Member Info for Pask

Cheers @tidal_lover. Take what I say with a pinch of salt, as there is too much information here over multiple periods for me to get a clear sense what the outcome will be.

Jesus christ, there's so much information I cannot make an adequate guess.

https://wam.highland.gov.uk/wam/files/EFC920CE9FA7EA05E9195F0D405306A0/pdf/24_02621_S36-PROPOSED_SITE_LAYOUT_PLAN-3530680.pdf

They have an attenuation pond though and an existing watercourse / drain.

The general sense in the summary is that SAE have not put in adequate Battery Safety Management Plans, fire safety precautions, etc. This was intended to come afterwards, but not before. This may not get through based on these considerations. Nonetheless, it’s gone to the Scottish Government, so it is a bit of a coin toss tbh.

There's a specific list of objections here:

https://wam.highland.gov.uk/wam/files/A2655267626BA0446A8B95D154504A23/pdf/24_02621_S36-Ms_Kathrin_Haltiner-3381208.pdf

The rest seem to be just your standard NIMBY. I've been looking through it, and it may or may not go through. Article 36. is of concern, but there is quite a lot here.

"Councillors have submitted an objection, but officials have warned the objection may not hold up when scrutinised by Scottish Ministers."

The biggest thing I can see is fire saftey concerns. You would need a ton of water to put out a lithium battery fire in worst case scenario. You could still make an argument that this would not be reasonably speaking a major issue, so long as SAE has systems in place to mitigate it. The fire would most likely be localised to the site, as there isn't anywhere it could really escape to as far as I can see. There are also water tanks on site in the specification, so this has been thought through.

Yep, given GBE has been taking photos in Wales at the other place, the goverment does seem to have significant intrest in this sector. GBE has been permited to use £300mil in offshore wind recently. I doubt we'll see that kind of money, but they are active at the moment and will be looking at prospective projects to help develop for goverment coffers.

I hate waiting, but at this point we're just waiting for the spark which ignites the fire IMO. The issue is, you can't predict when that will happen as it is the goverment who has to make a move. Other tidal projects (such as the one near the Isle of Wight) have failed to win CfDs and are struggling. We at least have goverment support, and at least (some) assurance through the CfDs that they intend to support this sector.

This has also caught my eye: Shell it seems have backed a wave energy pilot in the states.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/shell-backs-wave-energy-project-offshore-us/

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/shell-backed-wave-energy-pilot-in-la-moves-ahead-with-local-floater-build/

What's interesting is that they have backed a wave energy pilot in the states, but not so here as far as I can tell. I know we are tidal stream, but this confirms that Shell is dabbling in Marine energy. It would be interesting to know (i) their intentions in doing so and if (ii) there have been conversations before between SAE and similar institutions with deep pockets, such that they are at least aware of SAE. If GBE or some other governmental body backed us, then it seems a reasonable extrapolation that something like Shell or some other big institutional body could back us.

It may be a competitor, but at least it confirms GBE is interested in this area.

https://businessnewswales.com/great-british-energy-chair-visits-morlais-tidal-energy-site/

Yeah, there's a few loose threads about which have not been resolved regarding project updates.

"The second tranche of the loan will be unlocked once the 500MWh AW2 project obtains planning approval, expected later this year. Importantly, grid connections — a common stumbling block in battery storage — are already secured for both projects. Repayment of the loan will be managed through initial distributions from AW1 and proceeds from the AW2 land lease, further strengthening SAE’s financial outlook as it brings these developments online."

Is this new information? It's the first time I have seen this.

I'm curious as to what the NAV per share would be upon a successful completion of financial close. I'll go with the more conservative estimate, rather than liberal.

“CCR’s Strategic Premises Fund is contributing vital funds on a commercial loan basis alongside private sector investment to help make this site viable for energy storage. Repurposing the former power station at Uskmouth delivers multiple benefits for local communities, businesses, the environment and wider society. This project demonstrates what can happen when the public and private sectors combine to support our energy needs for the future.”

Will be intresting if there is already private sector finance in the pipeline, or if SAE are still searching for it. They were in talks with a number of intrested parties, but the £56.5 figure is very specific in my view. I would assume CCR would not give the loan to SAE without prior assurances from private sector investors, so it would be intresting to see what happens in this space.

There's more info on the CCR website:

https://www.cardiffcapitalregion.wales/news-events/latest-news/cardiff-capital-region-loan-enables-the-development-of-battery-storage-in-newport/

"The loan will accelerate the delivery of the Uskmouth facility by funding early pre-construction and construction associated with the Afon Wysg 1 (AW1) project and alongside an estimated additional sum of £56.5m of private sector finance will fund upfront works, battery equipment, construction, and grid connection. "

To be honest, £8.5m for 2028 isn't really that much in the grand scheme of things. It's fairly small.

They acknowledge that the industry is ready to grow itself, but they want information about the impact of large-scale arrays. There is concern that while seals avoid MeyGen turbines during peak hours, this could cause ecological displacement in larger arrays. Granted, this seems like a chicken and egg situation, so should not impact us in its current stage of development. Full capacity. Maybe. The Crown Estate at least does seem interested enough to fund this kind of research which was published the 31st of March this year. I assume they are considering it as a potential investment to say the least, especially if they are facilitating data gathering to make future infrastructure decisions.

Do you think this will be a problem for us at this stage? I suppouse we need to build the next stage of MeyGen, before we can gather the evidence, so we might not have any opposition just yet.

"Across the SeaGen, Shetland Tidal Array, and MeyGen Tidal Energy Project case studies, four of the reports concluded that there was localised avoidance of the turbine when in operation, similarly suggesting collision risk maybe be lower than

previously perceived for single and small-scale arrays. However, larger-scale arrays still warrant further investigation, especially if avoidance and displacement also occur from potentially important areas for marine species’ life cycles."

Your link was filtered, but managed to find the article. Also, I found this which slipped me by. It's a Crown Estate paper with reference to MeyGen. I haven't had a chance to look at it, but it appears to be mostly going over Marine conservation concerns.

https://www.marinedataexchange.co.uk/details/TCE-4144/2024-2025-the-crown-estate-and-abpmer-tidal-stream-energy-project-collision-risk-data-and-evidence-summary

I suspect delays TBH. Someone could email them for confirmation, but this is what I have in mind. If the delays last for more than 2-3 months, than I'd start to be a bit more concerned.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but are we not expecting confirmation of the Quinbook project completion before we move on to operating and owning our own BESS portfolio? My mental timeline of SAE events becomes a bit blurred on occasion.

"It is expected that through the offshore wind sector, combined with carbon capture and storage and the tidal sector (wave energy in the longer term), CES could enable £97.1 billion in investment over the next 10-15 years."

"The incentives of CES and its tenants are aligned (for example, in some industries rent is paid as a share of production revenues) and this encourages a strong working relationship, as CES and its tenants have shared interests."

"Due to its commercial funding, it is also able to act in a way that other bodies may be too constrained to do, providing bridging investments (generally receiving minimal yet commercially acceptable returns), adding capacity to emerging sectors and funding studies that no one else is able to commit to in the first instance, stimulating and leveraging further investment."

So, between £6.47-9.71 billion a year in investment overall. The pot for tidal is smaller however. I'm looking on page 25 now. If its £500mil for tidal/wave specifically over the next 10-15 years, then that would get between £33.3-50mil per year in investment from CES for the area.

Slowed progress most likely.