is not in doubt and neither is the strategy they have clearly laid out and are following (albeit delayed by about 6 months largely beyond their control) furthermore the market demand vs supply for these commodities has done nothing but tighten and it looks like continuing to the end of the decade at least, which provides much better economics for the project than last January. SO I still believe in their strategy and will hold a core holding to dividend which, buying in at these levels will prove a very healthy yield. (look at Bases Resources I think their yield this year was somewhere around 24%, I know that'll disappear as they clawback dividends short term to finance another mine, but it shows you the kind of yields that are available in this very overlooked sector).

Anyway, good luck and hopefully we'll see you back here someday.

Looks like TMS interview tomorrow:

Got to love #AIM

#CMET announce transformational news yesterday (several months later than suggested) re approval of the EIA

Shares trade LOWER than day pre news!

Listen to @MetalsCapital on the @TMSreach podcast in the morning and see what you think…

https://t.co/GoACsHte62 https://t.co/EBAzlIT8AM

G sorry my point is that that is not new news. They've Said that all year.
Why people are suddenly panicking about it and exiting positions is frankly beyond me
But I suspect there are other reasons and has less to do with CMET.

I don't know where the 'talk of a placement' originates, apart from a couple of people on here. MF has always been clear it could a combination of a finance clause in an offtake, equity/debt nothing new in that.
I expect it might come through in the offtake agreement whereby the offtaker also takes a chunk of equity in the business. This is perhaps the hint given in the October 2021 presentation wrt a Strategic Partner. A very good outcome imo.

But I can understand people are fed up here they've waited and waited, communications with the market have been abysmal and then the long awaited EIA arrives and there's a massive meh. But let's face it too those people were always likely to sell on the EIA announcement.

Hopefully, that announcement will now attract more investors with monger term time horizons, not that I think January is long term with the potential for new newsflow PLUS I note that in the timelines announced yesterday MF didn't include offtake agreement conclusion.

He did say and CMET tweeted the quote separately that CMET can now actively advance third party offtake discussions. This means these could be announced anytime and perhaps even before year's end.

Will be interested to hear any hints dropped by MF in upcoming interview.

don't misunderstand me I'm seriously bullish prospects here - hold a significant % of stock. I just think communication could be improved exponentially.

I'm not surprised by the selling into liquidity after the shameful way the Directors have treated shareholders in the last 4 months. Hopefully, they have learned some lessons about communication.

I am also certain that these sellers will be cleared and we'll experience continued sustained upward momentum,

I expect there'll be a tonne of delayed trades posted this evening or even tomorrow...

yes interested to see reaction in the coming weeks - it won't be all today. Offtakes will be next big boost. I think most people will now factor in the IML as a given, and then next big boost start of construction.

Let's see how the TMS interview goes and hopefully MF will provide better information then.

Read the thread properly LUCKYorange, I never mentioned the miners - the whole 'situation in Australia' is a red herring -little or no impact to company activities. Not millions in protests only tens of thousands - get real - the problems here are ECR specific.