Member Info for Paul2566

Oops make that £13k, you have to laugh.

Unfortunately I think its got a way to go yet, still only £11k down, and hoping it will get me back to break even eventually.

Its no big deal, there is so much negative news at the moment its not a surprise the markets are dropping.
I suspect a lot of stocks will fall lower over the next 12 months if fears of a recession grow or come to pass.
If you are selling its dreadful.
If you are buying its great.
If you are holding, who cares as long as the company is as good as when you bought the stock.
I'm down on this at the moment by a little over 3%, and if it continues down I will continue to add in lots of about 2000 shares a time.
On other stocks I hold some are up over 40%, but most are down by a good margin. On paper ignoring dividends, my last years gains have been wiped and I'm even.
I don't like it, but I've seen it before and if the company is good you only suffer a loss at point of sale.
For myself I turn it to a positive and buy more stock when I can.

The fear of a recession are building, and it looks all but inevitable.
It also looks like there is some movement of money from growth to value shares.
If you look at sectors that are unlikly to do well in a recession you can see the money moving being reflected in the SP.
I think the drop in SP seen accross a few lithium miners is just a reaction to the growing fear of a global recession.
I think its likely to be a profitable stock to be in with a 3 to 5 year horizon, but I also think its going lower in the short term. It dosen't mean anything is wrong with the company its just the markets reacting to the general doom and gloom.
I did consider selling and buying back later, but in my case I have only opened a small initial holding of 3000 shares while I wait to invest properly when I think the time is right. So I didn't think it was worth messing with.

Jwd222

What is the significance of £5.50, it comes up a bit in your posts?

CRK
Its a resourse explorer and developer, they usually are.
However if you pick one that delivers, investors usually do well.
Its early days we probably wont know if its a winner for a few years yet.
Its probably got further to fall, but hopefully will claw its way back up on news of substance.
My average is 12.36p and I understood this is a high risk stock, so will continue to hold and see how it plays out.

Lithium in the ground is abundant.
The money will go to those who start to process it.
Those late to the party will miss out on the best Lithium prices as it will even out as more Lithium mined over the next 5 to 10 years.
It will still be a good thing to be in but those early producers will get a good head start and best profit margins.
Whoever starts to produce Lithium in Europe should see the SP rise nicely, as will any mines that are bought out.
I'm in CUSN, AAL, EMH, BHL, KOD and ZNWD. I'm hoping one of them will do well within the next 5 years or so.

Insurance is so unloved at the moment, but ADM seems to be hit harder than some of its peers.
Happy to hold for the dividend while waiting for a little improvement in the SP.

VII
Again thank you for your patience and taking the time to explain it.
ATB

The SP in the short term (12 months) is anyones guess, but I can see £5 as likely, I don't think £6 is impossible, but in the near term (2 years) I think £10 unlikely.
If fuel prices continue to increase at pace there will come a point where its just not affordable, I don't know at what point that happens or what it would look like, but I do know I don't want to find out.
I believe £2 a litre has been reported recently, thats not good but its manageable despite the price increases it causes to other products and services.
What happens at £3 a litre, or £4 or £5 etc. At some point it is just not affordable whether we 'need' it or not.
I intend to hold BP. long term and hopefully see it transform into a renewable energy giant, but if I see the tipping point nearing I will reluctantly sell, but at that point I think I will probably have bigger things to worry about.

VII
Thank you for that link, much appreciated.
Just to make sure I understand it correctly, there are 673,218 shares shorted on 31st May.
I don't short stocks so have a limited understanding, although I do understand the concept.
CUSN have 285.85 million shares in issue, it looks like a very small % of the stock being shorted.
On 15th Nov 2021 it looks like 2.993 million shares were shorted and you could agrue the SP fell by 0.42p the following day, although the SP appears to be within a normal trading range for the stock.
Perhaps someone with a better understanding than me could comment on the impact on the stock even with only a small % being shorted.

VII
How can you see there are short positions, it seems a poor pick for shorting, it would be outside most traders risk/reward zone.
Looks more like profit taking to me, the rinse and repeat brigade.
Although in fairness this looks like a reasonable candidate for a few trades.

I dont understand the suggestion that ZNWD will be in production next year as stated in the article 'output is due to begin next year'.
The last update I saw from Anton Du Plessis on Youtube suggested 2025 as a potential production date and I would assume he would know better than most.
Any idea where TMF obtained their information.
TMF writers are at times painfully lacking in their research.

Mostly its the rising tide lifting all ships.
It matters not, the SP ups and downs are just background noise to what is a solid long term stock with a reasonable dividend that is well covered.

TinkerT
I apologise, I just realised my post is smug, and thats not what I intended.
I should have just said I think BP is a very good stock and would be unlikly to reduce my holding.
I know exactly what it is like to buy in at a higher price only to see it fall and read other posters stating how they bought at super low prices.
ATB

I've only held BP since September 2020. In that time period to date I'm showing a 65.3% profit including unrealised gains at current SP, dividends, and 1 sell/buy.
I can only see me increasing my holding if the prices dips low enough to make it worthwhile.

If it results in a drop in the SP today, I will probsbly add to my holding. I bought another 200 shares yesterday below £18, and I see anything below that price as good value at the moment.
I have now got limited free cash left to invest but if it goes to £17, I will add another 200.
If it drop further next week I will again add more.
SSE is an extraordinary green energy play and I will continue to add when appropriate.

I suspect that many companies will now think carefully about any RNS they release with terms like 'profits exceeded forecasts'.
Profit has now it would seem become a dirty word to be spat out at companies in defiance as I hold out my hand for support from our caring government.

Well it looks like the 'windfall tax' gates have opened on oilies, and its not just the one off hit I was expecting. The only silver lining is the tax breaks announced alongside the WT for investment. SSE and many other green energy companies are heavy on investment, so could be left alone, or at least the impact minimised.
Its very unsettling though as its set a precedent, a company in hard times is on their own, but if you make too much money we will want a bigger slice of the pie.
Why on earth would any business want to trade in that environment, the legislators have in my opinion made a bad choice with the WT if they want companies to come to the UK, and I think they know it hence the attractive tax breaks to soften the blow.
Perhaps if they really wanted to help they would reduce tax on fuels, which is aimed solely at the consumer, and directly increases the cost of all products through increased transport, heating and manufacturing costs.

Jwd222
I suspect not in the foreseeable future now the WT has been announced.
I would expect a drop in the SP today.
Its not all bad news though, the tax breaks on investment could be used to good effect and I suspect BP. are already looking at this.
It depends on how smart long term investors are, personally I would be happy to see a reduction in the divi and huge spending on development for the next couple of years to maximise the tax breaks.
Tax will reduce the long term value of the company, once paid the funds are lost and the company is devalued by that same amount, but if invested for future growth those same funds will increase company value and future profits. the only problem is to ensure that the investment is well planned to maximise that growth. It is possible that although its difficult to see, long term it could help BP transition to green energy faster and maybe even at less cost.
I have no doubt I'm over simplyfying things, just thinking out loud really. BP is a huge beast with some very clever people working for it, I have confidence they will make the best of an unfair situation.