Member Info for PaulCurtis

Exposure to Germany and energy crisis?

I’d be very grateful if someone can please suggest some attractive gold plays, ideally paying £ dividends and not located anywhere too dodgy.

Just watched the Egon Von Greyerz YouTube interview ’2022, an epic risk moment in history’. He’s been like a broken clock and he sells safe haven gold investments but nevertheless I’m thinking I need to increase my gold exposure! Especially since I sold a large chunk of Centamin on Thursday.

Thanks

Agadem

So sorry to read this, we can only admire your stoicism. You are up there with Zengas and we owe you both an enormous debt of gratitude.

I’m inside so can’t comment on the Deal.

Very best wishes for Xmas Paul

Having now read this Note it appears to have been published before the Webcast. The Note claims base case is 460K pa whereas the transcript makes clear that 500K is the targeted base case and CEY expect to build on this. CEY apologised for the confusion over the 460K lower limit which appears misleading but was accounting procedure

I was highlighting the ‘potential’ bit.

The transcript was very upbeat and 2022 is going to hinge on evaluation of the bonanza grades. This should offer significant current share price support. Some bears have claimed the dividend is at threat, simply not true according to transcript

Ditto that the capital restructuring will be dilutive

My greatest concern was the risk of CEY launching a paper bid for someone else. Don’t see how they can at this share price but such talk never inspires confidence if current assets are so great. I assume any acquisition would be a producing asset.

Two years ago:

The Endeavour Mining Corporation has announced that it is looking to agree to a merger with Centamin due to the latter's "compelling long-term value creation opportunity."

A paper deal but opening bid valued CEY at 118p.

How low does CEY have to go before someone steps forward. The net cash pile could easily attract another paper bid from someone looking to reduce gearing?

Most of the debt is long dated 2028 bonds so although gearing a concern in a falling market, the finances are solid. Also unsecured.

That Battery Minerals has taken A$11.5m in equity implies not a scam. BAT look okay although small cap.

The Company website is unimpressive if not worrying. The information on the BoD is scant. Can’t see a list of current shareholders nor the Final Results in printed form?

Apart from being promoted by Gervais Williams I’d say the whole set up looked dodgy?

Anyone met the BoD? Is the lack of detail because PI’s only represent a minority interest?

Part of reason for price rise is an upbeat note from Barons.

CEO Read tells Barron's that "we are back to service revenue growth in Europe as
well as Africa," with more than 3% growth in the first quarter. "We have good commercial
momentum in the business and we are continuing to build value around our platforms, such
as IoT and M-Pesa," he says.

Except VOD held a CDM for analysts on 29th September all feedback has been positive. All UK brokers are Buy/OW.

Deutsche Bank put out a Note dated 18th October, headline ‘Time for perspective, The valuation f Vodafone is highly compelling. Buy’

PT 230p!!! Others are ranging from 150p to 183p

Two Buy notes on 18th Oct. One says ‘highly compelling buy’ and the other a Buy trade. Both 230p price target. Claim VOD very oversold. Reassuring that CMD on 29th Sept was +ve.

If you check out my Twitter link I’ve got a reply from Tom and Matt. Shadowfall not closed

@paulcurtis123

Including one block of 10m at 91.5p.

Tom Winnifrith at SP claimed two days ago that shares going under 50p by Xmas so go short! However has Shadowfall now closed out? Tom appears close to SF so would be strange if they have closed. Or very smelly!

Africa is the big growth story though

Assume you have checked out the main BoD? All appear highly reputable so unlikely to be involved in a dodgy cover up!

Would they have thoroughly checked out the Shadowfall claims before signing off on such a strongly worded rebuttal?

According to UBS the market concern is over German operations. However their recent field trip indicated ‘competitive dynamics normalising’. Their 12 month price target 187p, dated 29th September post Digital Services Brifing

Every broker following VOD is +ve.

The recent Digital Services Briefing was well received and VOD did not say anything to materially impact earnings forecast.

So why are the shares c. 110p? Assume supply chain/inflationary pressures but how bad will these be? Is VOD suffering in knee jerk sympathy with BT, albeit very different markets/prospects?

Yes the debt is a bit eye watering, on the face of it SAVE highly geared. This does mean geared and therefore rapid NAV growth but clearly increases risk profile.

Balance sheet c. $225m versus market cap c. £75m. Not much of a safety net in view of gearing to debt and this may be the principle concern spooking the sellers.

However check out the small print re liabilities/provisions that can be either written off or non cash settlement. Circa $150m by my very quick calcs? Add that onto the $225m and Balance Sheet much improved?

I’m not convinced by SAVE seeking further M&A. They appear to have plenty to be getting on with already. However I assume will be cash generative...

However SAVE strikes me as much more of a takeover target than a predator! Yes M&A is on most companies back burners but SAVE has strategic potentially world class assets of a size to tempt the big boys. Now would be the time to buy before they pay down and refinance the debt....

And did I miss any reference to refinancing the debt.? This would be very big news and must be a priority

Market calling up 5%. Says Results as expected! Way better then I expected or rather feared.

It has appeared there has been a seller at c. 8p. Hopefully will be cleared today....

In view of SAVE’s reliance on fixed price gas contracts (ie independent of oil price) the share price is crazy compared to where is was last year post deal completion/pre Covid oil slump