Member Info for Paul2566

I'm not talking amazing fundamentals, but news without substance simple leads to short term SP increases follewed by a retrace.
The US news for example is very good but with the caveats attached its still only potential, and no substance. Once it gets to the point (which I believe it will) where the contract can be fulfilled, that news will have substance.
The news regarding the Irish healthcare subsidy, was news with substance, and as a result I increased my holding.
News of what might happen and news of what will happen are two very different animals.

News won't trump fundamentals, which while they are moving in the right direction still only allow well under 12 months of cash runway.
I don't think MGC will have trouble raising further funding from the issue of more shares, but that will also dilute existing share holders investments.
Whether they would be able to raise further funds after the next fund raise remains to be seen.
I am hoping that will not be required.

Pokerchips
Thanks for explaining your thoughts, it makes sense, I hadn't considered the added cost/burden of listing on the US market.

Whatever peoples personal views of the MGC management, I don't think anyone would believe them fools.
I suspect any further issue of shares will be timed around a good news event, perhaps on fulfilling the US contract, or getting the required US authorities/licences.
Whatever it is its got to happen soon, and that event may afford those who would like an exit point, an opportunity to do so.
Followed by a drop in SP of course to a more stable level.

Pokerchips
Thats interesting, I ruled out the LSE as I wasn't sure there would be sufficient interest.
The only reason I suggested the US was that the new contract there might raise interest locally and its a larger audience, so just a guess really.

My takeaway is that with well under a year of cash runway left the current SP is nothing to do with MMs, but the current financial position of MGC.
With the current level of risk I don't see 2.6p SP as particularly undervalued.
Because there are I suspect many amature investors like me invested in MGC, the SP occasionally rises on hype around news, which cannot be sustained without substance.
However I still believe the substance will come, but this stock is going to be a medium (5yr) term hold to see any real sustained growth.
We shouldn't be surprised by ups and downs, or setbacks.
My opinion fwiw is this stock is a hold, with me buying on the back of good news. Its not going to make me a million in 12 months.

Predictions are problamatic at best but one source of information I use which has proved slightly better than most forecasts a revenue growth of 120.4% over the next Aus financial year. That equates to an earnings growth of 31.9% for the same period.
Putting that into context they expect the Aus market in general to have a revenue growth of 4.3%, and the pharma industry in general to grow at 36.7% for the same period.
Over the past 5 years MGC has an annual earnings growth of -22%.
Over the past year MGC has grown earnings at 26.6% compared to the industry at 17.4% and the market in general at 35.9%.

The prelim Financial Report would seem to show around 6 months of cash left at the current rate of loss.
It does show a reduction in loss form the previous year of about 5.5m which is obviously good news, but at the current rate the money will run out early 2022.
If the US contract is completed it will, after production/supply expenses give them another couple of months.
I suspect there may be the need for the issue of further shares, possibly on the US exchange, which will of course dilute the holdings of current investors.

Which buy/sell actions are you seeing by MM's. I've looked at the day and there a 4 or 5 big actions by my standards the largest of which was I think 1m shares. But I would struggle to identify more than a 1% effect on the SP, which for the most part was short lived, and can't attribute directly to the action. If you take out what might happen, or what we wish would happen, and stick to what is happening, I'm not so sure 2.6p isn't far from the mark.
I wisk it was otherwise, but it is what it is.
In a months time things may look very different.

My view.
a) It happens.
b)It happens but is ineffective and has little or no effect on the SP.
c) I don't believe it happens, as in 'b' above it simply does not work, it only influences novice investors who are mostly small players. The large investors do not base their investment strategy on bb's.

I'm not sure we will not see 3.72p again, however it was a smart move to close your position at this price.
The SP rose too much yesterday on hype and what is still only potential which may not be realised.
It was however positive news.
I upped my holding yesterday by a modest 100000 shares, and held on through greed and FOMO. Had I been more disciplined I too would have sold and most likly bought back in this afternoon at a lower price.
I missed that boat and will continue to hold, buying stock on the back of good news.
We will know soon enough if the potential US deal has substance.
GLA

Ok I added some more earlier today, now holding 216738 shares at an average of 3.29p.
I waited for more good news which meant that I missed out on the sub 3p SP.
Thats ok as I still see this as a very high risk investment, but a little less so than yesterday.
It would be nice to see this see some stability in the 5p range over the next month.
If all the ducks line up I can see this making a very nice profit over the next 10 years, by which time I hope there is a dividend.
I don't believe we are out of the woods yet but things are definately looking better, and I will continue to buy on the back of good news.
GLA

I am sad to say I'm not overly surprised.
My personal experiences have led me to have a fairly low opinion of GP's. In contrast I will also state I have the highest regard for nursing staff, trauma doctors and those dealing with serious and life threatening issues. I am alive today because on one occasion these people without doubt saved my life, and three times trauma doctors and staff have got me back fighting fit.
However I also suspect that in time GP's will surrender to pressure, and younger Gp's may be a little more open to change.
Most would be surprised of the lack of knowledge by most GP's on some important issues impacting a great number of people. Its not wholely their fault, they are overworked with too many patients per GP, and poor support regarding ongoing training. If CBD / THC related products are available GP's should have easy access to training/information, and be given time to develop with all new treatments and methodology. I suspect GP's start out driven, dedicated, and exceptional good people, but the current system grinds them down.
Making any product available to any professional body is pointless without training and information. I wonder how much the Irish GP's have been given.

On the live price it does very often seem to dip around 0800hrs, then pops back up.

Scratch that. Back to 2.4p.

Not such a good start this morning 2.05p

Publication date is Feb 2021.
Source MGC Pharma.
I'm not saying its not good, but hardly impartial.

NickE

You last post suggests that MXC is listed on AIM, it is on the main LSE and ASX indicies, not AIM.

Turnaround

I'm not sure, at least not in the short term.

My 2p worth.
MGC has less than 12 months of free cash flow.
It has been suggested the company will reach break even by the end of the year, which I suspect is the financial year, which in Australia is I believe the end of June (2022), so pretty much 12 months from now, which means they run out of cash before they reach break even. Break even isn't profitable its just treading water, but a benchmark none the less.
They are going to need additional funding, which I suspect will mean additional shares issued.
With good news sentiment may take the SP higher, but not much and with the new shares I can see the sell price staying in the 1.75p to 2.5p range for the next couple of years.
If they fail to reach break even as suggested then all bets are off and I would expect to see the SP move South of 1.75p, at which point its going to take something big to gain investor confidence and the option of further funding via the issue of new shares will not be feasable. Without making use of a loan, at this point its looking unfortunate.
If they achieve break even as suggested, I suspect further funding may be available or they could be absorbed by another company.
If and its a big IF things go well I think we may start to see investors making worthwhile gains on their investments sometime in the next 3 to 5 years. For those invested and sitting on paper losses, that may just mean achieving break even.
I am going to continue to hold my 128,440 shares for now, with the hope that the 5 to 10 year returns will be truely worthwhile.
In reality if MGC fails to reach break even by 1st July 2022, I don't think we will be talking about them in July 2023.

Ah yes, forgot to include ASX.
My point still stands however, further issue of shares is unlikly to devalue current SP to any great degree. Whats another drop in the ocean.