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I know the market cap is low for some institutions but I would have thought that HMI has matured to the stage where some institutions would be interested in taking a stake especially if there is a large investor looking to sell out. There is large interest at the moment from funds in having exposure to the fertilizer industry and according to Brian HMI is now at a stage where it will be a 'cash cow' for many years. When asked in July about interest from institutions he said the entities he has been in touch with are more likely to want to acquire the whole company than take a smaller stake.

GLR is my favourite from Mr Bird's stable. It has a multitude of projects with great potential.
It only takes one of them to be successful for the company to pay off big time for shareholders.
Importantly, it is cashed up and with the likelihood of another big cash injection from the Glenover asset sale in the coming weeks.

Looking forward to some interaction with BM this week which should restore confidence after the recent plunge in the share price

It would be good to know in the interview how much uptake there has been for this line of credit for clients:

'Agreement with Banco do Brasil

An agreement has been signed with Banco do Brasil, whereby Harvest's clients will now be able to access the bank's rural line of credit to fund their orders of KPFértil up to a total amount of R$5.0 million per client (about US$1.0 million). It is expected that with the continuous relationship with Banco do Brasil, the size of the line of credit should increase over time.



Banco do Brasil is the country's largest provider of rural credit to the giant Brazilian agriculture industry. The benefit of the line of credit to Harvest is threefold: not only will it assist the sales strategy of the Company's commercial department providing an important marketing tool to offer clients, but it will also provide additional working capital flexibility with a decreased credit risk profile of its clients' portfolio.'

The results of the previous phase 2 trial showed a lower dose of Lupuzor was more effective than a higher dose.
This is very unusual and is one of the reasons that people doubted the efficacy of Lupuzor.
It now looks like the FDA will require another phase 2 study to determine the optimum dose first before it will authorise a phase 3 study. Avion will have to decide if it wants to go ahead with this as it will require significantly more funding and of course a long delay

Note how the company is now referring to 'clinical programme' as the next step and not a phase 3 trial. That RTO me indicates another phase 2 trial is required to determine an optimum dose for Lupuzor. You can't just increase the dose in a phase 3 trial, you have to run a separate trial on the dose first.

It sounds like the FDA want another trial to be run prior to a phase 3 trial to determine the optimum dose for Lupuzor.
Presumably that would run for 12 months then probably another 6-12 months to assess the results and setup a new phase 3 trial that would take 24 months so you could be looking at 2027 until phase 3 results if Avion want to go ahead and fund it all.

It's also worth noting that GBP has fallen around 25% against the Brazilian Real so far this year which increases the value of HMI's earnings in GBP terms. I don't think this has been factored into the share price and it makes HMI a good hedge against the fall in the pound

The company has already exceeded the 150,000 tonnes guidance for 2022 with a spare quarter in hand. They are expecting a 'robust' Q4 so not sure how see that as being 'decimated by local competition ' LOL

Another point that is worth emphasising is that Brian confirmed in the July Investor Meet presentation that there had already been 3 price increases of the product this year and they were looking at increasing prices for a fourth time in response to general market prices of fertilizers increasing around 170%.

These price increases won't show up in the accounts until the orders have been processed and invoiced so not only will the next couple of accounts releases show a big boost to revenue and profits from higher sales levels but also from a significant increase in the product price

So the final accounts for this year and next year's interims are pretty much guaranteed to show a huge growth in revenue and profits

Brian must have read my last post :-))

It would be good if Brian clarified this as there is clearly some confusion which results in a hit to the share price.
I would also think that actual sales prices in H2 will be higher than in the H1 figures as the interim results are likely based on orders from last year before fertilizer prices went ballistic

I know it's not guaranteed but just to clarify my interpretation is the guidance in the interim accounts suggests that the target is for 150,000 tonnes of actual sales by the year end which will be the figure that revenue is based on. This is separate from the sales orders quoted each quarter where there is a long lag before they show up in the financial accounts as actual sales

The interim figures just released are based on sales of 35,000 tonnes and the guidance suggests that the figures for the forthcoming final results will be based on a target of 150,000 tonnes. So H2 figures should be based on sales of 115,000 tonnes which is a massive jump from the interims just reported.

Is my understanding of this correct?

What was the name of the AIM listed company that drilled a well earlier this year with a 90% chance of success but the well was a duster?

During Q3 2022 the Company recorded sales orders totalling 32,676 (Q3 2021: 46,166 tonnes).

I bet not many shareholders were expecting a 30% year on year drop in Q3 sales

You can't just look at the current market cap as that will increase significantly if new funds are raised at a low share price.
Also you have to include the negative $20million working capital plus $20m in debt.

There will likely be a broker option so people can buy at the placing price.
Most placings are now structured that way to allow retail participation

There's no point buying at the moment IMHO until the company confirms whether it has been successful in raising sufficient capital and on what terms. Until then the share price is likely to continue to slide and people are just burning their money