Member Info for oxygen

Interesting comments from Ruffer Investment Mgmt’s YE Report this am.

“ Where we are taking risk is in Commodities….Oil and other commodities (are) a key component of our growth assets …we have around 7% in energy assets” Finally adding that “ Financial positioning has been blown out, sinking to levels not seen since 2007. We believe this asymmetry is in our favour ; commodities seem to be pricing in a recession, equities are not “.

Suspect they are not the only one’s positioning themselves before the bandwagon appears !

Tommo….. refreshing to read some common sense. Thks for posting.

@t4g. The Apparel Rental Mkt is currently tiny , circa £230m , but growing fast and with the likes of 30 Day hire period offerings, neatly covers Holidays & Special Occasions. As said this shouldn’t impact BOO but slick operators will start making inroads into some Companies markets if, as in the US, asset Rental becomes more widely accepted locally. As mentioned before this shouldn’t impact here, unless someone like Simon Wolfson suddenly shows interest !

Again as the Times reports today, the clothing rental market is growing fast, why buy when you can hire 5 to 7 outfits for the price of one. This shouldn’t trouble BOO with their lower end pricing model, but it just again highlights how fast one time healthy markets can be eroded by macro economics and fast online operators.

The Times seems to have an unhealthy obsession with BOO, but it again highlights how the Retail investor is disadvantaged when having to rely on media outlets for its information that’s likely to have been known for days / weeks within City circles. Likely answers why there was a recent uptick in Short positions recently, such positions aren’t based on guesswork. I would wager they currently sit on the right side of the fence.

Suspect we’ll get a Q1 Trading Update next week on day of AGM. As a good defensive stock this should show trading in line with expectations with the Company keeping inflationary factors under control. See little downside from current SP so will be maintaining holding.

I don’t normally take much notice of what analysts say but this one caught my eye, given they’re closer to the asian demand side than many,

“National Australia Bank said in a research note on Friday that it expected the OPEC forecast, if realized, “to deliver oil prices well above $100 a barrel,” adding that the softening value of the U.S. dollar continued to boost commodity prices”.

.

Should have added that as expected and now reported, overseas investment into Britain’s Life Sciences almost halved last year, down nearly £1 billion from the year before. Somehow the Governments has turned one of its target economic growth areas into a sector as welcome as a swordfish in a rubber dinghy. Next they’ll be adding a windfall tax to unexpected profits !

Markets probably awaiting clarity within next up- date as to impact AK is having. Any suggestion that Prod. will be within lower quartile of guidance may not be received well, so we’re back to firmer OP’s as support. Tough game this !

Pending transformational news this needs more than the Retail brigade to move us higher, but with Institutional Funds draining out from a weakened UK, for much higher returns elsewhere eg. US / Global AI stocks, it seems all we have left is each other. Still confident we won’t be disappointed, but we should already be in better shape were it not for Government & BoE mismanagement.

Reuters today “ Oil prices have risen to their highest level in 11 weeks, with the front-month Brent futures contract closing above $80 per barrel for the first time since late April. Output cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia this month and last will remove 75 million barrels from the global market over July and August, if implemented in full “.

Think there’s every reason SA will cut in full given they’re now importing record levels of discounted Russian crude ( a reported 10 fold increase in June YoY) for own consumption but much will no doubt be exported back into the Market for a nice little earner. Little wonder SA are looking at margins if they can squeeze POO higher !

Being 20th July, so look forward to 2.6p per share being paid across later albeit will just re-invest here.

Apologises if already posted but some may be unaware that the UK government said on Tuesday 11th July, that it would no longer require short sellers to publicly disclose their trades on UK companies. Those lobbying for secrecy have won the day , so what you may now read won’t necessarily be correct !

Another piece in the Times ( paraphrased ) that raised a smile ;

Plans to use hydrogen for heating and cooking in up to 2,000 homes in Cheshire have been scrapped after opposition from residents. The hope was to convert part of Whitby in Ellesmere Port into a world-first “hydrogen village” trial as they attempt to prove that the clean-burning fuel can be used as a replacement for planet-warming natural gas. The scrapping of the trial is the latest setback amid signs that the government is cooling on the idea.

Maybe someone looking into the ongoing funding of this realised Ed’s ‘money tree ‘ had recently become deciduous !

Happy with small steps albeit Jefferies must be a joy to work with !

Interesting as it looks like Barakah’s main focus in life is Litigation, supported by Oil Revenue given they seem to sue everyone who’s every worked for them ! Anyway Enquest don’t seem that bothered, FY ‘22 Results refer to no legal issues expected to have a material adverse effect on the Group balance sheet or profitability thus probably already accounted for. Just part of Corporate life with getting hit ‘left-field’ by an EPL putting these irritations into context !

Pal of mine was about to buy a property whose roof was covered by Solar Panels. Was advertised as a sales feature. On checking he found they were installed in the late 90’s thus likely coming to the end of their lifespan ….usually 25/30yrs. Having checked the cost of removing & disposing them , said landfill don’t accept any longer, he reduced his offer price. Never did buy the place as further inspection also revealed underside of said roof had been sprayed with foam. Got me wondering how Fire Brigade tackle such roof fires with water just nicely bouncing off the panels !

Amazed how many generous folk inhabit these BB’s trying to protect us from ourselves. In the outside world I fear many such folk would be trying to nick your wallet instead. Anyway always happy to listen to anyone able to provide specific facts and commentary to support a position, rather than bland rhetoric as the latter gets no one anywhere.

Let’s see what the Half Yr Report delivers in Sept. Not holding my breath !

My frustrations are with HMG , not AB. He’s provided guidance on SH returns, of which he would be the largest beneficiary, but the EPL has more or less closed down investment in the Sector. Look at HBR, they pay a Div. and have a Buyback program yet their own SP is shot to pieces as well. All not helped by Equity being

withdrawn from the Mkt. The BoE’s plan to make us all poorer seems to be working !

.