Member Info for Paul2566

Oleg Ustenko, a leading adviser to Ukraine's president warns BP stands to receive £580m in "blood money" from Rosneft dividends through its investments in Russia.

This is outrageous, BP has already written off £20bn in Rosneft and has already stated it will not receive any further income from Russia. Mr Ustenko needs to retract that statement.

Mr Ustenko releasing statements like this does little to help Ukraine, and sounds too much like something Russia would say.

spights
Yes LLOY is one of the two banks I hold, its very dependant on the UK economy so I have the other which is focused further afield.
I'm still a litle undecided on LLOY so have only a little skin in that game, but I did very well with it about 25 years ago.

I only went back 12 years, and even that timeline is of little relevance I believe. The last 10 years has changed the energy outlook considerably and BP is a different animal today. For better or worse remains to be seen, but I'm hopeful.
In the short term I can see that the SP could rise further, medium term I think it will drop back a little, but long term is very much up in the air, but I can see the potential.
Its fairly easy for me to hold long term as I am fortunate to have a very low all costs average with this stock. I can't see huge capital growth from where we are now but I'm really only here for the dividends, and personally I intend to add when the price is right, just not at the moment.
Just now I like a couple of banks, some green energy, certain REITS, insurance, and a couple of outliers in the Li mining sector.

Had a closer look at days highs and lows in October 2018, I stand corrected a trading high of £6.0318 was shown on 4th October.

£5.98 in October 2018 is the higest SP I could find over the last 12 years, not that this means anything at all.

For anyone who isn't aware of this, its worth a look. Personally I think this is a good future revenue generator for BP.

Fozdog
I cannot argue against any of your comments, and to be honest my knowledge of junior miners/developers is limited beind more at home with the likes of RIO (which I hold). Last year I saw a real opportunity with LI juniors, but found them difficult to value, hence I picked 6 with the view that hopefully one would come good and about half would be a total loss. I view them as generally high risk/reward propositions and initally only allocated around 1% of my portfolio to each. I have increased my holding to 3% in one of those companies as I percieve it to have de-risked slightly. The DFS would most likely see me increase my exposure to ZNWD. I think given recent events Europe needs to secure localised production of ore and manufacturing of products/materials, and think funding will not be an issue, although of course the cost of that funding may not be ideal.
As to where that funding may come from, its anyones guess. Maybe in part from manufacturers or perhaps by entering into partnership with a larger established miner. RIO has already shown interest in aquiring another operation and I'm sure others will be doing the same.

Personally the thing I found most interesting in the RNS was the mention of a BFS by the end of 2023. If achieved and favorable that would potentially set the clock on the point where production may become a reality, and would at that point suggest production somewhere around 2025/2026.
IF favorable I would expect an increase in interest from institutional investors and a substantial steady rise in the SP post DFS.
If like me you are looking for long term returns the rise in SP means little, but it would be nice to see none the less.

SlickMongoose
I agree its one of the best insurers, I have also had my personal house and vehicle insurance with them for a good few years now, so that must say something about them.
I also hold AV., DLG and LGEN. Of the 4 DLG is the only one I'm a little uncomfortable with, and I've allowed myself to get a bit heavy in this sector as together they account for about 30% of my portfolio so I my trim out one of them over the next few years. It will probably be DLG as things stand but that may change. ADM is my largest single stock accounting for about 10% of my portfolio.
Insurers are just so unloved at the moment but I have great faith in the sector as a long term foundation for investment.

I,ve held ADM for nearly 4 years, continued adding on the way up and chased it a little on the way down. Unfortunately like many (excluding dividends) like many I'm down (-23%) and even including dividends that still equates to a £5k loss.
I don't really believe the current SP and IMHO it seems oversold.
I'm holding and expecting (hoping) it will get back upto a SP around £25, but think it will take 2 or 3 years.
Interested to hear views from others.

I should also add that there are many sites that will give you an estimate of divividend yield as a % based on the current SP, I believe it sits around 3.24% so in the original question that would be about £32.4 per £1000 over a year (or £8.4 per quarter). In effect if you purchased the stock at a lower price, the % return on your original investment will be better.
My average is £2.894 and there will be many with a lower average who have held the stock for some time and continue to enjoy good returns.
I believe Jakers statement below is an accurate explanation of how the dividend is converted from $ to £ for the purpose of the dividend payment which is why my estimate of dividend can only be approximate.

I should add the dividend I quoted is approximate due to the reasons stated by beetrootjuice below.

I believe the dividend was declared on or about 26th November 2021 and is 5.241p per share. It is allocated per share rather than per £1 or as in your question per £1000.
Ex-dividend is the relevant date to simplify who does or does not get the dividend. You may see the term 'Record Date', for the PI you can easily ignor that and concentrate on the Ex-dividend date.
If a share holder holds the stock at start of business on the x-div date they will get the dividend even if they sell it immediately after, a person who aquires the stock on the x-div date will not receive the next dividend.
Most stocks will suffer some sort of fall in SP at opening of business on the x-div day, and a rise in SP on the lead up to the x-div day.
Hope that makes sense.

ToD
Well I followed suit today, sold at £1.3017, it wasn't a big holding, only 9703 shares, but I'm fairly confident I can get back in at £1.25 or lower to increase my holding by a few hundred shares. I'm still holding SSE and UKW in larger quanties so I shouldn't miss out on the sector entirely if I've made a booboo, and I've managed to make a few quid on TRIG, if I include the dividends, its quite a nice return.
I don't normally trade, but at the moment it looks prudent to take a little risk with the odd stock here and there.

This looks like a very odd error to make.

I can't remember seeing a less competent government than this one, and given what we have had previously, that saying something.

To be honest, I'm not convinced even the gov know what they are doing.

No way to tell what the SP will be in 12 months, but if I had to guess I'd say somewhere in the 60p to 70p range.
If/when product starts to be sold I would hope for a sharp increase.

Clued
You may be right, and like I said they could well go lower again. I don't think you made an error buying at 15.62, I just set myself a buy price, and for a change stuck to it. I've held SSE for quite a few years and see them as a good dividend stock with the dividend well covered. As a bonus I think they are cheap anywhere under £16 and a buy upto £18. The £18 is not based on value but at that price the dividend starts to become less appealing for me personally. Unlike many I like company share buy backs for a number of reasons.

Its rare to get below my average so added another 116 at a pinch over £14.90.
It may well go lower but if I keep waiting for the bottom I would never buy. GLA