Member Info for PaulCurtis

Agreed but this should fly up when Deal done. All broker notes I’ve seen quote PT’s 55p - 80p!

I’d be amazed if not over 25p in a flash.

I suppose discount to NAV will hinge on director credibility. I don’t blame them for most of the delays but why were they citing 30th June as doable at 31st May update? They should have known that Election hiatus would rule this out?

My brokers say part of the problem is that market makers think oversold and have large positions in anticipation of a bounce. Unfortunately this has been the case for a while now .

Hence any selling and they just cut the price since too exposed to add to overweight positions.

SAVP own the 10.25% 7E senior bonds and the $28m SS facility so in strong position to complete Deal. Plus they have the heavy hitting debt holders on board. These guys are serious players and not to be messed with. Hence it may be Nigeria but this all gives me confidence that Deal will eventually complete

Our dilemma is risk reward.

The reward is 55p to over 85p depending on which broker you believe.

The downside is a Niger only risked Nav of 10p (discounted to 7p actual share price according to Barclays) ranging to other brokers risked Navs of c. 15p to over 20p.

If the directors are trustworthy, then risk:reward very attractive and we are only at this price through too many false dawns/investor boredom.

Be interesting to asking directors re what is salvageable from 7E. They have the SS $28m - is this safe? They own the 10.25% Senior Bonds. Any value if deal falls through? Must put them in pole position as only company who can bring it all together, ie can't be gazumped.

And what value do they put on Niger in view of Barclay's 7p! That should wind up a response!

With any complex deal there are always delays. This appears an extremely complex deal and it is in Nigeria during a change of Administration. I accept missed deadlines reflect badly but we are where we are. This principle issue is are the Directors hiding anything sinister.

How the shares perform today will hinge on what emerges from the AGM. The BoD will be under considerable pressure to explain the delays, what exactly needs to be done (ie box ticking or riskier further negotiations) and what is the risking on Deal Completion.

Agree 100%.

Need a forensic breakdown of the hurdles left to clear and ideally, which is the greatest hurdle.

I can’t make it to the AGM but is anyone here going? Any feedback would be greatly appreciated by the rest of us

Should have said Shore Cap have Niger assets at 19p Risked.

Mirabaud 12p Core Niger R3 East risked at 70%, Niger additional upside 15p after risking at 38%

Just looking at previous Barclays Note, 31st Jan.

Their worst case at this time, no Nigeria, was 10p. Core 8p risked at 75%, Upside 3p risked at 20%.

The Nigerian SS loan should have value, plus negotiating clout.

Barclays updated yesterday, still effectively a Buy Rec but slashed PT from 55p to 31.

I’ve not yet seen Note note but another poster on ADVFN says they simply took their No Deal downside at 7p and upside at 55p and split the difference. ie risking No Deal at 50:50. This seems very extreme unless they know something we don’t, in which case why the Outperform rating?

Have they added anything for the Super Senior $28m? Plus this SS loans puts us in good position to salvage something should Deal need to be renegotiated say some parties want smaller debts haircuts.

I’m told that today’s trading is sporadic Retail, market saying no sign of big seller but then they would say that.

You have to ask why anyone selling when news Friday, unless aware of something sinister.

My guess is, as with any complex deal, darkest hour is before dawn! There are always last minute hiccups but normally sorted.

Whatever, it’s going to be an exciting ride this week!

The problem with abandonment liabilities is that NPV'd, I think at 8% in this case? Hence if PMG have to crystallise now, the figure will be a lot higher than in provision in the Accounts. The £8.6m presumably covers ALL abandonment liabilities, not just Athena.

My broker says he's been told that current fall in PMG share price linked to concern over the Athena abandonment liability? Evidently been some mention of this on Twitter? This was my principle concern and PMG have been pretty cagey about exactly what has happened? They have written off most of Athena's valuation but still maintain significant value? I assume they still view Athena as having value if incorporated into Perth hub, assuming higher oil price of course. Maybe partners just want to write off now but this means crystallising abandonment liability? For the record I am a shareholder and price averaged down on Wed at 35p and 35.5p.