Member Info for Pappiklon

Bangladesh is 5 hours ahead of us, seems to me over the last few months most of the buying happens in the morning, early afternoon. Is it a coincidence that now the internet and mobile communication is mostly restored in Bangladesh we have a pick up in large buys again?

Seems like an age but It's only 3 months since this article and all the press, which in reality is a small amount of time in the machinations of Politics and getting a mega billion $ projects ducks lined up. Things have got steadily worse in the economy since then and they are increasingly realising they need to move towards self sufficiency because the handouts are drying up.

'the government is left with no other option but to explore and exploiting own coal resources'

https://ep-bd.com/view/details/article/MTAxMDQ%3D/title?q=ruling+party+and+its+pre-election+pledge+for+minin

Thanks Searcher, can't help but wonder if that is one of the commitments they wanted reiterated to progress further

The reality for Bangladesh is that without reliable power infrastructure why would the Chinese or any other business even consider investing in the country, interesting comment in this article around just that.

Countries like Vietnam and Cambodia have already capitalised on this due to favourable trade policies, supportive infrastructure and incentives that have made them preferred destinations for business relocation from China. Bangladesh, as of now, has not been able to make itself a place of choice in this regard. Clearly, exploiting this opportunity hinges on infrastructural and logistics services including among others ready availability of power and energy'

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/editorial/collaboration-with-china-to-enhance-business

Searcher. I can't think of a worse career than trawling through BD newspapers , you Tube, etc etc. It drives me nuts, I can tell you more about whats happening in Bangladesh than I can in the UK . ...and I know you are at it more than I am, A large part of my relief after 16+ years of this will be not having to of that anymore, the return on investment will be an added bonus!

Very interesting that this has come out now as the PM’s China visit commenced. Think you have to look at the source of the article, which was originally published in their print edition. Kalbela is a startup Bangla paper with less than 5k distribution and understood to have strong ties to Indian lobbyists. The article translation is utter Tosh, I had to ask Searcher for the translation and who the poster was because I already had them on ignore.

Interesting comment in this article about China Funding Rail links,

'' If China agrees to provide the loan for this project, then it’s likely to be implemented under the g2g project. In that case, the Chinese government will choose the contractor for the projects.''

In that case if they were funding any rail or road infrastructure around Phulbari it would have to go to a chinese chosen contractor....

https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/58jzlayaun

Thanks Searcher for the reminder of the level of planning, deals, cordination etc and apart from the commercial contracts there is the cross ministerial planning/deal/decision making, there are several ministries invloved, it is my understanding that a 'potential' delay since we had all the newsflow about the presentation has been the abscence of one of the decision making ministers due to illness and that he is now back at work

Sorry just reread your post seems thats what you are saying anyway....duuh !

YKIR, thats not my understanding in the past where I have asked the company what would be the scenario if Polo went over the 30% and were required to make an offer who would vote at the EGM, they do not then vote again at the EGM it's the other shareholders who get to vote on the offer, nor the proposer.

Duster re appropriation from gcm of its rights there's protection via trade / investments signed with UK and there's their own Foreign Private Investment (Promotion and Protection) Act of 1980 which specifically states no foreign investor's project will be exproproated or suffer anything that even looks like that.

Thanks Adamk87 for your reasoned posts of late. As an adjunct to your comment re the overburden, when we got the figures on the value I thought wow they are going to remove that before they even get to the coal, does it mean there is apps 5bn in cashflow in the first few years and if so what share would go to PC, too good to be true so I asked someone who would know. I was told because they op in stages moving and restoring the land what it actually equated to was appx 500m a year over a 30 year life of the mine, yes 500m a year, and there is no huge cost either because it’s removal is part of the mining deal with PC, any related cost is in removal from site, storage, marketing etc there is no major capital expenditure as that is already included in the PC contract to get to coal'

Now theres a thing, Summit would have been thinking years ahead to commission this mega monster, thats the reality of mega projects and PC with GCM have been too since those mou’s were signed, I know GCM have regular planning meetings with PC, that was part of a conversation had at the AGM, and the government, inept as they may have seemed at times (ain't they all) could not announce anything till certain things were put in place. (imho)

PR wise the next month as they suffer big gas shortages and power cuts would be a good time to announce they are going ahead with Phulbari. Power cuts already happening and they have an even bigger deficit in gas supply as a consequence of this. They know they have to diversify and beef up energy security and Phulbari is their golden egg for some relief, The PM Hasina is a genius for saving it's exploration till now (PR stance)

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/summit-requests-force-majeure-as-fsru-function-halts

They really are deeply entwined.

A Chinese company named ‘Power China’ had sent a proposal to the water development board for a detailed visibility study of the project, which is now under the consideration of the development, the Prime Minister told the house.

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/national/proposal-for-feasibility-study-for-teesta-project-by-chinese-co-under-consideration-pm

2 stories one under the other in the BD Financial Express.

Reserves drop to $13.2Bn, inflation rises to 9.89pc, both going the opposite way to their projections. They really need to do something radically different quickly !

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/bangladesh/bangladeshs-net-international-reserves-shrink-to-1322b

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/bangladesh/inflation-soars-to-989pc-in-may

'The foundation of economic and trade cooperation between China and Bangladesh is solid, extensive, and diverse. In terms of trade, China has maintained its position as Bangladesh's largest trading partner for 13 consecutive years, with bilateral goods trade reaching $24 billion in 2023, he added.

'In terms of investment, China's FDI stock in Bangladesh reached $3.2 billion by 2023, making China the second-largest investing country in Bangladesh.'

'In terms of contracting, Chinese enterprises have constructed 7 railways, 12 roads, 21 bridges, and 31 power plants in Bangladesh.'

'China and Bangladesh are strategic partners which will be further upgraded in the future'.

'“In the long term, the decrease in prices of raw materials for Bangladeshi products will definitely enhance their competitiveness in the international market, laying a solid foundation for Bangladesh to continuously increase its foreign exchange reserves,” he mentioned.

He stated that the China-Bangladesh FTA will also make China’s investment in Bangladesh more convenient and efficient'

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/national/bangladesh-china-fta-to-undoubtedly-open-new-chapter-in-ties-ushering-in-golden-era-of-economic-trade-cooperation-ambassador-yao

Less money to pay for those inports which they already can't pay for, but there is a solution...

https://today.thefinancialexpress.com.bd/first-page/capacity-payments-feared-to-mount-significantly-1717265344

'Dozens of gas-fired plants are now kept idle due to gas crisis and the BPDB has been counting capacity payment on them'

Something is going to (have to) change

It's not an in the same league, we pay our debts and don't default they can't and the more indebted they get the worse their financial crisis is, to borrow money in Bangladesh interest rates are around 14%, their external loans not just for energy but all those infrastructure loans in $ which are coming due have all just increased by around 5% because the Takha has been devalued further, Non Performing Loans in some banks are at around 30% they can't just put a sucking plaster on these problems they need to take radical steps that involve big numbers, the only project that can them some pretty immediate relief (2 years) is Phulbari, there are moves to digitise the tax system and increase the tax take (will take years and the tax is in Takha not $) , if they find anymore gas thats 8 years away in the meantime the supply is declining, local coal from any of the other mines is 6 plus years away..... they need some hope and to show their lenders they are doing something other than exacerbating the situation.