Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Note the comment re Trafigura:-
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Londons-Mandara-Capital-Closes-Doors-After-13-Years-in-Oil-Trading.html
How long before Polus declare 30% ?
I have a feeling 11p is on the near horizon. This is slowly building. Shame no update today but then there are the Trafigura loan conditions to abide by.
The bid is jumping all over the place but there does appear to be buying strength. I recon the algos have been at the Christmas sherry.
G_G_G, congrats on your shrewd purchase of SHG. Easy to get fixated on one share when there are many opportunities elsewhere. I've sold down a few i3e & enog & purchased a small stake in DEC after watching for months. PS - I'd be very happy for you to buy back >8m shares in i3e, it needs a bit of a kick up the rear. GLA
Hedging Programme
"i3's risk management strategy currently protects USD ~51.02 million (CAD 67.86 million) of net operating income for 2023 with current hedges in place to cover 39%, 23%, 21% and 28% of the Company's projected Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2023 production volumes, respectively. i3's 2023 hedges are shown in the below chart, with additional information provided below in notes 14 and note 19 to the H1 2023 Interim Consolidated Financial Statements:"
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/I3E/interim-report-and-operational-update-for-h1-2023-se6cka07e6omd68.html
Market cap £107m for 22k boe per day equates to about £5000 per 1k boe per day. Could i3e buy 5000 boe per day for £25m deploying the unused part of the Trafigura loan & part of the concertina element available but not drawn down ?
This is what the market is pricing this company & it's oil & gas production at the moment.
Is this a Schrödinger's cat moment. Do not look at the price & you have made neither a profit nor a loss.
Probably a reaction to the COP28 talks about agreeing to transition away from fossil fuels.
Meanwhile, business as usual.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-67674841
Expecting 2024 Budget, Guidance & January dividend declaration on Thursday 21st Dec (a day before the Winter Solstice).
Worth re-reading the RNS from 22nd December last year (2022) to see how expectations fell a little flat this year. Despite weak O&G prices, the hedging will provide some support and winter may yet materialise.
I think the January dividend of 0.2565p will be honoured. Personally, I would support a 15 - 20% cut in the dividend if it would support the capital budget going forward. An 8% yield would still be very reasonable. Perhaps a shareholder vote would be in order to demonstrate Majid hasn't forgotten his PI base. GLA
I feel a purchase is imminent as under current O&G prices it may be cheaper to buy rather than drill. This was part of i3e's strategy. Buy low, drill high. They have the CAD$ 25m accordion facility to draw on. They should also refinance at a reduced rate next year to reduce costs. Either that or a cash rich predator will come along & do the same & clear the outstanding loan amount.
"I've given up on the commodity. It's a 6 D scam. This is a game for superpowers to play, not you or I or I3.."
And yet you are here.
I'm certain Majid is looking at ways to monetise the reserves more quickly. It's like owning a development plot but not having the funds to build the housing estate. A deal will be done & I'm looking at >12p very soon. imo dyor etc.
Just added another 100k. Nothing to stop them re-financing a year down the road at lower rates or maybe extend the loan to reduce monthly payments or both, especially if this will accelerate production growth. Perhaps 2024 will be a better year especially with the new LNG plant mentioned.
All being well, there should be a 0.2565p dividend payable in January but it has not been declared yet.
Makes you wonder whether anyone has caught a glimpse of tomorrow's cheese & whiney party (sorry, presentation) in Mayfair. Got to be a large accumulation here with all the AT trades.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/435
This is also well timed for next Thursdays Proactive One2One to demonstrate to their audience their belief in the value of i3e. It's also hopefully at the low point now.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/435
Options
Nothing to stop anyone buying at these lows while stocks last. I added yesterday too. Price had just got very silly in a Pythonesque kind of way.
https://youtu.be/M8VAZsYlt2Q?si=BFt7uZDYHeiUc2NB
I3e, best Black Friday deal around.