Member Info for PaulCurtis

‘ Our oil hedging strategy and gas revenues continue to protect the business from price volatility, we are achieving substantial cost reductions from our suppliers and are managing our own costs even more carefully in this challenging period. Thanks to the excellent relationships we have with our Government partners and supply chain, our NPDC receivables have fallen and we are managing our payments equitably’

My broker has spoken to all the mm’s. No one has a clue. Think could be typo and a 6 is missing or that exercising options but where’s the RNS.

Interesting thought.

Knott alluded to an ‘in Country’ solution re funding Niger since International oil farm outs on hold. And also said seeking new licences.

Thought reasonably +ve update.

95% gas State guaranteed, 65% World Bank guaranteed

Claimed no bad debts (yet!) and implied no great increase in arrears versus deal completion.

Bad news re Niger was no short term prospect of farm out (no **** Sherlock!) but good news that Licence extended to 10 years.

Describes share price as a nonsense. Finals (mid July) will provide comprehensive detail and much more regular news flow H2.

Shore Cap have updated, Buy but no PT
Net debt position in line with forecast. Update confirms strong production growth and a ‘generally pleasing business performance’. They ‘firmly’ reiterate their BUY rec.

I’m told by my broker that Numis have issued a Buy note with 28p price target. He says he’s been told it’s today’s date but I want to confirm this. He’s trying to get a copy.

Some good info on World Bank $750m, thanks everyone

Agree 100%. Those of us who are long term investors here greatly appreciate Agadem’s contributions.

The likes of Agadem and Zengas are what makes this forum worth reading.

Gas_trader

I’m assuming a large part of your $92m is covered under Debtors.

Knott today made clear that all good operationally, this is all about getting paid.

In this respect, we all criticise the PR team but they have initiated some very positive local press coverage. Possibly a very subtle way of applying additional pressure to the Nigerian Govt to cough up.

Agadem

I think this is all about debtors. Perhaps SAVE being very careful not to publicly criticise Govt? Perhaps JL was anticipating a large Govt cheque by now?

As you seem to have the best relationship with JL, any chance you could please steel yourself for another chat? See if his bullishness is undiminished?

We know that business has gone well with gas sales higher than anticipated

However debt $520m at end May. Cash $26m

Conclusion is that there has been a large increase in debtors? Hence one big Govt cheque would absolutely transform SAVE!

Results hinge primarily on SAVE reassuring markets that they are/will be paid.

I think it’s clear from press articles that Nigerian Govt realise that they need to pay gas industry enough not only to survive but to reinvest. This means ensuring that Companies and investors have sufficient confidence.

Hence I hope this will be a given with results. The icing on the cake is whether we will have enough Nigerian income in order to invest in Niger. IMO the value of Niger increases with completion of the pipeline so I would hope that SAVE report +ve progress re farm out. However it may still be too early in the Covid recovery phase to attract anything but derisory offers.

Just been reading latest RBC note on Tullow.

They list all the questions they want to ask the new incoming CEO.

One was is he still keen on investing in Nigeria? He bid on an asset there in previous company.

Second was what is his view on explo. Tullow has had mixed results and very little shareholder appetite. Would he look to buy proven reserves/production?

It’s not rocket science and self evident from previous sell offs. The big boys mop up the undervalued smaller players with quality assets. Only this time round there should be increased interest. Why would oil companies/investors commit to explo and subsequent appraisal and development phases so that in production in 7 - 10 years (when who knows what the oil price will be) when you can buy cheap production now, just in time for the recovery phase?

It’s a no brainier!

So, imo, just a matter of time before the action starts, hopefully sparking a sector rally.

There are not many ‘small’ companies with quality assets offering the scale to attract a cash rich predator. Can you think of any?!

My broker says a friendly mm told him seller from last week appears to have gone, morning trades are now PI sellers and afternoon trades more US buyers.

I’m trying to buy a few more but struggling.......

The issue is not so much the arrears but how much the arrears have accrued over last few months. As long as arrears reasonably static then SAVE cash flow should be okay. Clearly (from Company’s ambiguity on this subject) we are burning into the cash pile. We then need to focus on CAPEX/maintenance commitments......

But all this we knew and should be in the share price. The Guarantee is our short/medium term safety net.

I still think it’s going to be a bumpy ride but it’s in all parties interests to keep the lights on. At least oil is improving. Not seen latest Covid update re Nigeria?

Just to clarify, I was buying last week and think chances are nothing much has changed.

I’ve thought for a while that SAVP must be living hand to mouth, the Nigerian Govt and economy must be struggling very badly post oil price crash and Covid. It’s clear that they will struggle to get paid for the gas but, as is normally the case in these situations, they will get paid enough to keep the lights on and supply maintained.

I’m not so worried about the Going Concern statement because if caveated, it’s only stating the obvious.

Most likely, this is all about integrating the 7E accounts during a Covid lockdown.

No point submitting questions before 24th RNS but I think we should all bombard the PR team with emails demanding that Results fully address whether they have sufficient cash and projected cash flows to cover anticipated expenditure/CAPEX. And whether they anticipate drawing on the partial (thanks for correction!) guarantee.

Hopefully with oil over £40 the outlook for Nigerian economy is improving.

Bottom line is SAVE is either incredibly cheap or potentially bust! I’m 95% the former but you always worry in Nigeria! However I can’t see how the Nigerians can stuff SAVE and still get an IMF rescue packet!

But HUR down on bad news

PHAR is another yet to recover properly, looks like ongoing large seller. Was 60p start of year, now 19p, been as low as 11p. Was due to pay 2.75p dividend until recently and that was slashed from 5.5p a few months ago. Will be a high yielder again when oil recovers

Any others?

Touch wood now cleared. My best guess is that market has taken on a bit of stock to sell at higher prices. Just need to clear that out.

Think one seller will be cleared today. I’m taking 750K at 7.55p as part of consortium. Not much more to go.

As I said earlier, will another seller then emerge at higher price....

I’ve been nibbling for more last few days. There are clearly other buyers and seller was stuck at 7.5p end of last week. I couldn’t fully fill my order at 7.5p yesterday

So feels like we are finally getting ready for lift off. Big caveat is whether another seller waiting with 8p limit!

SAVP likely to have effectively written this report but can hide behind Cap Access if it all goes horribly wrong.

Obviously paid for research should normally go straight into the bin but with Results four weeks away, it provides a useful and +ve general steer. However, IMO SAVE facing multiple challenges re cash flow and supplies/kit. Suppliers may be going bust /in lockdown and debtors not paying. At least SAVE should be ‘too big to fail’ and Govt will do everything possible to help out.